Get your NFL DFS research started with a full game-by-game breakdown of this week’s NFL slate. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Main Slate Breakdown Picks for NFL DFS Week 1:
Aug 12, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts as his team takes the field for a game against the New York Jets at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
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New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Welcome to week 1 of the NFL season! We’ll get things started in Atlanta where the Falcons will host the Saints in an NFC South divisional battle. This game has one of the lower totals on the slate at just 42.5, as Jameis Winston makes his return to the Saints after missing much of last season and Marcus Mariota makes his Falcons regular season debut. The Saints finished last season with a DVOA of 3rd in the league and ultimately one of the best defenses, so I don’t see a reason to run out and stack up Mariota and this Falcons offense. I do, however, think you can stack up this Saints team in tournaments starting with Jameis Winston. He has a much improved receiving group with the additions of Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and rookie Chris Olave. This is also a team where you can add the RB to your stack in Alvin Kamara due to his pass-catching ability. The Falcons finished 30th in DVOA last season, so even though the total is low I think you can make a case in GPPs.
5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
GPP Note: The New Orleans side makes sense as a stack and I think you can make a case for Mariota naked with his rushing upside.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll start on the Baltimore side of things where Lamar Jackson comes in as the highest-rated quarterback in the Domination Station (below). Jackson stands out in a multitude of ways in this one due to the price tag and matchup against what should be a pretty bad Jets defense yet again this season. The Jets finished dead last in DVOA last season, dead last against the pass, and 26th against the run.
I think you can make a great case in running Lamar out there naked or pairing him up with a few of his pass catchers like Rashod Bateman and/or Mark Andrews to get yourself a Ravens stack in this one. I’m much less on the Jets side of things although the Raven’s defense struggled as well last season, but was great against the run. If you want a silly for the milly type of stack you can go with Wilson (if he suits up) along with any combination of Elijah Moore/Corey Davis/Garrett Wilson/Breece Hall. That being said, the Ravens have a secondary full of Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Fuller, etc… it’s a great secondary.
5-star plays: Lamar Jackson
4-star plays: Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, Breece Hall
GPP Note: The Ravens side is firmly in play as a stack that I feel comfortable with. The Jets on the other hand… I’ll save for MME.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting on the Pittsburgh side of things, Mike Tomlin named Mitch Trubisky the starting quarterback over rookie Kenny Pickett, which is probably the right decision to get the season started. There are some very fantasy-friendly pieces in this Pittsburgh offense, but I’m not sure I want to fully stack them up with Trubisky at the helm. Guys like Najee Harris, George Pickens, and Diontae Johnson are certainly in play and I’d probably only stack up this whole offense in MME, similar to that Jets offense… I just don’t really see the need. The Bengals, on the other hand, are firmly in play as they come strolling into this season with one of the best offenses on paper. That being said, the Steelers did finish top 10 against the pass last season, but really struggled against the run finishing 27th in the league. I won’t talk anyone off of a Joe Burrow stack paired with any combination of Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins/Joe Mixon/Tyler Boyd.
5-star plays: Joe Burrow
4-star plays: Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Diontae Johnson
GPP Note: If I’m stacking either side of this game it’s pretty easily the Bengals, but I don’t know that I’ll be too heavy on either of them in this spot.
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New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll start with the New England side of things which I don’t think is an offense that we’ll be targeting a whole lot this season. Mac Jones looked like a solid game manager and will likely be in the league for a long time, but he never showed us that big ceiling game that we see out of a lot of other quarterbacks. Not to mention, this Dolphins secondary and defense as a whole should be one of the better one’s in the league. If I were to target anyone from the Pats it would probably be either a tight ends, running back, or defensive one-off. The Dolphins offense, on the other hand, is interesting with the addition of Tyreek Hill, which should really help open this offense up, if Tua Tagovailoa can get it to him. The did add a number of running backs as well that I think you can add to a Miami stack, as we’ve seen Chase Edmonds be a solid pass catcher in his NFL career. It’s not a stack that I’m running out to play but Tua stacked up with Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle and/or Mike Gesicki is certainly interesting. However, this Pats defense was top 5 in DVOA and 3rd in the league against the pass last season.
5-star plays: Tyreek Hill
4-star plays: Tua Tagovailoa, Chase Edmonds, Jaylen Waddle
GPP Note: Both Miami and New England are going to have nice defenses again this season and frankly, I don’t trust either of these quarterbacks, so neither are stacks that I’m going too crazy on, but would much prefer the Miami side of this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Washington Commanders
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll start with the the Jaguars as we get a matchup of two teams looking for a better season than last year when neither team had more than seven wins. The Washington defense has some names on it that would make you think they’re a decent defense, but they still finished 27th in DVOA and 28th against the pass last season which makes things look pretty good for Trevor Lawrence and this Jags offense. That being said, with a new coach and another running back in the backfield with Travis Etienne Jr. back in the fold there may be some growing pains. Washington’s offense doesn’t look all that terrible against what is likely to be a bad defense yet again this year. It will just come down to how much you want to trust Carson Wentz to throw the ball. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are both guys that look pretty good as options to stack up with him, but this is a stack right there with the Jets and Pittsburgh where I just don’t see the need to get wild. I do think Antonio Gibson is interesting at running back after the narrative all offseason was negative on him until Brian Robinson had a freak accident which will sideline him for a few weeks.
5-star plays: Jahan Dotson (value)
4-star plays: Carson Wentz, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Travis Etienne Jr.
GPP Note: I’m probably not fully stacking either of these teams, but would prefer the Washington side if you made me pick one.
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
This game comes in with the lowest implied total on the slate at just 41 with two young quarterbacks running the show on both sides of this one. We’ll start with the Niners where there will likely be some one-off interest at quarterback at the very least with the hype around Trey Lance. He has a rushing upside which gives him some fantasy appeal and this Bears defense is awful. Looking at the Domination Station below, he has a DvP of 23 against this Bears defense which looks pretty good for him.
All that said, if I’m playing Lance I don’t think I’m forcing in one of his pass catchers simply because I think a lot of his production comes with his legs. If I were to go to someone it would be between Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as those short-yardage guys over the middle. From the Bears, I’m simply not going to get to them here, I expect them to be one of the worst offenses in the league this season and that’s pretty evident in the implied total in this one.
5-star plays: Trey Lance
4-star plays: Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
GPP Note: I won’t be stacking either team in a game with a total of 41.
Check out Geek’s “First Look Lineup” construction video as well as you prepare for week 1!
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We go from one game with a low implied total, to another in this one with just a 41.5 total. Starting on the Cleveland side, it’s going to be pretty hard for me to like any sort of stack with Jacoby Brissett behind center as they wait for Deshaun Watson to return later this season. I do think you can target pieces of this backfield with guys like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt as one-offs, the Panthers were a pretty average defense last season finishing 15th in DVOA. Nothing that I’m all that thrilled about from Cleveland, however. On the other side of this one, we get some Baker Mayfield revenge against the team that traded him just a few weeks ago. Cleveland finished 7th against the pass last season and should be right around that range again here, so I won’t have a ton of interest in a Carolina stack, but the revenge game is certainly tempting for Baker… it doesn’t help that we haven’t seen him put up a good performance in quite some time. He does have some new toys on this team with Christian McCaffery and DJ Moore who will be his safety blankets this season. Both of those guys look solid as one-offs if you’re like me and don’t want to hitch your wagon to Baker Mayfield right from the jump.
5-star plays: Christian McCaffery
4-star plays: DJ Moore, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Amari Cooper
GPP Note: I’m not all that thrilled to stack either side, probably just one-offs for me.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We’ll begin with the new-look Colts as Matt Ryan makes his regular season debut in a great matchup with this Texans team. Houston finished 23rd in DVOA which makes this Indy offense look pretty respectable on this slate if you need to save some money. Obviously, that savings won’t come with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, but Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman are firmly in play as well. That would probably be my stack as well with Ryan, Taylor, and Pittman since we kind of know where the ball is going in this offense with the lack of weapons elsewhere. If you want to take a flyer on rookie Alec Pierce or a pass-catching running back in Nyheim Hines I get it, but Taylor and Pittman are my favorite pairings. Taylor averaged 30.05 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Texans last season. I don’t think we need to get crazy with the other side of this game although I do think Davis Mills has a sneaky good year for the Texans, I don’t see the need to stack up an offense with a sub-20 implied total.
5-star plays: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman
4-star plays: Matt Ryan, Brandin Cooks
GPP Note: The Colts are in play for me as a full stack on this slate, but I’ll be staying away from Houston.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
We finish off the early slate of games starting with the Eagles, who I’m really high on this season with the addition of AJ Brown to this offense and the potential growth from Jalen Hurts off of last season. The nice thing about Hurts is he can get it done on the ground and through the air and he finally has some legit receiving threats with Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Hurts did struggle in this spot last season with just 11.22 DraftKings points, but I think this Eagles offense is playable in all formats and Hurts is cash viable as well. The Detroit side is less appealing from a full stack perspective but does have some nice one-off options with guys like D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown who broke out last season. This Philly defense finished 25th in DVOA last season, so there is certainly room for production from these Lions guys.
5-star plays: Jalen Hurts, D’Andre Swift
4-star plays: Dallas Goedert, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, TJ Hockenson
GPP Note: The Eagles are firmly in play for all formats, while the Lions will just be one-offs for me for now.
