Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Main Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 3:
Sep 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) scores on a 26-yard touchdown run against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
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Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll kick off week three of the NFL season with the Raiders heading into Tennessee to take on a Titans team that is coming off of a good ole fashion whooping on Monday Night Football against the Bills. Davante Adams had a rough day as mega chalk last week with just two catches against a bad Arizona defense. That being said, I do think we can go back to him here as a one-off, he still picked up seven targets in the game and we know Derek Carr is looking to get him the ball. Speaking of Carr, I do think this stack is in play due to this Titans defense, they currently rank 26th against the pass and 29th in DVOA. Obviously, that’s heavily skewed due to the Bills destroying them, but I like the spot. You can throw Darren Waller into that conversation as well due to the current state of the tight end position, he has at least six targets in each game this season. Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow are the other notable options on this team but would likely be more GPP options than anything for me due to their production this season. From the Titans, woof… they looked bad in all facets on Monday Night. Outside of Derrick Henry who looks great again here, I don’t think I want to target anyone on this offense. I guess you could make a case for Austin Hooper as a value tight end option, but that’s about it.
5-star plays: Davante Adams, Derrick Henry
4-star plays: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Austin Hooper
GPP Note: The Raiders would be the side I’d be looking to stack, I have next to zero interest in the Titans here.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Bengals and man is this offensive line in shambles… they’ve allowed 13 sacks on the season which is at least five more than every other team in the league outside of the Saints who are at 10. Joe Burrow has zero time to throw which doesn’t give him a lot of opportunity to get the ball to his wide-outs. That being said, the Jets defense ranks dead last in DVOA and dead last against the pass on the season… this spot looks great for Burrow and his offense. I like stacking him up with any of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and even Joe Mixon out of the backfield. Chase easily leads the team with a 30.8% target share on the season and is my preferred stacking option, but it will obviously cost you. From the Jets, Joe Flacco has an insane 103 pass attempts on the season and should continue to sling the ball in this one to try and keep up with this Bengals offense. I don’t want to use Flacco as a quarterback option, but the opportunity will be there for guys like Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis. Breece Hall and Michael Carter are serious pass-catching threats out of the backfield as well. I would have no issue running my Bengals stacks back with any of these guys and don’t hate throwing two guys in there depending on the size of your tournament… this game has some sneaky shootout potential.
5-star plays: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon
4-star plays: Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter
GPP Note: I love a Bengals stack with one or two run-backs from the Jets.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game has the highest implied total on the slate at 53.5 and should draw a lot of eyeballs after what both of these offenses did in week 2 putting up 41 and 42 points respectively. We’ll start with the Bills where the whole passing game is in play starting with Josh Allen. He has at least 32.5 DraftKings points in each game this season and looks like an elite option yet again here. He’s hyper-targeting Stefon Diggs who has been scorching Earth as well with at least 29 DraftKings points in each game. It’s an expensive stack, but it’s an elite one if you can make it work. We’ll need to keep an eye on the status of Gabe Davis who missed week 2 and comes in as questionable early in the week. We didn’t really see any of the receivers step up in his absence outside of Diggs getting additional looks, so I don’t think there’s much to take away if he ends up missing again. I’ll continue to stay away from this Buffalo backfield as well, it’s just not what they excel at. Then the Dolphins, as I mentioned, had a massive week as well starting with Tua Tagovailoa who had the best start of his career in week 2. He was looking for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle all game long and combine for a 60% target share on the season. I could see the Dolphins coming in as a chalky or popular stack after last week, so I’m not sure I want to run back to the Tua start at quarterback, especially against a really good defense, but I have no issue going back to these wide receivers. Speaking of that Bills defense, they rank as the top defense in DVOA and the 2nd best passing defense in the league thru two weeks.
5-star plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
4-star plays: Tua Tagovailoa, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox
GPP Note: Love stacking up the Bills side of things with a run back of Hill, Waddle, or even Gesicki, but I’ll be off of Tua this week.
