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10 Under 10 – 10 GPP Options under 10% Ownership on Draftkings and Fanduel (Week 8 Main Slate)

10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

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Sep 22, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) avoids the tackle of Oakland Raiders free safety Curtis Riley (35) for a 35 yard touchdown pass from quarterback Kirk Cousins (not shown) during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Marcus Mariota – 3.6% – 12.06 DK pts 

Daniel Jones – 3.5% –  31.78 DK pts 5 points over his ceiling projection

Nick Chubb – 3.65% – 18.7DK pts

Travis Etienne – 5% – 22.9 DK pts  3 points over his ceiling projection

Jeff Wilson Jr. – 1% – 5.4 DK pts

Terry McLaurin – 4%  – 18.3 DK pts 

Hunter Renfrow – 4.6% – 8.5 Dk pts 

Nico Collins – 5% – 6.3 DK pts 

Daniel Bellinger – 2.5% – 2.3 DK pts (injured)

Atlanta Falcons – 2.9% – Negative 1 DK pts

Well things got back to normal this week with a less crazy main slate (at least if you followed this article and played guys like Daniel Jones). Less chalk fail, more chalk smash with guys like Josh Jacobs and Kenneth Walker having monster days and ending up in the nuts.

Marcus Mariota was a big fat zero for this article, but Daniel Jones was the second highest scorer on the slate for QB’s and smashed at less than 4% ownership!

Nick Chubb and Travis Etienne both smashed at just ridiculously low ownership. Etienne going over his ceiling projection. In fact he was so good that the Jags said screw it and traded James Robinson to the Jets!

We also saw exactly what we predicted with Terry McLaurin a return to prominence with Heinicke at the helm, and he smashed value at his price point and ownership.

Daniel Bellinger broke his eye socket and the Falcons got torched, but all in all not a bad week for 10 under 10 and a profitable one for me as I was well over the field on all of these guys.

Another week, another big win for a DFS Army VIP! Big shout out to Scott for taking down an early slate contest on Fanduel for a cool 30k!

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Davis Mills QB Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $5200/FD $6500

Davis Mills?! In this economy?!

Absolutely baby. The Giraffe has been pretty solid all season long, and while he’s not throwing for a ton of yardage, he’s getting over 35 attempts most weeks. Went for 300 and 2 last week against the Raiders and now gets the Titans who have been absolutely torched by everyone and their mother.

Super cheap, and that’s really my strategy this week in GPP, go with the cheaper under owned options without many stud QB’s on the slate that you NEED to play, like a Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes (though Jalen Hurts does qualify).

Pairing him with Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins is my preferred play, but I really only want one of them, with Mills having thrown at most 2 TD’s in a game this year.

Justin Fields QB Chicago Bears

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $5200/FD $6500

I know that I’m playing with fire here as I already got paid off on Fields with him being a core play on Monday night, but I’m ready to go right back to him here at this price point even though the matchup against the Cowboys will be difficult.

Fields showed the potential upside he brings to the table on Monday night against the Pats when he rushed for 82 yards and a TD while also throwing for 1 and passing for 189 yards. He brings RB2 upside to the table in every single game and any passing that he gets is just bonus.

Has had 17, 19, and 24 FD points the last few weeks which is a total that’s better than guys like Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, and even my boy Daniel Jones.

I get that the matchup here is difficult but Fields has a path to 17 points easily and could get even more. At this price point that smashes value and puts him in contention for the nuts (even 15 points might).

Michael Carter RB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 3.5%

Salary: DK $5900/FD $6600

Breece Hall went down with a season ending injury and it looked like Carter was going to get all the carries, but then the Jets traded for James Robinson and those prospects potentially went down. My bet though is that this week is the Carter is the guy this week and they slowly work Robinson in, similar to what we saw with Christian McCaffrey last week. I’m not saying that they are on the same level but I would expect a similar sort of snap count/workload, around 20ish%.

The matchup with New England is NOT ideal but I just can’t get over the potential workload here at such low ownership. The Jets will lean on the run and Carter has shown some promise catching balls out of the backfield lately.

This Jets team is for real and while they are a little hurt by the Hall injury I think Carter is more than capable and at least in this matchup will see a heavy workload.

Raheem Mostert RB Miami Dolphins

Ownership: DK 19%/FD 29%

Salary: DK $5900/FD $6800

19%?! 29%?! I thought this was the 10 under 10 article! You got me, but this is important so bear with me.

When I saw Mostert’s price/matchup early in the week I almost fell out of my chair. I was so shocked by how cheap he was given the matchup I was sure that he would be 50% owned.

