10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Zach Wilson – 1.5% – 4.5 DK pts 

Kirk Cousins – 3.5% –  16.5 DK pts 

Travis Etienne – 2.5% – 12,8 DK pts

Aaron Jones – 4% – 7.4 DK pts  

Jerick McKinnon – 1% – 6 DK pts

Russell Gage – 4%  – 4 DK pts 

Isaiah McKenzie – 3.5% – 2.9 Dk pts 

Jakobi Meyers – 9% – 10 DK pts 

George Kittle – 5% – 16.3 DK pts 

Baltimore Ravens – 2.5% – 6 DK pts

What a weird, weird week. Deon Jackson was the top scorer on DK for RB’s and his teammate Matt Ryan was the 3rd best scoring QB. The JETS?!?! were the highest scoring defense. And guys like Tyquan Thornton and Parris Campbell had monster weeks.

Weeks like last week make a DFS player really question if what they are doing is profitable and we will often see casual players make big changes in the way they play after a week like this. Everyone will be searching for the next Deon Jackson or Tyquan Thornton and we will see guys who should be low owned pop up in the ownership because of it.

It’s weeks like this where it’s extremely important to stick to your process and trust it. As my dad used to say ‘Dance with the girl who brought you there’. Last week was an anomaly and we are due one or two of those a season. It was the exception, not the rule, so don’t go chasing or looking for the guy who will play three snaps but ‘might’ catch a TD. Save that for showdown, and stick with the process you trust.

Another week, another big win for a DFS Army VIP! Big shout out to Scott for taking down an early slate contest on Fanduel for a cool 30k!

Want to be the next DFS Army big winner?! ? Join Today and use code UPNORTH for 10% off a VIP Membership!!

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Marcus Mariota QB Atlanta Falcons

Ownership: DK 4.5%/FD 5%

Salary: DK $5500/FD $7100

Mariota is an RB2 with passing TD upside. Has 110 yards rushing in his last two games. 1 rushing TD and 3 passing TD’s in those two games as well.

He was super efficient last week completing 13 of 14 passes but was stymied from a bigger week because of his defense (more on them later).

Going up against the Bengals who are in my opinion, a Paper Tiger. They’ve faced Mitch Trubisky, Teddy Bridgewater, Zach Wilson, Cooper Rush, and Andy Dalton which is why their stats look good against opposing QB’s. The one decent QB, Lamar Jackson put up 58 rushing yards, and 174 passing yards, but really didn’t have anyone to throw to as the Ravens were decimated with injuries.

Much better spot than anyone is giving him credit for. The Falcons have been competitive in every game and I think they are here too. I love for them to cover the 6 point spread. The big question here though is, do we stack Mariota with anyone? I honestly don’t think you have to. They don’t have a dominant receiver or someone who is super consistent like Jackson does with Andrews, so I don’t hate a naked Mariota (that’s what she said). If you feel like you need to stack your QB with someone, Drake London is probably the best option, or maybe we get a Kyle Pitts breakout? The sneaky option would be Khadarel Hodge but I don’t think you necessarily have to go there.

Daniel Jones QB New York Giants

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $5100/FD $6900

The week of the running QB! I love me some Danny Dimes in this matchup against the Jags who just got torched by Old Man River, I mean Matt Ryan.

This is projecting to be a close game with the Jags favored by 3 points, which means we are likely to see Dimes throw the ball a bit more than he has in the past few games, but the rushing upside is what I love here. Saquon is a beast and projected to be one of the highest owned players on the slate but would it be that outrageous for Jones to steal a tuddy (or two) near the goal line? Not at all so we get correlated leverage here by gaining potential points while the field loses them.

The price is so cheap, it lets you pay up for a few stud RB’s or a stud WR/TE. Of his passing options, Daniel Bellinger is probably my favorite, but I don’t love pairing them together. I think Bellinger has TD upside at his price but he’s more of a one off and not someone I’m looking to stack with. Wan’Dale Robinson looked great in the small amount of snaps that he had and Daboll says that he’s going to be more involved so either him or Richie James are my preferred stack pieces.

Nick Chubb RB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $8000/FD $8900

Here’s the deal, Nick Chubb is playing like the best RB in the NFL right now ands he’s priced accordingly. Saw a bit of a dip last week against the Pats, but the Ravens are not the Pats, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Chubb is going to get the ball 15-20 times and he’s going to score. To hit value he probably needs to get 100 yards or two td’s. Is he capable of that? Well he’s done it in two games so far this year.

The field is stuck with recency bias right now. They are going to be playing cheap rb’s or looking for dart throw TD guys and because of that the stud RB’s in good spots are going to go over-owned. I’m not falling into that trap. Smash Chubb (or Ekeler on DK) and take the value elsewhere in your lineup.

