Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/7:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Spencer Strider
- Patrick Sandoval
- Jordan Montgomery
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Washington Nationals @ St Louis Cardinals (-320)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Cory Abbott
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. When we look at Abbott, we see some decent performances and then you see what the Phillies did to him. I think we have that kind of a possibility for the Cardinals offense. Montgomery has been great with the Cardinals and a much talked about pitch usage change has been at the forefront of his success. The Nats do have a couple of guys who can hit LHPs but not enough to scare me off of Montgomery.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (-178)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We may have to consider using Falter as an SP2 on DK in this match-up. The Marlins lineup is so bad right now. I like the match-up for a couple of the PHI bats but maybe not enough for a full stack right now. Hoskins has hit Rogers really well in their previous match-ups.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .052 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (-145)
Pitchers:
Reds – Mike Minor
Cubs – Javier Assad
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Friedl has been swinging a pretty hot bat for CIN while India has been really steady but the overall lineup is very mediocre. The Cubs have a few guys in the top half with a ton of power and Minor can allow some HRs. We will have to pay attention to the wind at Wrigley as the day progresses.
CIN 5-star plays: TJ Friedl
4-star plays: Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees (-160) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Twins – Louie Varland
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This doubleheader is really frustrating to figure out. The Twins are struggling at the plate while most of the Yankees are as well. Judge should be at the top of everybody’s player list. Varland is going to make his MLB debut and I am really interested in seeing how he performs. I think pitching in this doubleheader is where we want to look.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees (-205) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. This total tells us we need to focus on the SPs with an Aaron Judge one-off. I know that Correa has hit Cole well in their match-ups but the rest of the Twins lineup is on the struggle bus. Ryan hasn’t been very good on the road but he gets the Yankees at the right time, if you ask me.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-267)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. JD Davis is 3 for 8 with 3 HRs against Kershaw. That seems like a line that is really impressive given, you know, that Kershaw is a Hall of Famer 5 years after he hangs em up. I do not know how we fade the Dodgers lineup at this point. They just keep coming out swinging, no matter who is on the mound against them.
SF 5-star plays: JD Davis
4-star plays: Lewis Brinson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 over the last week.
New York Mets (-260) @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Pirates – Bryse Wilson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Bassitt lines up as a great option against a weak PIT lineup. I do think he could struggle with Cruz-Reynolds a bit but he has some upside. We have to pay attention to the pitching plans to make sure that neither teams swap their Game 1/Game 2 starters.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Pirates – Johan Oviedo
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Vegas information for this one. As of right now (pending swapping game starters), this game is all about deGrom and deGrom only for me. He’s just always in play, basically no matter what his price point is. I am not sure if game 2 is on any official slate but if it is, stock up on your deGrom shares.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-210)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. I made a statement yesterday, in my cheat sheet, about how annoying the D’Backs lineup has been for opposing SPs. That has me taking Darvish down a step, similar to Musgrove yesterday. Henry has had some nice performances since his debut but he’s coming off of an atrocious one and he has a walks issue. If the Padres wake up, they could be in line for some big innings.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-140) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Hunter Renfroe is going to find himself near the top of my Dinger list in Coors, against an LHP. He has the only HR that the Brewers’ roster has hit against Freeland. I want to like the Rockies in this one but I need to see what kind of a lineup they throw out there against Lauer.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Luis Urias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Elehuris Montero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
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Cleveland Guardians (-140) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cody Morris
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really do not know what to do with this game. I would love to be about the bats but the CLE lineup has been absolutely HORRID of late and the KC lineup isn’t a whole lot better overall. Greinke can give up a bunch of hits and Morris looked rough in his MLB debut. The big difference between the two SPs is that when both are healthy, Morris is the big time K guy while Greinke is the finesse one.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .038 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael A Taylor, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels (-205)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Drew Hutchison
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Sandoval is extremely intriguing to me as he gets a terrible Detroit team, while pitching at home. I think the Angels could score a few runs off of Hutchison but it might be centered around the top part of their lineup. My initial thought is that I don’t want to fully stack them but a 2-3 man stack seems like a capable GPP winning combination.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-285)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Cole Ragans
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Javier is a guy who could absolutely dominate or Seager/Calhoun could continue to hit HRs against him. The Astros lineup has gone ice cold outside of Altuve but they did knock Ragans around pretty well earlier this season. I want to be on the Astros but it may just be mini-stacks and one-offs at this point.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .089 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .085 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-170)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rays – Jeffery Springs
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. For being a game with a 7 total, I am in love with the bats in this one. Both sides have a ton of + BvP in their favor. Pivetta has dealt with a calf issue and any time a pitcher has a leg issue and is going to pitch, it raises the possibility of leaving the ball up in the zone. I have already decided to bet the over in this one, since it sits at just 7 runs as of right now.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners (-195)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Kopech is making his return from the IL and while he has some nasty stuff, I want to play the wait and see game with him. Castillo has been strong and I think puts up a really nice performance but there is a little bit of volatility as the White Sox bats have awoken slightly. This is not a game that I am looking to get multiple bats from.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-267) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
A’s – Ken Waldichuk
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Braves are heating up again and I love to see it. Waldichuk is a legit prospect who flashed great stuff in his debut but he’s facing a team that is capable of putting up 8 on him in a hurry. Riley will probably end up as my Dinger of the Day call by the end of this article. Do we need to talk much about how spectacular Strider is on the mound? I know Wright hurt us last night but Strider is going to dominate (just trying to will it to truth).
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-160) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Manoah has been really good, all season long at this point. The Orioles offense is pretty dangerous so I may not have a lot of Manoah in my builds. I do think the Blue Jays put up some runs but Kremer was just scratched and it’s being said that Wells will start. Bichette is red-hot at the plate and makes a ton of sense as somebody’s Dinger call (just not mine!).
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- Houston Astros
- Toronto Blue Jays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Riley, Atlanta
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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