Yet, as the week has gone on and more value like Tony Pollard and D’Onta Foreman has presented itself, we’ve seen Mostert’s owership take a big pretty dip and it’s nowhere NEAR what it should be in a prime matchup against Detroit’s swiss cheese defense.

I’m all in this week on Mostert. He’s going to smash and in my opinion is an exponentially better play than both Pollard and Freeman at a similar price point. The ownership isn’t anywhere near where it should be and he’s going to be in the nuts. 100% owned for me across all sites.

Christian McCaffrey RB San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 14%

Salary: DK $8700/FD $8500

We saw Christian McCaffrey get eased into the 49ers offense last week, playing about 30% of the snaps and getting about the same amount of touches. I would expect him to get around 60-70% of the snaps this week with the touch count similar, especially with Deebo Samuel now ruled out. He has the potential to have a massive role in the passing game (so does George Kittle) and I really think we could see him explode for a classic CMC style game this week even though the matchup against the Rams isn’t the best.

Everyone is going to pay up for guys like Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley who are in great spots but I love the leverage on the field that we can get with CMC.

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Adam Thielen WR Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 6.5%/FD 7.5%

Salary: DK $6400/FD $6900

….So….I know I’ve done this before (three times to be exact) BUT THIS IS THE WEEK THAT ADAM THIELEN GOES OFF!!!

Thielen gets a prime matchup against this mediocre Cardinals secondary. High total game and the Cards have allowed 12 TD passes this season. Everyone is going to play Cousins with Jefferson this week and while JJettas will clearly get more yardage, Thielen has massive TD upside as one of Cousins favorite options in the red zone.

Jefferson will also likely have Byron Murphy Jr. draped all over him all game just due to Murphy having similar speed and ability to stay on him 1 on 1 so we can see Jefferson get wide open on some of these weaker DB’s.

I really do love this play (I know I say that every week I play Thielen) and think he finds the end zone at least once.

Parris Campbell WR Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: DK 1.5%/FD 1.5%

Salary: DK $4500/FD $5600

Sam Ehlinger is the starting QB for the Colts and will be massive chalk on this slate (decent play on DK, unplayable on FD in my opinion at his price point, if you want to know more about my opinion on Ehlinger, you can become a DFS Army VIP ) but the player that he will be mostly paired with is Michael Pittman Jr. and while Pittman is a much better talent than Campbell, Ehlinger’s noodle arm won’t get him the ball downfield and I would expect that he throws quite a few short balls to Campbell, who since getting healthy has found himself operating almost entirely out of the slot and getting those short passes.

He’s finally healthy and has big upside in PPR on DK and is super cheap. He’s an OK play on FD but will likely need to find the end zone to hit value there.

Wan’Dale Robinson WR New York Giants

Ownership: DK 7%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $4700/FD $5900

Wan’Dale Robinson SZN is here! Kadarius Toney has been traded and Robinson has continued to step in a bigger and bigger role here for Danny Dimes and the New York Giants offense. Led WR’s in Snaps and Targets last week and now has a big time opportunity to smash at low ownership and salary against the super mediocre Seahawks secondary.

Elite in space and I think Daboll and the Giants find ways to get him the ball there with the opportunity to create. Has created 49 yards after the catch which is bigger than half his receiving yards on the season (remember he was hurt and last week was the first time he was really healthy).

Way too cheap on both sites for his role in a game script that will benefit him. Love pairing him with Daniel Jones in stacks as well.

Dalton Schultz TE Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 4.5%/FD 4.5%

Salary: DK $3700/FD $5100

People are sleeping on Schultz this week. Has had a couple of quiet weeks this year due to injury and Cooper Rush being at the helm, but popped off again last week with Dak Prescott back and went for 49 yards on 5 catches.

He is dealing with a bit of a knee injury but all indications are that he will be ready to go here against the Bears. The Bears have been solid against the TE but haven’t really played a good one, or one who has been any sort downfield threat, which Schultz is.

Super cheap on DK and one of the lower priced TE’s on FD too. If he catches a TD he can easily 5x this salary on DK and 3x on FD which is what you need from this spot for a GPP win.

Washington Commanders DST (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $2400/FD $3300

I’m kind of shocked how excited everyone is to play a QB that has never started in the NFL, in fact he’s never even throw a pass in a regular season game. On an offense that has struggled all year to do much, mostly because they can’t protect the QB. Ehlinger has upside as a rusher if he can get into space, and he’s a guy that I loved in college because of his never quit attitude, but he has a noodle arm and can turn the ball over if he tries to air it out.

The Commanders defense has underachieved so far this season but they should be licking their chops at this matchup. LOVE the big score potential here and what I like even more is that if they crush, chalk Ehlinger will take down half the field with him.

 

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

The Simple Six- Week 8 NFL DFS Plays

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