Travis Etienne RB Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6200

Etienne is cheap and going up against the Giants who have been great against the pass and poor against the run. James Robinson did still out touch him last week but Etienne was clearly the better back and will continue to see his snap count increase. Seeing a big increase in the passing game work as well.

Love him as a bounce back with a Daniel Jones stack or as a secondary stack with Daniel Bellinger or Wan’dale Robinson in a game that I think goes off and everyone is going to overlook.

Jeff Wilson Jr. RB San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 10%

Salary: DK $5800/FD $6300

It’s very difficult to find a workhorse back for cheap this week, but that’s what we have here in Jeff Wilson. Tyrion Davis-Price is cutting into his workload a little bit, but Wilson is the guy (until they trade for CMC).

He goes up against a very mediocre Chiefs front 7 who are 23rd in DVP and the game is projected to be tight with only a 2.5 point spread. The 49ers are a team that hangs around and Shannahan will pound the football if they get up which is great for Wilson. The risk here is that the Chiefs style out and Wilson gets only 7 carries like he did last week when they were down to the Falcons.

Regardless, a workhorse back who is getting all the touches in a potentially close, high scoring game? All over this play.

Join the DFS Army today and gain access to our daily/weekly cheat sheets, Domination Station Optimizer, Research Stations, Free and VIP Articles, Coaching, and more! Code UPNORTH saves you 10% on a VIP or Core4 Membership!

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Terry McLaurin WR Washington Commanders

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $5900/FD $6200

With Wentz out we get ol gunslinger Taylor Heinicke in at QB for the Commanders against the floundering Green Bay Packers and I think that REALLY suits McLaurin who has been held fairly quiet this year with Wentz and his noodle arm at the helm.

Last fall in this same matchup, Heinicke hit Mclaurin with a stat line of 7 receptions, 122 yards and 1 TD. Now, I’m not saying that that’s a guarantee to happen with TMC this week but the potential is there and it’s obvious through 6 games so far that the connection between Wentz and him just wasn’t there and I would expect Heinicke to look his way early and often.

Tons of upside for McLaurin to have a huge bounceback at no ownership, making him an elite GPP play.

Nico Collins WR Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 3.5%/FD 2.5%

Salary: DK $4200/FD $5600

Collins continues to be an intriguing WR2 in an offense that is not as bad as people think it is. His teammate Brandin Cooks is looking like one of the higher owned WR’s on the slate and we can get Collins, who had the exact same target share as Cooks last week for 1/4 the ownership.

Not only is Collins 1/4 the ownership, but he’s massively cheaper and despite having 15 fewer targets than Cooks on the season, he’s outpacing him in air yards and crushing him in aDOT, both signs of potential big scores for fantasy.

I LOVE this play here against the Raiders in a potential shoot out because both defenses suck. If Mr. Giraffe can withstand the pressure, step up in the pocket, and throw Collins will have a monster game.

Hunter Renfrow WR Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: DK 5.5%/FD 7%

Salary: DK $4900/FD $5700

Renfrow was eased back into action last week coming off a concussion but was still able to snag 4 catches for 39 yards against the Chiefs. Now gets to go up against Houston and their atrocious defense.

What Renfrow really has going for him this week though is the likely absence of Darrell Waller, who will be out or at least limited, meaning that the safety valve will now be Hunter Renfrow.

Adams is going to be massively owned and he obviously has the huge ceiling but don’t sleep on Renfrow here. He’s cheap and has the potential to see 10+ targets like he did last year. To do that though we likely need the Texans to keep up so I love pairing him and Collins or Dameon Pierce as a secondary stack.

Daniel Bellinger TE New York Giants

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $3400/FD $5100

Not a lot of great options at TE this week so I really don’t mind paying down for a guy like Bellinger. The Giants have no one available to throw the ball to and thats worked out well for Bellinger who led the team in targets last week.

Caught a TD pass last week and he ran one in the week before. He’s clearly a big part of this offense and the Jags can be had by the TE.

I think Bellinger goes for 5-6 catches here, 40 yards, and a TD which would smash value at this price point and potentially get him in the nuts.

Atlanta Falcons DST (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $2400/FD $3300

What do we need in DFS for defenses? Turnovers and tuddies (and sacks) Who is leading the league in turnovers? The Falcons, and they are MASSIVELY under priced here. Burrow is a stud but he turns the ball over and the ball hawks in this secondary could have a big day IF the front 7 can get some pressure on him.

Love the salary savings we get here especially on a slate where there isn’t a clear cut great option.

 

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

Yahoo DFS Strategy for Week 7 | Picks, Tips, and Podcast for Winning Lineups

DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP

Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy and Season Long NFL content in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NFL DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code UPNORTH to lock in at 10% off the monthly membership fee. You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team.