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MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (12 Games)
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Gerrit Cole vs MIN
**WEATHER ISSUES HERE FOR NYY***
Cole’s biggest struggle against the Twins over his career has been the HR ball. Last time he faced them in Minnesota, he allowed 7 ER. Over his career though, in 4 starts he’s allowed just 9 ER, so 7 of those games in the last start. Meaning he’s allowed just 2 ER to them in his other 19 innings. He’s been great for the Yanks and one of their most reliable pitchers, as he should be. Cole’s last start wasn’t awful against the Angels, he just didn’t get the K’s that we expected. MIN does come into this game with a 23.6% strikeout rate to RHP while hitting .229 and Cole has thrown 6+ innings in 15 straight starts, his last one not over 6 innings was against the Twins. ALL FORMATS
Framber Valdez vs TEX
Valdez has been so consistent for the Astros. He has scored very well in many of his starts and has recorded 23 QS out of his 25 starts this season. Texas surprisingly has been really good against LHP, but he does a good job at limiting damage. One issue is he’s not a massive K guy, but has the ability to get about 1 per inning when he’s on. Valdez has 4 starts against the Rangers this year and he’s at a strikeout per inning while allowing just 3 ER in 28 innings. I love his safety and upside here in this matchup. ALL FORMATS
Shane Bieber @ KCR
Bieber had a rough June and July, but bounced back with an amazing August and started September strong with an 11 K performance. He gets a rather easy matchup with the Royals here too even though hit’s on the road. Despite not striking out a ton against RHP of late, I don’t think this Royals offense is that great and Bieber should be able to have success against him. Bieber has been rather solid on the road this year though with a 2.88 ERA and over a K per inning. 7 straight quality starts for the Biebs and I think he makes it 8 here with a strong outing. ALL FORMATS
Kyle Wright @ OAK
What a good matchup for Wright here against the A’s. Write has tossed 9 straight games with 6+ innings. He isn’t a massive strikeout guy though, but he can keep the ball down and has a nice ballpark to pitch in here tonight in Oakland. They don’t have a ton of power in their lineup and they do have guys who can strikeout a bunch. Wright has not allowed more than 2 ER in his last 4 starts and the last time he did was against a great Mets offense. I think he can put up a solid outing and fantasy scoring, but he really needs to get some more strikeouts to make it worth it for me. I don’t mind him in GPPs thought. ALL FORMATS
Joe Musgrove vs ARI
Arizona has been playing some really good baseball of late, but Musgrove is a guy who can shut them down. He’s coming off a great start against the Giants where he struck out 11 over 6.2 innings. In 1 start against the Diamondbacks this year he tossed 6 innings and struck out 8 hitters while allowing 2 ER and 1 HR. ARI isn’t striking out against RHP in the last couple of weeks, but we know the upside that Musgrove can bring to the table. There are times that he struggles, but with his upside I don’t mind using him in tournaments. GPP
Brandon Woodruff @ COL
A pitcher in Coors that is this expensive doesn’t normally happen. But when you are a guy like Woodruff, you deserve it. I do worry that his strikeout numbers haven’t been amazing, but he does have the ability to record double digit K’s in an outing. COL comes into this game with the 2nd highest strikeout rate against RHP at 27.8% and they aren’t hitting that well against righties either. Their offense does get a boost being in Coors, but I do think that Woodruff can have a good game against them here tonight. GPP
Tyler Anderson vs SFG
San Fran won the game last night, but I don’t think it will be the same game here tonight. In the last 2 weeks, the Giants have really struggled against LHP. They have the 4th highest strikeout rate at 28.2% while hitting just .212 with an ISO of .081. After going 13-0 to start the season, Anderson has been tagged with 3 losses and has not won a decision in 4 starts, but I do like the matchup here against SF even though he did really struggle against them in his last start. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Framber Valdez
- Gerrit Cole (weather issues)
- Shane Bieber
- Kyle Wright
- Joe Musgrove
- Brandon Woodruff
- Tyler Anderson
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Cleveland Guardians
- Baltimore Orioles
- Houston Astros
- Atlanta Braves
DINGER OF THE DAY
Sep 5, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) hits a home run during the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Trout
Trout has been better of late and has a good matchup with Eduardo Rodriguez here tonight. HR in back to back games for Trout and is coming off a solid 3-4 game last night with a double and homer. He’s reached 30 HR this season for the first time since 2019 and has been injury plagued this year too. I love this matchup for the Angels here tonight too.
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Featured Image:
Aug 30, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) throws during the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports