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MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Fanduel and DraftKings Tuesday September 21st, 2022 MAIN SLATE

We actually have a pretty solid size Wednesday slate for the main slate even with a lot of games on the main slate too. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

 

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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (9 Games)

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Jordan Lyles vs DET

Lyles has really struggled in his 2 starts in September, but he did face some good offenses in the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. Before that he did have 2 good starts against the Guardians and White Sox. This matchup against the Tigers isn’t the worst one though. They come into this game with a 25.5% strikeout rate and are hitting just .219 against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Looking at his splits, he allows a ton LESS home-runs at home. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but with how Detroit is hitting, I’m willing to take a risk in GPPs. GPP

Bailey Ober @ KCR

Good matchup with the Royals here tonight for Ober. In the last 2 weeks against RHP, KC comes into this with a 23.8% strikeout rate. What really stood out to me is their .189 batting average and .082 ISO against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Ober has been better for the Twins on the road this year, where he has a 2.45 ERA and allowing a .215 batting average against. He does only have 8 starts this year though, but has thrown 4 times on the road and at home. I don’t expect him to throw a ton of pitches, but he has shown some really food numbers against KC this year, striking out 9 in 8 innings (2 starts) allowing 4 ER, but 3 came in one game. I do think he does have some upside though here in GPPs for cheap. GPP

Triston McKenzie @ CHW

McKenzie has some good numbers against the White Sox in 3 starts this year. He has a 2.12 ERA, with 22 strikeouts in 17 innings. In 3 September starts, he has allowed just a .216 batting average against. He does have a solid 24.9% strikeout rate on the season and the White Sox are striking out 25.9% of the time against RHP in the last 2 weeks. This will be a good matchup and game here with both teams fighting still in the AL Central race. With his success against the White Sox this year, I am willing to use him in all formats tonight. ALL FORMATS

Lance Lynn vs CHW

Lynn has 3 amazing starts in September for the White Sox and really has 7 straight good starts for the White Sox. Over his last 2 starts against the Guardians, he has tossed 12 innings with 12 strikeouts and allowed just 3 ER. His numbers against the Guardians are really skewed by his first start against them where he allowed 8 ER, but he has allowed just 3 ER in 3 starts since that blunder. He’s been throwing the ball very well for the White Sox and I’m willing to take a chance at him in tournaments tonight. GPP

Robbie Ray @ OAK

Tough splits for Ray here this season, he has really struggled on the road compared to at home. One thing we don’t really have to worry about is him not getting strikeouts. He has 194 K’s in 171.2 innings on the season. In his last couple of starts he has really struggled against the Angels and Braves after he had 2 straight scoreless outings. Ray is a guy who can usually get 7 K’s in a start which he did in all of his August starts. In 3 starts against Oakland this year he has a ton of strikeouts while allowing just 5 ER in 18.2 innings. The A’s come into this game with the 3rd highest strikeout rate against LHP in the last 2 weeks at 31.5% and I don’t see why Ray wouldn’t have a big game here tonight. ALL FORMATS

Blake Snell vs STL

Tough matchup for Snell for sure here against the Cards who have been outstanding against left-handed pitchers. Snell has really been good outside of his start against LAD and CLE where he allowed 11 runs combined in those 2 starts. What I do like about him though, is he is getting a good amount of strikeouts in his last few starts. I don’t fully trust it, but there really isn’t a ton of pitchers that I love on the slate tonight. GPP

Dustin May vs ARI

The Dodgers have already won the NL West, but I think they need to give May a longer leash here heading into the playoffs. My biggest concern here is that he has yet to throw 90 pitches in a start this season. In his 3 September starts, he reallyed struggled in one and was “meh” in the others. He needs to be getting a bit more groundballs to have more success though. Arizona has been striking out a good amount against RHP in the last 2 weeks with a 24.8% strikeout rate. Dave Roberts does always concern me because he doesn’t give his pitchers much of a leash. They really have nothing to play for right now as no one is going to catch them for the #1 seed. GPP because of his manager. 

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

  1. Robbie Ray
  2. Bailey Ober
  3. Triston McKenzie
  4. Lance Lynn
  5. Jordan Lyles
  6. Dustin May
  7. Blake Snell

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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Seattle Mariners
  3. Minnesota Twins
  4. Los Angeles Angels
  5. San Francisco Giants

DINGER OF THE DAY 

Mike Trout

Trout is 5-12 against Dunning in his career with 3 singles and 2 HR. He has cooled off since hitting HR in 7 straight games, but I do like his matchup here too. He’s hitting .333 with a 1.067 OPS against the Rangers this year with 3 HR and 3 doubles.

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Featured Image:

Apr 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) delivers against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports