10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

PJ Walker – 1% – negative 1.4 FD pts 

Justin Fields – 7% –  42.72 FD pts

Cordarrelle Patterson – 5% – 17.8 FD pts

Raheem Mostert – 15.5% – 8.6 FD pts  

Dalvin Cook – 3% – 12.6 FD pts

Romeo Doubs – 8%  – 2.3 FD pts (Injured in 1st Quarter)

Tyler Boyd – 10% – 6.9 FD pts 

DK Metcalf – 8% – 12.2 FD pts 

Evan Engram– 12.8% – 1.3 FD pts 

Jacksonville Jaguars– 4% – 5 FD pts

Another week with a couple of home run calls and a couple of swinging strikeouts but this week we at least identified two low owned guys that were in the nuts in Justin Fields and Cordarrelle Patterson. 

Fields looked dominant last week and weirdly brought two of his receivers along with him in the nuts on DK, with Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet both catching TD passes and winding up in the milly maker, and both were mentioned in the write up on Fields last week as I suggested to NOT run him naked.

Patterson’s touches were limited as he returned from injury but he made them count, getting 13 carries for 44 yards and 2 TD’s. Continues to be one of the most dangerous RB’s in the game when he’s healthy and the matchup is good.

Another week, another one of our WR’s getting injured, which seems to be the trend so far this season. Romeo Doubs went down after a brutal hit in the first quarter and given what happened in the rest of the game he could have had a monster. DK Metcalf grabbed a tuddy but it was Tyler Lockett with the big day for the Seahawks.

In a smash spot, Evan Engram disappointed but I don’t hate the idea of going back to him this week. He got a little chalky as the week went on and because he failed the ownership will be lower going forward.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 2.5%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5500/FD $7200

Starting this week off with a super punt who has struggled the last few weeks but has massive upside if he is rolling, and that man is Jared Goff.

Goff gets to lineup this week against the Bears who are getting torched by ever QB in the league. This defense is nothing like it used to be, and QB’s have feasted here recently, including Tua Tagovailoa (24.08 FD pts) and Dak Prescott (26.4 FD pts) the last two weeks.

Everyone is going to flock to the RBs in this matchup (good luck figuring out which one is going to smash) and we can get correlated leverage on them by playing Goff and the pass catchers. Amon Ra St. Brown will be super popular again but Khalif Raymond is running a ton of routes and getting a nice target share at super cheap price. I don’t hate pairing Goff with D’Andre Swift who didn’t play much last week but saw a bunch of targets and routes when he did.

I’m not touching any of the three TE’s here but forced to pick one I don’t mind rookie 5th round pick James Mitchell as a lotto ticket hoping he finds the end zone again.

Jacoby Brissett QB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $7000

Jacoby Brissett gets one of the prime matchups this week against the Dolphins and their awful secondary. He’s had a ton of time to rest coming off a Thursday night game and saw one of his best rushing outputs of the year last week against the Bengals, getting into the end zone on a scramble.

While the Browns love to pound Nick Chubb they are going to have to throw the ball here to be keep up and that bodes well for Brissett, who could potentially see his highest number of attempts on the season here.

Amari Cooper is obviously the best WR and passing option for Brissett but this game is in Miami and his road splits are atrocious. I prefer Donavon Peoples-Jones (who you will hear more about later) or Harrison Bryant/David Njoku depending on who starts (Njoku is banged up but could play).

Here’s the deal, I don’t think that Brissett is a good QB, BUT given the matchup and the high flying Dolphins offense here, I don’t mind playing him at super low ownership in a game where he will potentially throw it 40+ times.

Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $6000/FD $7300

3 Qb’s this week?! You betcha because my Vikes are playing a big time game against the Bills! Actually it’s because there are only two low owned RB’s in good spots, just play the chalk there this week (especially Saquon Barkley).

In all seriousness though I love this spot for the Vikings. With Josh Allen questionable we’ve seen the spread in this game consistently drop all week and this ‘should’ be a really close, competitive game.

Neither of these defenses are very good and even with Case Keenum potentially at the helm for the Bills I think they should still be able to move the ball effectively against the Vikings.

Cousins has been consistently good all year and is too cheap for this spot. Hasn’t had a big breakout game yet but it’s coming. Easy to pair with Justin Jefferson who is going to want to ball out against Stefon Diggs and I don’t mind the double stack with new TE TJ Hockenson who looked great last week in his debut.

Run it back with Diggs who is going to smash here regardless of who is under center for the Bills.

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David Montgomery RB Chicago Bears

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 10%

Salary: DK $6000/FD $6700

If you are a regular reader of this column you know that I love Justin Fields. We’ve been hammering him at low ownership for weeks and I’m not going to stop here against the Lions BUT this is a massive leverage spot for the running game of the Bears. Monty is the clear number one here and is going to get 14-15 touches. Against good defenses he hasn’t been able to do much, but this is the Lions and they are getting gashed week after week making this a potential smash spot for Monty.

Think there is potential for multiple TD’s here and that would be HUGE in GPP with everyone chasing the massive spot from Fields last week. Now of course Fields could steal all the goal line tuddies again, but I think we see a little bit of regression to the mean here and Monty has a day in a smash spot at low ownership.

Jeff Wilson Jr. RB Miami Dolphins

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5500/FD $6500

I’m a Raheem Mostert believer but the usage that Jeff Wilson Jr. got last week in his debut with the Dolphins was very intriguing, in particular his passing game usage.

Had the exact same usage as Mostert last week with 9 carries but added in 3 catches on 3 targets for 21 yards and a TD.

There aren’t many great spots for low owned RB’s this week and most of them are an RB in a time share like Wilson, but against the Browns I think he has potential to at least 3x his salary here with 4-5x potential.

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Isaiah McKenzie WR Buffalo Bills

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $4700/FD $5200

Everyone is going to play Stefon Diggs in his revenge game against the Vikings, but I continue to be intrigued by the potential for a blow up game from Isaiah McKenzie at low ownership and a super cheap salary.

The situation here for McKenzie is great. Operates almost exclusively out of the slot here which is the prime position to take advantage of on the Vikings D as slot DB Chandon Sullivan is how should I say…not good. And if Josh Allen starts he should be limited at least somewhat in his throwing motion and that could lead him to throwing more short passes to…the slot (or TE, love Dawson Knox too). If Case Keenum plays we know that he loves the slot too as his arm strength isn’t quite what it was when he was throwing for 5k yards at Houston.

Price tag here is outstanding and I’ll be all over him this week, but know that while the ceiling is nice, the floor is pretty low.

Donavon Peoples-Jones WR Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $4300/FD $5700

As you can see above, I think that this is a great spot for Brissett in what is going to have to be a high paced game for them as they try to keep up with the high flying Dolphins offense led by Tua and Tyreek Hill. And while Amari Cooper is the top dog here, DPJ is playing more snaps and his target share isn’t that much lower. Oh and did I mention that this game was IN Miami?

Cooper’s road troubles followed him to Cleveland from Dallas (and Oakland) and he continues to massively struggle away from home. That’s good news for DPJ and he could see a big performance here in place of Cooper.

Deep ball threat, but also has shown his chops as a possession receiver. Has height, weight, and speed advantage on all of the starting DB’s for the Dolphins, making him a really tough matchup. We could also see them try to bracket Cooper which could lead to more open looks as well.

The price tag here, especially on Draftkings is absolutely absurd. Makes so much work in your lineup. Essentially if you play Brissett and DPJ together you can play whoever you want int he rest of your lineup.

Jerry Jeudy WR Denver Broncos 

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 8%

Salary: DK $5700/FD $6400

Jeudy is probably my favorite WR on the slate not named Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson. He’s been the focal point of this offense the last few weeks and gets an ELITE matchup against the Titans and their secondary that has been ravaged by injuries and just isn’t very good.

7, 11, 7 targets the last three weeks and has turned them into 63, 96, and 54 yards respectively. Only one touchdown in that time period though so is due some positive regression there.

Could be a big game coming for him here, and I actually, weirdly, don’t hate Russell Wilson this week either so if you wanted to set up a stack with the two of them I wouldn’t argue though there’s potential we could see a low scoring affair here so it may be safer to just play Jeudy solo.

Dalton Schultz TE Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $3800/FD $5500

Schultz with Dak at the helm is a lock and load play for me every single week. Continues to be under priced and under owned given his usage. If he catches a TD he will be in the nuts on both sites unless someone goes ballistic.

7 targets, 6 catches, 64 yards last week. That stat line is just automatic with Dak throwing him the ball. A TD gets him to 16/17 FD points which is what we are looking for here from our TE, especially on a slate without many great options (Travis Kelce is massively overpriced)

Las Vegas Raiders DST (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $3800/FD $4800

The Indianapolis Colts are starting a QB that is terrible with a head coach that is coaching his first ever NFL game with a coaching staff that has collectively not called plays in ONE NFL game. Oh and their all pro starting RB likely won’t play. Don’t overthink this one. The Raiders aren’t great on defense but they could put up a massive number against the Colts who are in really really bad shape.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

The Gameplan – NFL Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Picks And Betting Angles Breakdown

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