10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Trevor Lawrence– 6% – 12.34 DK pts 

Justin Herbert – 4% –  14.4 DK pts 

Nick Chubb – 5% – 28.4 DK pts (7 pts. over ceiling projection)

Breece Hall – 15% – 30.7 DK pts  (7 pts. over ceiling projection)

Raheem Mostert – 9% – 22.2 DK pts (exactly his ceiling projection)

Mike Evans– 14%  – 12.2 DK pts 

Nico Collins – 2% – 10.5 Dk pts 

Adam Thielen – 3% – 6.7 DK pts 

Marquez Callaway – 5.75% – 2.5 DK pts 

Philadelphia Eagles – 2.5% – 4 DK pts

Well, the running backs were great!!! Other than that we saw some rough outings by guys like Marquez Callaway and Adam Thielen. I swear I’m going to quit writing up Thielen every week so you should probably play him now because he’s finally going to go off. Hard to do much when you are playing across from the best WR in the game in Justin Jefferson.

Seriously though, how good is Nick Chubb? Not only is he smashing week in and week out, he’s doing it behind a mediocre offensive line that is letting him get hit behind the line of scrimmage most of the time. 593 yards rushing through 5 weeks for Chubb, and a ridiculous 415 of them are after contact!

Breece Hall continues to look like a monster as he gets more and more comfortable with the NFL game and Raheem Mostert is THE guy in Miami now and he’s likely in for a huge workload again this week as the Dolphins deal with QB issues.

Talk about a mediocre week for QB’s too. Lawrence in a smash spot dudded and Herbert in a game that went over 60 total points ended up with a measly 14 DK points.

Tough week, fortunately the other two QB’s in my player pool were Josh Allen and Tom Brady, unfortunately they were both pretty highly owned. Also unfortunate (or fortunate for some) was that ALL the chalk smashed. Literally. All of it. It all smashed. And when that happens I likely won’t have a great week.

Another week, another big win for a DFS Army VIP! Big shout out to Scott for taking down an early slate contest on Fanduel for a cool 30k!

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Zach Wilson QB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 1.5%/FD 1.5%

Salary: DK $5300/FD $6700

Wilson and the Jets have ran more play action than anyone through the first five weeks of the season. Anyone know who the worst team is against play action through the first five weeks? You guessed it, the Green Bay Packers. Potential smash spot for the young gun here in a game that has one of the better totals on the slate that doesn’t involve the Bills or Chiefs. (Look, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are both elite plays this week and you should have a ton of them in your lineups, but just in case that game duds, I love getting exposure to some lower owned cheap studs because it completely changes the way your build looks).

Wilson has put together two solid games so far in his young career and he adds in the ability to rush the ball in with his legs. Has a bunch of solid weapons in Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Elijah Moore. Add in Breece Hall and Michael Carter and this offense is really not that bad.

My prefer stack piece is Corey Davis as he has been the receiver with not only the largest target share but the most air yards and deepest aDOT. I also don’t hate the idea of pairing Wilson with Breece Hall and just getting access to all of the Tuddies in this game. The Jets are beating the Pack. You heard it here first.

 Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 6.5%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $6000/FD $7600

I really can’t believe it’s taken me 6 weeks to get this point but here we are baby, Captain Kirk is making his first appearance in the 10 under 10 article!

Miami is in shambles right now and are giving up the 29th most fantasy points to opposing QB’s. The concern here is obviously that the Vikings roll and Cousins doesn’t have to do much as Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison gather up all the tuddies, but this is the Vikings. Their record against back up QB’s is atrocious and even under the new Kevin O’Connell regime they tend to play down to the level of their competition on a weekly basis (see last week’s Bears game).

The props are solid, 268 yards and 2 TD’s and Cousins has gone over 40 attempts in three of his five games this year (with another game being 38) so the volume is there for a big game. Stack him up with Justin Jefferson and move on with one of the more unique GPP builds of the week.

Aaron Jones RB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: DK 4.8%/FD 12.18%

Salary: DK $7600/FD $7300

Jones is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate this week. He goes up against the Jets (Hello game stack with Zack Wilson) who are atrocious against the run and we saw last week in a close game against the Giants that the Pack is willing to use him as essentially an every down back. AJ Dillon was getting closer a 50/50 split leading into this game, but it was 70/30 in London with Dillon getting ALL of the targets.

He’s so explosive when he runs that he’s a threat to break one every time he touches the ball. He’s getting around 14ish carries and 3.5 targets a game so far and he’s due some massive positive regression in the rushing TD category, with only one on the year. We saw that paying up for a stud RB last week can work this season with Nick Chubb and I’m going right back to that well with Jones.

NOTE: His ownership is pretty high on FD because he’s mispriced over there. I REALLY love him on DK though because of that pass catching upside, gives him a better floor and higher ceiling.

Travis Etienne RB Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $5000/FD $6400

I think we’re starting to see the changing of the guard in Jacksonville. 2nd year (really a rookie) Travis Etienne has started to look like the better running back in this offense and he’s starting to get more touches because of it. Matched James Robinson for the first time in carries last week and he received more targets for the first time all season, setting a high at 5 targets which he turned into 3 catches for 43 yards.

While yes, this is about a 50/50 time share, the explosiveness of Etienne and the trends towards him getting more work make me more excited to play him than a 3rd string RB in a mediocre offense that is now getting the touches because everyone else is hurt (Hi Eno Benjamin!)

I think this game has sneaky shoot out potential, especially if Jonathan Taylor plays and it should stay tight throughout which means that Etienne will remain involved. Sneaky good upside play here for cheap.

Jerick McKinnon RB Kansas City Chiefs

Ownership: DK 8.5%/FD 7.5%

Salary: DK $4700/FD $5500

Super punt time! I love me some Jet McKinnon this week in a shoot out where presumably the Chiefs will be down. McKinnon jumped back over rookie Pacheco in workload last week against the Raiders in a game where they trailed and even outstnapped Clyde Edwards-Helaire. 

Trying to figure out who is going to get the work for the Chiefs is always a dangerous game, but the upside here is that we get cheap exposure to the best fantasy game environment on the slate. And we get arguably the best back in the Chiefs RB room.

The downside is a zero, especially with him not necessarily getting the goal line touches, but at this price point, particularly on DK where we have PPR that can give him a decent floor.

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Russell Gage WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $4400/FD $5600

What’s the best way to attack the Steelers? Through the air.

What position do we want to attack at? In the slot.

Who plays in the slot for the Bucs? Russell Gage.

Boom, that’s all you need to know. Seriously, I think Brady and the Bucs tear up the Steelers this week and Gage saw as many targets as Mike Evans last week. The price is so cheap given the role. Don’t sleep on Brady/Gage stacks avoiding Evans/Godwin and their ownership. Actually don’t sleep on Brady/Gage/Otton stacks and then getting a ton of exposure to the studs in the Chiefs/Bills game.

Isaiah McKenzie WR Buffalo Bills

Ownership: DK 4.5%/FD 5.2%

Salary: DK $5000/FD $6000

McKenzie comes back this week after missing week 5 with a concussion and should slot right back into the very productive slot receiver role for the Bills and their Josh Allen led offense.

Khalil Shakir went off last week in this role but he will likely be relegated back to the bench as McKenzie is the superior option.

Everyone chasing that Gabe Davis game from last week will be very disappointed and I think McKenzie is arguably the best option here and has the best matchup in this offense. Stefon Diggs is a stud but you are paying for him. Dawson Knox potentially being out again or limited is going to only boost McKenzie’s value too.

Jakobi Meyers WR New England Patriots

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $5300/FD $6600

Came back last week from a knee injury and absolutely smashed. 8 targets, 7 receptions, 111 yards and 1 TD. And that’s with backup Bailey Zappe at the helm. Potential that Mac Jones returns this weekend which would only benefit Meyers but he’s a good play regardless as the focal point of this offense.

Plays most of his snaps in the slot which means he will get a ton of looks from either QB and will go up against Greg Newsome II who has been pretty mediocre.

In the three weeks that he’s played his WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is 7th in the NFL. Better than guys like Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson, and Drake London. There’s no one at this price who is getting the opportunity that Meyers is and that means that he has a massive ceiling and a really safe floor.

George Kittle TE San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 3%/FD 7.5%

Salary: DK $5100/FD $5700

Kittle gets a prime matchup against the Atlanta Falcons who let Cade Otton go off for 6 catches and 43 yards. Seriously, Atlanta really struggles against the TE and Kittle is starting to see a bigger load each week as he gets healthier and more comfortable in this offense.

Led the Niners in receptions last week and he’s always had better games with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. Think he could be sitting on a BIG game here at almost no ownership. If you aren’t paying up for Kelce or Andrews (or chasing Taysom Hill…seriously don’t) then I love coming down and playing Kittle over guys like Otton who I mentioned above or Zach Ertz.

Ceiling is around 20ish DK points and floor is around 9. That’s a similar floor/ceiling to Travis Kelce/Mark Andrews at a huge discount. I know that Kelce had a zillion TD’s last week but good luck chasing that.

Baltimore Ravens DST (vs. New York Giants)

Ownership: DK 3.5%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $3600/FD $4200

How do defenses score in DFS? Shutouts, Turnovers, and Sacks. The Ravens lead the league in turnovers with 11 and are going up against a QB that can turn the ball over and tends to take a lot of sacks (15 on the season).

The Ravens secondary has had some trouble to start the year but shut down the high flying Bengals last week for the most part and should have no problem against the XFL roster of receivers that the Giants are employing.

Other defense options I like this week are the Vikings, 49ers, Jaguars, and Panthers but all of them should be much higher owned than the Ravens this week.

 

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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