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Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Eagles who are coming off of a really impressive win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football. Jalen Hurts looked incredible in that game and is looking much better as a passer combined with his usual rushing upside. Hurts will look like a great option again in this one against the Commanders’ 31st-ranked passing defense. You can run him out there naked or pair him up with any of Miles Sanders, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and/or Dallas Goedert. Brown leads the team with a 33.3% target share and would be my preferred option to pair with Hurts but that comes with a price as well. This Commanders offense has been sneaky good as well and we get a good ole revenge game with Carson Wentz playing the team that gave up on him. Wentz has at least 28 FanDuel points in both games on the season and is spreading the ball around a pretty good amount. Curtis Samuel leads the team with 20 targets on the season, nobody else has more than 12. This stack is firmly in play against the Eagles as well, or if you want to run your Eagles stack back with any of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, or Antonio Gibson. Gibson has looked really solid as well, he struggled on the ground last time out, but the opportunity should be there as we wait for Brian Robinson to get back.
5-star plays: Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown
4-star plays: DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, Carson Wentz, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson
GPP Note: I think you can make a case for stacking both of these offenses with solid run-back options on both sides of the ball.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This line feels really odd with the Chiefs favored by 6.5 after the Colts threw up a dud against the Jaguars last week. We’ll start with the Chiefs nonetheless, where the Patrick Mahomes lead offense will look great here. The Colts have the 29th-ranked passing defense in the league, so I’m expecting Mahomes to pick them apart. I think we could see a breakout game for either/or JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling who have both struggled so far but look like great values on this slate. Then obviously Travis Kelce is in firm play to stack with him as well, along with Clyde Edwards-Helaire who has looked fairly solid this season. On the Colts side of things, woof… did they look bad last week. They desperately need Michael Pittman back as a pass-catcher after missing last week’s game. If he’s out again, I do think Ashton Dulin looks like a solid value after receiving at least six targets in back-to-back games. Outside of those two, it’s really just Jonathan Taylor for me, but how much do we really think the Colts are going to be able to run if they fall behind early? Obviously, I’m not talking you off of Taylor, he’s incredible, but I do think spending our money elsewhere may be the better option.
5-star plays: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman
4-star plays: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Ashton Dulin
GPP Note: The Chiefs look great here with my favorite run-back options being Taylor and Pittman… Dulin if you need to save salary.
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game is tied for the lowest implied total on the slate, but we’ll begin with the Texans side of things. Davis Mills has been fine but not really a guy I want to get to in DFS, I just think we can find a higher ceiling if we spend a couple extra hundred dollars. The preseason darling, Dameon Pierce, did see 15 rushing attempts last week, but the pass-catching ability hasn’t been there. That being said, the price tag is pretty nice for a guy that saw 62% of snap shares. I do like Brandin Cooks in the passing game as well, he has at least 10 targets in both games on the season and is absorbing a 29.3% target share on the season. From the Bears, David Montgomery looked really good against the Packers last week and is going to continue to get fed as this team refuses to let Justin Fields throw the ball. He had just 11 pass attempts last week even after trailing early… this hurts his pass catchers like Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney quite a bit. David Montgomery is the only true option I would have interest in from the Bears until they start to throw the ball more in this new offense.
5-star plays: David Montgomery, Brandin Cooks
4-star plays: Dameon Pierce
GPP Note: Just one-offs in this game for me.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 3!
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This is the other game with an implied total of 40.5 points, but I do think there are a few more options in this one than in that Bears game above. Starting with the Saints, I tweeted this out yesterday, see below. Jameis Winston is the top point per dollar quarterback option on the slate according to our Domination Station projections.
1. Jameis Winston – $5.2k; 3.33 Fpts/$:
• More of a price play than anything really.
• At least 34 pass attempts in both games on the season.
• 3rd in the league in deep ball attempts with 13.
• 1st in the league in air yards.— DFS Madness (@MadnessDFS) September 20, 2022
I do think Winston is in play as an option at this price tag for the reasons stated above, the big thing to me being the air yards and his willingness to force the ball downfield. Michael Thomas and Chris Olave are leading the team in targets with each having at least 16 on the season. He’ll also likely get Alvin Kamara back in this game which will take some attention off of the passing game and gives him a nice dump-off option. From the Panthers, Christian McCaffrey isn’t putting up bonkers numbers like we saw when he was healthy last season, but he still has at least 15.7 DraftKings points in each game on the season. This Saints defense is a good one, but if you’re in the price range I won’t be talking you off of him in this one. Baker Mayfield hasn’t really been good enough to force the ball to guys like DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, so they would be more of tournament options than anything for me to round out this team.
