Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 10/15:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. For the postseason, I have created a new sheet under our Cheat Sheets. I look into the Pitch Profile match-ups for each game, a definite MUST READ!
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New York Yankees (-120) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I like the fact that the Yankees are favored because it points to Severino being at his “best”. The Yankees NEED Judge to figure it out otherwise their postseason will be short. Donaldson has looked the best at the plate for them. Ramirez has had success against Severino and is the key to the Guardians’ success.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 in the postseason.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 in the postseason.
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Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Astros – Lance McCullers Jr.
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I expect SEA to be energized by being able to host a playoff game. I know that they could be flat with their backs against the wall but I see them scoring early in this one. McCullers is a difficult match-up so I don’t expect them to knock him around but the crowd energy should provide a quick start, maybe even a 1st inning-France bomb. Kirby has to avoid Yordan right now, the big man is locked in.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .273 in the postseason.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 in the postseason.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Dodgers need to wake up or they will be heading home in a season in which they dominated all year. They have hit a bunch of HRs off of Musgrove. Anderson isn’t the type of pitcher you’d expect to see in an elimination game but here we are. He has been really good against SD this season and he’s actually favored.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 in the postseason.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Ha-Seong Kim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 in the postseason.
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Atlanta Braves (-125) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Phillies – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get the highest run total of any postseason game to this point. Morton has been great in elimination games during his postseason career. The issue is that PHI is playing with a TON of confidence. Harper looks locked in at the plate and gets a great match-up. Acuna might be the key today as I think he needs to go deep.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 in the postseason.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 in the postseason.
Stack of the Day
- PHI/ATL Game
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ronald Acuna Jr
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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