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10 Under 10 – 10 GPP Options under 10% Ownership on Draftkings and Fanduel (Week 5 Main Slate)

10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Sep 18, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Jets safety Jordan Whitehead (3) tackles Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) during the second half at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Lamar Jackson – 9% – 15.06 DK pts 

Geno Smith – 4.5% –  34.7 DK pts (5 pts. over ceiling projection)

Dameon Pierce – 7% – 28.9 DK pts (5 pts. over ceiling projection)

Najee Harris – 8% – 7.4 DK pts  

Breece Hall – 2% – 15.8 DK pts

Allen Lazard – 1%  – 20.6 DK pts (1 pt. over ceiling projection)

Mack Hollins – 12% – 6.3 Dk pts 

Isaiah McKenzie – 2% – 12.1 DK pts 

George Pickens – 1.5% – 19.2 DK pts (5 pts. over ceiling projection)

Tennessee Titans – 8% – 10 DK pts

 

Talk about a bounce back week! 4 of our 10 picks in the article last week went OVER our CEILING projection. That means they absolutely smashed what our projections said were their top outcome. Geno Smith, Dameon Pierce and George Pickens all scored 5 more DK points than our ceiling projection. Allen Lazard was 1 point over his ceiling projection, and Breece Hall was almost identical to his ceiling projection. So almost 50% of last weeks article were just through the roof in terms of their production. The only big miss for me was Najee Harris who really under performed and then had Kenny Pickens come in and vulture two goal line tuddies. I think that’s potentially a big deal going forward now with Pickett named the starter.

For the first time this season we saw a cheap QB get it done in the milly with Geno Smith taking it down. Jared Goff was also up there too. Does that trend continue? Read below to find out my thoughts!

Another week, another big win for a DFS Army VIP! Big shout out to Scott for taking down an early slate contest on Fanduel for a cool 30k!

Want to be the next DFS Army big winner?! ? Join Today and use code UPNORTH for 10% off a VIP Membership!!

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Trevor Lawrence QB Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: DK 7.2%/FD 5.1%

Salary: DK $5600/FD $7600

I tell ya what…this offense under Doug Pederson looks really good. It’s weird to say given how inept the Jaguars have been for almost my entire life (which is essentially their entire existence) but they’ve been solid. A tough game last week with the weather and the tough Philly defense is now rewarded with a home game against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Houston Texans.

One thing that we HAVEN’T seen from TLaw and the Jags so far this season that he did do last season is use his legs to create. Part of that is having an efficient rushing attack and not getting into those situations where he’s forced to, but part of it was designed, and I think that is coming here soon. I’m not talking Lamar Jackson type numbers but I think a 30 yard rushing game isn’t out of the question and that combined with his normal passing (and the potential for passing yards against this Houston Texans defense) gives him a really impressive ceiling.

The price tag on DK is so cheap. He’s our number one QB value over there and the ownership doesn’t reflect that.

My favorite stack piece for Lawrence is Christian Kirk and I don’t hate Zay Jones coming back off of injury and I don’t mind going 2 pass catchers with Lawrence as I think he probably needs to drag two guys with him to big days to be the nuts QB. On the otherside of the ball, Dameon Pierce is rolling right now, but on DK in particularly I love Nico Collins to have a breakout game, and more on that in a bit!

 Justin Herbert QB Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: DK 3.5%/FD 3.8%

Salary: DK $7100/FD $8200

After a bit of a poor outing against the Jacksonville Jaguars after his rib cartilage injury, Herbert got right back on track a 340 yard 2 TD performance against the Texans. While Keenan Allen is likely going to miss again, this offense hasn’t missed a beat in his absence.

Outside of the Jets, The Chargers have the second best projection for passing yards at 295 in our Power Rankings and that bodes well for a big day for Herbert and co. Ownership is just way too low here and he’s at a price point that that isn’t outrageous by any means. Most people will either pay up for Josh Allen or down for Tom Brady and I kind of love hammering this middle ground with guys like Herbert.

Pairing him with Mike Williams is the obvious play but I don’t hate using Austin Ekeler here either. Ekeler is second on the team in targets on the season and while it is expensive, I think it’s an intriguing GPP play to lock in all the touchdowns in what should be a fairly high scoring/competitive game. Don’t sleep on Gerald Everett either but he’s finally priced up appropriately on both sites.

Nick Chubb RB Cleveland Browns

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $8000/FD $9400

Paying up for RB has NOT been a successful strategy this season and as such we are now seeing these absolute stud RB’s go way under owned. At some point we will see that change as these studs can’t have duds every single week and I think of all the high priced RB’s this week, Chubb has the best chance to go off.

The Chargers have been a disaster defensively this season and just gave up 131 yards on the ground to Dameon Pierce and the Texans. Chubb has quietly gone over 110 yards in 3 of his 4 games so far this season and in the one that he didn’t he scored 3 Tuddies. Hasn’t had a massive game of both yardage and TD’s yet but it’s coming given his usage.

In a normal year he would easily be 15-16% owned on this slate but given that the stud RB’s haven’t paid off he’s half that here and it’s a massive leverage spot for us to take advantage of.

Raheem Mostert RB Miami Dolphins

Ownership: DK 4.7%/FD 7.6%

Salary: DK $5000/FD $5800

While Chase Edmonds was the beneficiary of the TD pass last week, Mostert was THE guy in the Dolphins backfield in terms of snap count and carries, crushing Edmonds in both areas. He now gets to go up against the Jets who are 32nd in the league (for those of you who don’t know, that is dead last) in DK points allowed to opposing rushers.

The Dolphins are scrambling a bit with Tua Tagavailoa going down with a potentially career ending injury but they do have Teddy Bridgewater there to right the ship and he’s a more than capable back up. The Dolphins want to grind clock and will do so with Mostert who should get upwards of 15 touches and 2-3 targets in the passing game.

Team total of 24 is one of the best on the slate and I think this game has pop off potential which is why I love a good bounce back with Breece Hall on the other side of the ball. People are shying away because of the perceived shared backfields but Hall and Mostert are both getting RB1 touches and should continue to do so in a competitive, positive game environment.

Breece Hall RB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 8.5%/FD 7.5%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6600

It is Breece Hall’s time to shine. Finally outsnapped Michael Carter last week and continues to get a ton of work in the passing game. Going up against a banged up Pittsburgh defense that’s been run all over, especially by pass catching back which Hall is.

That’s what I wrote about Hall last week and it’s still true here and potentially even more so. He split carries and snaps last week with Carter, but continues to widen that gap. Didn’t have a massive target game like he did in week 3 but was second on the team in targets which is good to see now that Zach Wilson is back under center.

He’s not a guy who is likely to put up a 100 yard game, but the combination of the rushing and receiving work makes him like a cheaper Austin Ekeler. If he can find the end zone here he’s going to absolutely smash value and has a chance at being in the milly winner if he can find a way to sneak in twice.

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Mike Evans WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: DK 8.5%/FD 10.6%

Salary: DK $6900/FD $7500

Atlanta sucks and this ownership on the WR1 in the Tampa offense is disrespectful. I’d play Evans all the way to 15/20% owned. Guys a stud and is Brady’s new favorite target in the end zone, something we thought should happen last year but didn’t quite develop.

Chris Godwin being back only helps Evans as it makes it so that teams can’t just key on him. The other weapons in this offense are concerning, but Brady is continuing to look his way first almost every time in the red zone. Easy way to get exposure to this game and the ceiling is massive. The floor really isn’t that bad though and I think he’s going to smash here.

Nico Collins WR Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 2.5%/FD 1.3%

Salary: DK $4100/FD $5400

Collins is one of my favorite punt WR’s this week. While he has a few less targets than Brandin Cooks, the peripheral stats are all almost identical, including air yards, aDOT, etc. Yet, Collins is cheaper and 1/4th of the ownership. 3 catches 82 yards last week and that’s probably a ceiling for him, but if he can find the end zone he will absolutely smash value at this price point.

Big play guy who can bust one in a hurry. Can’t really go wrong at this price as it allows you to sneak in more expensive options like a Cooper Kupp or Stefon Diggs who are in great spots as well.

Adam Thielen WR Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 1.4%/FD 3.5%

Salary: DK $6300/FD $6300

I’m not afraid to admit that I am a die hard Vikings fan. I bleed purple and gold. My mood on Sunday’s is not determined by how I do in DFS but how the Vikings perform. I fully expect to be disappointed every Sunday so you can imagine my surprise when we got the double doink by the Saints last week to give the Vikings the W.

That being said, while watching the game what I was most surprised with though was how often Kirk Cousins looked Thielen’s way when he needed a big conversion. Yes, Justin Jefferson had some sick grabs and was targeted on first down quite a few times for big plays, but when the going got tough, it was Thielen who Cousins went to time and again. In what is likely a tough, grind it out game against the Bears, I love the leverage we get with just a completely unowned Thielen here. He has multiple TD upside and is getting close to the same sort of targets as guys like Jefferson who are much more expensive.

Marquez Callaway WR New Orleans Saints

Ownership: DK 0.5%/FD 0.3%

Salary: DK $3300/FD $5100

So this play depends a little on the status of Michael Thomas, but not as much as one may think. Last week against the Vikings, Callaway played a ridiculous 96% of the snaps and saw a 21% target share, second to only Chris Olave in this Andy Dalton led offense. He turned that into 3 catches for 55 yards.

Thomas looks like he will continue to be sidelined here, making Callaway a legitimate threat for a starting role against the Seahawks and their pretty mediocre secondary. The upside here is pretty big, especially on DK where he is SO CHEAP and allows you fit in a bunch of studs.

Philadelphia Eagles DST (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $3500/FD $4200

This Eagles defense is LEGIT. Had five takeaways last week against the Jags, and the week before had NINE sacks against Carson Wentz and the Commanders. Massive OL/DL advantage for the Eagles here. Murray has had at least 1 turnover in each of his last three games and that’s against three pretty mediocre defenses, not the stiff competition he’ll face here.

Murray has taken six sacks so far this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Eagles get to him that many times in this game alone. He’s going to be on the run A LOT and we know that that leads to turnovers too. HUGE spot for the Eagles here.

 

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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