5-star plays: Jameis Winston, Christian McCaffrey
4-star plays: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson
GPP Note: I don’t really want to fully stack either of these teams, but the Saints would be my preferred choice due to the all-encompassing price to do so.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Ravens who are coming off of a massive offensive output last week against the Dolphins. I think things will slow down this week simply due to this Patriots defense and how slow their offense plays. Lamar Jackson will look great as always, but I just hate this matchup and think I’ll likely go elsewhere. If I were to play him I would probably run him out there naked and hope he grabs all the offensive production similar to what he did last week. But, as the saying goes, Bill Belichick is going to do everything he can to shut down the team’s top option… good luck stopping Lamar, but it wouldn’t shock me if he regressed a little bit in this one. Looking at this passing game, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are the guys you want, they combine for a 50.5% target share on the season. I also wouldn’t touch this backfield until we see some production. From the Patriots, Mac Jones will be a pretty easy exclusion for me, he just hasn’t shown the upside to put up numbers good enough for DFS in his career. The backfield is pretty split amongst Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, both would be last-type in type plays for me. Then to the passing game, it’s really just Jakobi Meyers who is a really nice PPR guy due to the number of targets he’s seeing. He’s somewhat allergic to the endzone but has a 29.2% target share on the season.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Jakobi Meyers
GPP Note: I don’t think I want to stack up either of these teams.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
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Rundown:
This game has one of the higher implied totals on the slate and it’s due to these two defenses followed by these offenses showing signs of shootout potential. Starting with the Lions, they’ve put up at least 35 points in each game this season and I haven’t seen anything from the Vikings defense to think that changes here. Jared Goff has been good enough to feed his pass-catchers, particularly Amon-Ra St. Brown who is having a breakout season after coming to the scene last year. He has 12 targets in two straight games and is demanding a 33.8% target share on the season, he’s a great option again against a bad Vikings secondary. I have no issue going right back to D’Andre Swift either, he has pass-catching upside and was able to still put up 16.7 DraftKings points with just five rushing attempts last week. Guys like TJ Hockenson and DJ Chark are solid tournament options at their respective price tags as well. From the Vikings, Kirk Cousins was not good on Monday Night Football but I do think that will impact his ownership this week. This Lions defense is not good so I think we can go right back to him and his pass-catchers, particularly Justin Jefferson. The Eagles did a good job on Jefferson, but I don’t expect the Lions to be as successful. I do think Irv Smith is interesting as a cheap tight-end option as well. He had eight targets last week and flat-out dropped a 65-yard walk-in touchdown so he could have legitimately had a 100+ yard game with 2 touchdowns. Adam Thielen just isn’t getting the targets we’re used to seeing and would be more of a tournament option for me. Finally, Dalvin Cook has certainly been frustrating but if there were ever a bounce-back spot for him to excel… this is it, he looks like a great option in all formats.
5-star plays: Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook
4-star plays: TJ Hockenson, DJ Chark, Irv Smith, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen
GPP Note: I like both sides of this one quite a bit.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Onto the afternoon games where the Jaguars will head into Los Angeles to face off with the Chargers. Starting with the FIRST PLACE Jags, this offense hasn’t exactly been high flying but it’s doing enough to be competent and obviously win games. Trevor Lawrence has looked solid but we haven’t seen a huge upside game out of him which is baked into his price tag a bit. I do expect the Jaguars to need to throw the ball to keep up with the Chargers here, so I don’t hate going to him with a guy like Christian Kirk who he’s been looking to early and often. Kirk has a team-high 25% target share and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. James Robinson has been the guy you want in the backfield with Travis Etienne taking the secondary role. Etienne probably has more of a receiving ceiling, but I do think they’re both in play at the least at their price tags. From the Chargers, what’s not to like about Justin Herbert and this offense? Herbert has at least 23 FanDuel points in both games on the season despite being without Keenan Allen last week. It sounds like Allen is closer to doubtful than questionable again this week and we saw Joshua Palmer take on a bigger role but man the price tag isn’t great on him. If I’m going to the Chargers it’s going to be these high-priced guys like Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Williams bounced back in a big way last week while Ekeler continued to struggle outside of some garbage time receptions production. He does still have more than double the amount of snaps of any other back on the team, so he’s the guy you want and I don’t mind throwing him in with a Herbert stack as well.