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Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Onto the afternoon games where we get started with what should be a fantasy-friendly game with an implied total of 52 in LA. If you follow me on Twitter (@MadnessDFS), I wrote up Derek Carr as one of the top-rated quarterbacks on the DraftKings main slate. He averaged 17.4 DraftKings points per game last season and now gets a big weapon in Davante Adams making his Raiders debut. I imagine the Raiders will need to throw quite a bit to keep up with this high-powered Chargers offense and hopefully find success against a Chargers defense that ranked 26th in DVOA last season. I think you can make a pretty strong case for a Carr/Davante Adams stack and if you really want to go all in you can add either Hunter Renfrow or Darren Waller to that group. Then we get to this Chargers team that should score a ton of points and be productive for DFS. A full team stack starting with Justin Herbert paired with one or both of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen is firmly in play. This is another offense where I don’t mind throwing the running back in the stack due to Austin Ekelers ability to catch the ball and is a PPR beast.
5-star plays: Davante Adams, Justin Herber, Austin Ekeler
4-star plays: Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
GPP Note: I think both of these teams are stackable, the Raiders are obviously cheaper but I think there is some value in them here.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Packers, this is another case where following me on Twitter can be very beneficial (shameless plug yet again!). Aaron Rodgers averaged 26.91 FanDuel points per game against the Vikings last season and is a guy I like again in this spot. Many people will be down on this Packers offense due to the absence of Davante Adams, however, since 2019 the Packers are 7-0 and averaging 31.6 points per game without Adams. You can stack up Rodgers with any of those value receivers like Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Romeo Doubs, or Robert Tonyan… I am a little lower on Christian Watson to start the season just because he hasn’t had much work with the offense quite yet. I also like pairing Rodgers with Aaron Jones who should see plenty of pass-catching work out of the backfield. This Vikings secondary is not good and I want to pick on them. Speaking of the Vikings, they’re always a fantasy-friendly offense with Kirk Cousins being competent enough to feed the ball to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen along with Dalvin Cook coming out of the backfield. I do think this Packers defense is one of the better defenses in the NFC, but I won’t talk anyone off of getting some pieces of this offense.
5-star plays: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones
4-star plays: Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, AJ Dillon, Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan
GPP Note: I much prefer the Packers side of this one due to the defensive mismatches on both sides, but again, Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the league as well as Cook coming out of the backfield. I will say, Jaire Alexander is back for this Packers D which will hurt Jefferson a bit.
New York Giants @ Tennesse Titans
Vegas odds:
Rundown:
Starting with the Giants, they have an implied total south of the 20 mark which is never something I like to see when thinking about stacking a team, so I highly doubt I get to full stacks here but there are some interesting GPP plays at the very least. Daniel Jones isn’t a very good real-life quarterback but his rushing upside does play well for fantasy purposes. The Titans had a pretty middle-of-the-road defense so I don’t hate getting some exposure to Jones on the afternoon slate, although it’s kind of a loaded slate, he’d still be a tournament guy. My favorite piece from the Giants is actually Saquon Barkley who I think is in for a huge bounce-back season if he can stay healthy, which is a big if, to say the least. The price tag is nice on him in a tougher matchup, but the upside is certainly there. The receiving corps is a different story, I really want to like one of Wan’Dale Robinson or Kadarius Toney, but they’re very similar players and under the new regime, they don’t feel as IN on Toney as the previous staff. It may be more of a stay-away spot for me in week one and use it as an analysis game for the rest of the season. The Titans should stack up pretty well here against this Giants defense but the only piece that I feel the need to write up is King Henry himself. The Giants were dead last against the run last season and we know what Henry is capable of, he’s an elite option in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
5-star plays: Derrick Henry
4-star plays: Robert Woods, Saquon Barkley
GPP Note: It’s basically just the runningbacks in this one for me.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals
Vegas odds:
Total: 53.5
Line: KC -4.0
Rundown:
Last but not least, we’ll round the slate off with the highest implied total at 53.5 as the Chiefs head into Arizona. This Arizona defense ranked really well last season with a DVOA of 6th on the year, but we know what this Kansas City offense is capable of even without Tyreek Hill on the team anymore. Patrick Mahomes will always be in play for me but the tough part will be finding who you can pair up with him outside of Travis Kelce, who makes for a great option. The receiver room is full of guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Skyy Moore who all look like really solid flyer options with JuJu being my favorite. People are quick to forget the quarterback play that JuJu has been playing with for the past few seasons, Mahomes is a massive boost for him and I think he’s in for a big year. I want to be in on him early and often. The running game is a toss-up and probably something I’ll stay away from until there is some consistency back there. From the Cardinals, Kyler Murray will always look like a good option as well due to his rushing upside as well. He’ll be without his top receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for the first part of the season as he serves his suspension but did get Hollywood Brown in a trade from the Ravens who will step in as WR1 right away. I have no issue pairing Murray with any of Brown or Rondale Moore who we saw flashes of greatness last season.
5-star plays: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Kyler Murray
4-star plays: Rondale Moore, Marquise Brown, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
GPP Note: Both sides of this game have the pieces to be in play for a full stack.
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