MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Fanduel and DraftKings Wednesday September 7th, 2022 EARLY and MAIN SLATE

Since we have a bit of a split slate here today, I will break down both EARLY and MAIN DFS slates today! I will edit it after with the main slate pitcher picks!

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

 

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EARLY MLB DFS Slate (6 Games)

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Luis Castillo vs CWS

Good matchup for Castillo here as Gilbert was able to shut out the White Sox last night and I do think Castillo is a better pitcher than him. Castillo has scored pretty well in 3 of his last 4 starts but overall has been really good since getting traded to Seattle. The White Sox numbers don’t look awful against RHP, but Castillo does have 6 inning 2ith 7+ K upside in this matchup. Castillo ended August with a 31% strikeout rate and though he had a tough first start of September in terms of K’s he still has upside here. ALL FORMATS

Spencer Strider @ OAK

Okay, so Kyle Wright did not work out last night for us, but Strider is going to this afternoon against Oakland. Strider is an ELITE strikeout guy who has a massive 38% strikeout rate on the season…Can you believe that he is ranked 10th in strikeouts in the MAJOR LEAGUES, yet has thrown 114.2 innings, that is 22 innings less than the closest pitcher for IP and 50 innings less than the MLB leader in K’s in Gerrit Cole. Strider legit has 10 K upside every time he takes the hill and has a plus matchup with the A’s even though Wright couldn’t stop them last night. ALL FORMATS

Clayton Kershaw vs SFG

Kershaw came back from a month on the IL against the Mets and after struggling in his first inning, really settled in against a great offense, allowing just 1 ER. He only threw 74 pitches in that start, so I do think that Roberts may still have him on a little pitch limit here, but a guy like Kershaw shouldn’t have a pitch limit. The start that he got hurt in was against the same Giants team and he was throwing the ball well in the 4 innings before leaving the game. Overall, his numbers against the Giants this year aren’t great, but we have a smaller slate here so I don’t mind using Kershaw in GPPs. GPP

Patrick Sandoval vs DET

Sandoval is coming off a really good start against the Yankees. He also has not allowed more than 2 ER in a start over his last 6 starts. The last time Sandoval faced the Tigers, he tossed a CGSO with 9 strikeouts and allowed just 4 hits. Detroit is a team that isn’t striking out a ton against LHP, but their offense still isn’t that great. Sandoval has really settled down of late and has been putting together some good outings. GPP

Domingo German vs MIN

The Yankees have been dominating the Twins for YEARS. Minnesota is only 2-22 against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. German hasn’t shown us the good strikeout stuff that he has in the past, but he has been rather solid for them in limiting damage. In 9 starts this year, he has allowed more than 3 ER just 1 time and that was in his 1st start back. Over his last 3 starts, he has thrown 6+ innings in all of them, but just isn’t getting a ton of strikeouts. The Yankees need to win both games today and it starts with German in game 1. GPP

Eric Lauer @ COL

Another day, another Coors pitcher. I don’t feel great about it, but with the way the Rockies are hitting against LHP of late, I have interest in him for his price this afternoon. COL comes into this game against LHP striking out 27% of the time and hitting only .223 with an ISO of .107. Lauer has been hit or miss this season for the Brewers, but with how bad the Rockies are hitting of late, I’m willing to take some chances with him in GPPs. GPP

 

PITCHER RANKINGS EARLY

1. Spencer Strider
2. Luis Castillo
3. Patrick Sandoval
4. Clayton Kershaw
5. Eric Lauer
6. Domingo German

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Top MLB Stacks: EARLY DFS Slate

1. Atlanta Braves
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. New York Yankees

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (6 Games)

Alek Manoah @ BAL

Manoah is rather expensive here tonight, but we don’t have a ton of options with just a 6 game slate. He’s coming off a good stretch of starts against PIT, LAA, and NYY where he went 6+ innings in all of them and did not allow more than 1 ER. Baltimore has been really good of late though. In 3 starts against Baltimore this year, Manoah hasn’t been awful, but he has allowed a bit of runs in the last 2 starts against them. His first start against them he shut them out. Manoah’s K’s have been up and down this year, but with how he’s been throwing of late I am willing to take some stabs. GPP

Yu Darvish vs ARI

Arizona has been good of late, but Darvish is dominant at home. His home/road splits are rather large here too. At home he’s allowing just a .172 batting average against while on the road it jumps up to .242. In the last road start against the Dodgers he did perform very well, not allowing a run in 7 innings while striking out 9. THis matchup is a bit easier than the Dodgers too. Darvish has 6+ innings in 18 straight starts and the last time he faced Arizona he tossed 7 innings with 9 K’s allowing 3 ER. Still pretty good numbers. In 3 starts against the Diamondbacks this season, Darvish has allowed just 4 ER and 3 of them came in his last start. He is limiting their offense to a .132 batting average though and has won 2 of the 3 starts. ALL FORMATS

Cristian Javier vs TEX

The Rangers are coming off a nice win last night in the series but they come into this game against RHP striking out 24.5% of the time. Javier is also a guy that can get a bunch of K’s too. At home this year, he has 81 K’s in 64 innings and limiting hitters to only a .153 batting average. In 4 starts against the Rangers this season, he is 2-1 with 27 K’s in 22 innings and allowing a .203 batting average against. Javier is a consistent pitcher for the Astros and I do believe that he will have a good start here after striking out 7 in 5 innings against them the last time he faced them. ALL FORMATS

Jordan Montgomery vs WSH

Ever since being traded to the Cardinals, Monty has been pretty lights out. He has had that one hiccup start against the Braves, but other than that he has not allowed more than 1 ER in a start and has thrown 4 starts where he did not allow a run. Washington comes into this game striking out 25% of the time against LHP Though Montgomery isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher, he’s been getting a bit more of late. He has 5 wins since getting traded and over 7 K’s in 3 of his 6 starts for the Cards. I do like his upside here and he’s shown some great stuff in St. Louis. LEAN GPP

 

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Cristian Javier
2. Yu Darvish
3. Jordan Montgomery
4. Alek Manoah

Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate

1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Houston Astros
3. Chicago Cubs
4. San Diego Padres
5. Toronto Blue Jays

DINGER OF THE DAY 

Jose Altuve

Altuve is coming off a HR last night and has 2 HR over his last 3 games. He’s now up to 24 HR on the season and has been feasting off left-handed pitching all season. 10 of his 24 HR have come against lefties and he’s hitting .325 with a 1.088 OPS against LHP this season.

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