5-star plays: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler
4-star plays: Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, James Robinson, Evan Engram
GPP Note: Both of these stacks are in play depending on what kind of salary you want to spend, the Chargers are obviously the higher-end stack but you get more value with the Jags.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Packers who are coming off of a bounce-back game in week 2. Aaron Rodgers played second fiddle to the running game which is something I think we should get used to this season. Not to say Rodgers will be overlooked, but I’m not expecting 40+ passing attempts weekly like we’re used to. That being said, I don’t have any issue with a Packers stack here with Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon in the backfield, but figuring out the passing game will be the biggest issue. Sammy Watkins was the biggest performer last week and will be out there for the majority of snaps as he and Allen Lazard are some of the best blockers in the league at the receiver position. Nobody on the team has more than a 15% target share on the season, so until that solidifies and someone grabs ahold of the WR1 spot, it makes it pretty difficult to stack this team. From Tampa, they’re dealing with their own receiving issues as Mike Evans is suspended and Chris Godwin and Julio Jones come in as questionable. If one or both of them play I think they’re firmly in play with Tom Brady on this slate, but this Packers defense is no joke. I’m starting to think twice about a stack on either side of this game the more I think about it. This could be a grind-it-out game won by the backfields which is crazy when you think of an Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady rematch. The Packers’ defense does look like it will give up some production to running backs this season, so I have no issue going right back to Leonard Fournette in this one as well.
5-star plays: Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette
4-star plays: Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, AJ Dillon, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones
GPP Note: I’m thinking twice about a full stack of either of these teams.
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Rams who get an elite matchup against this Cardinals team that comes in with a defense ranked 19th in DVOA and 27th against the pass which will work well for this Rams team. Matthew Stafford was able to bounce back nicely last week with three touchdowns against the Falcons and will look great again. His stacking options are pretty clear starting with Cooper Kupp who continues to dominate. He has at least 14 targets in both games and at least 34 DraftKings points in each game, he’s an elite option in all formats in this matchup and is likely the top option on the slate no matter the position. Allen Robinson bounced back nicely last week and should have had a bigger game before the refs blew a walk-in touchdown dead due to an injury call from upstairs. He’s in play if you want to double stack this offense, which I think is firmly in play here. The backfield was more split this week as Darrell Henderson saw a 56% snap share while Cam Akers was up to 44%. It seems like it’s going to be more of a committee until someone runs away with the starting job, so I don’t want to get too crazy on either of them here. From the Cardinals, Kyler Murray lead an insane comeback against the Raiders last week and is in play yet again here. Hollywood Brown leads the team with a 19.5% target share on the season but Zach Ertz commanded 11 targets as they lifted his “pitch count” last week, both guys look great here as pairing options with Kyler. We’ll need to keep an eye on James Conner as he’s banged up and comes in as questionable, if he’s not able to go, I’m not sure I want any part of this backfield against a great Rams defense. Darrel Williams has shown some pass-catching upside in his career, so he would be the guy I want if that is the case.
5-star plays: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyler Murray
4-star plays: Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee, Hollywood Brown, Zach Ertz
GPP Note: Both sides of this one are firmly in play.
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll round the slate out starting with the Falcons as they head into Seattle in what should be a pretty quick overview for DFS purposes. I do think Marcus Mariota is in play surprisingly enough, he’s been pretty good for DFS purposes this season due to some nice rushing upside. He also has some solid options to get the ball to, starting with his favorite target, Drake London who has 19 targets on the season. Kyle Pitts could only imagine that kind of target share. I’m not really sure what the Falcons are doing when it comes to designing plays for him, but as a top-five pick in the draft, you’d think they would try and get him the ball more. That being said, his price tag has come way down and is a great option in DFS if you’re okay with some risk/reward. I do think Cordarrelle Patterson is in play if you’re getting whacky with a Falcons stack as well. From the Seahawks, it’s hard for me to like much of anything honestly. Geno Smith hasn’t shown enough upside or consistency to get the ball to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, although Lockett did look good last week. I just don’t trust Geno’s ability to get it to him deep. Outside of those two receivers, I don’t really want any part of this running game either.
5-star plays: Drake London
4-star plays: Marcus Mariota, Kyle Pitts, Cordarrelle Patterson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
GPP Note: I don’t really want to stack either side of this one, but do think the Falcons have some GPP upside.
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