Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We have three early games followed by a 12-game main slate today, with all sorts of different paths to take. Some of those paths will be chalky (like the one leading to Coors), but others maybe not so much: perhaps there are some decent contrarian stacks lurking in the shadows. Either way, there’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
As usual, we have a lot of pitching options and many ways to go, but this is one of those days where we have a collectively solid staff of starters. Of all the pitchers today, only four of them have a carnage rating worse than 5.66 (remember that a 5.0 is a league average pitcher facing a league average offense). However, only a select few have KSCOREs topping the 500+ mark. At a glance, these two stats might indicate a day where not only are a lot of offenses potentially underwhelming, so might be the starters. That will make it especially important to dig in, but if you don’t time, that’s what we’re here for! Either way, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the early games, the first featuring the Mets and Pirates. Walker and Keller will get the start here, and Vegas has given them an 8.0 opening total. We have some moderate weather concerns (we’ll see more of this soon, unfortunately), so be sure to keep an eye on the skies as the day progresses.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Marte, McNeil/Nimmo/Vogelbach, Alonso
GPP note – Keller is allowing equal xwOBA to both sides (and about the same ISO, too), so hand matchup doesn’t matter a whole lot here.
Pirates 4 star plays – Gamel/Cruz
Pirates 3 star plays – Reynolds/Chavis
GPP note – Basically the same as above, but there aren’t as many hot options here. However, several are hitting righties for at least moderate power, so they’re in play as pivots.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up we have Hill and the Red Sox taking on Rasmussen and the Rays. A 7.0 total, I can see this one going the under if Hill shows up and delivers, as I’m sure Rasmussen will hold his own. We may have a low total, but at least this one is in a dome!
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Bogaerts/Martinez
GPP note – Rasmussen has been tough and there isn’t really a glaring weakness to exploit here. You can always run stacks here and hope their talent gets to him, but it’s a shot in the dark.
Rays 5 star plays – Arozarena
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz/Ramirez
GPP note – Hill is allowing some power to righties, so that’s the way to go here.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Luzardo and the Marlins will take on Nola and the Phillies next, and we move down to a 6.5 total for this one. Not only do we have the lowest total on the day, but we have some serious weather concerns, so this one just isn’t our game. Thankfully it’s not on the main slate!
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Fortes
GPP note – Nola is a tough target as usual, but he is allowing some power to righties. You could try a bat or two from that side if you want to run some contrarian stacks/pivots.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber, Hoskins/Realmuto/Bohm
GPP note – Luzardo has reverse splits working against him too, as he is allowing a fair amount of power to lefties and not much at all to righties.
Main slate
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with the Twins and Yankees. Ryan and Cole will get the start here, and with them, a 7.0 total. Wouldn’t you know it, but we have some bad weather concerns here as well, so be sure you’re keeping an eye on things as there are some important pieces in this game.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays – Correa/Kepler, Gordon
GPP note – It’s a matchup against Cole, so yeah, it’s not great. He is allowing modest power to both sides (nearly the same in terms of statcast numbers), so if you do run anybody against him, the hand won’t really matter.
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3.5 star plays – LeMahieu/Torres
GPP note – Ryan gets his strikeouts but is also allowing a lot of power to righties (and a moderate amount to lefties). This might not be a bad place to hedge some bets.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
White and the Blue Jays will take on Bradish and the Orioles next, and we have an 8.5 total for this one. Unfortunately, we yet again have some weather concerns, so add this one to your list of games to watch as we approach lock. If they play, the bats look pretty decent, so let’s hope that they do.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – Bradish seems to be getting things turned around for himself and hasn’t been allowing a ton of power recently. That, coupled with his decent strikeout rate, means we shouldn’t just blindly stack against him. Rather, be selective and take bats with power.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Rutshman/Mountcastle, Hays//Mullins
GPP note – White has had his struggles lately and has been allowing a fair amount of hits. With those hits comes moderate power and some juicy wOBA to both sides of the plate, so if you go here, you can stack them however you please.
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
We’ll move away from the bad weather now, and we’ll first get the game between the Reds and Cubs. Dunn and Miley get the start here, and with them, a 7.5 total. That does seem a little low, though with how unpredictable these starters can be, I guess they’re just being safe here. I feel like this is the kind of game that will either drop a dud and go mostly unnoticed, or explode with one (or both) of these pitchers being a total gas can.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – India, Farmer
GPP note – Miley has been his usual unpredictable self, so who knows if he’ll give up 3 homers or strike out 10+ batters. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to hedge just in case, as there’s a decent ceiling on both sides of this one.
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Suzuki/Reyes/Ortega
GPP note – Dunn has allowed a lot of power to both sides, as well as some more juicy wOBA numbers, so you can attack him from either side here. There are several bats here hitting righties pretty well, making this a potentially good source of stacks.
Washington Nationals at St Louis Cardinals
Next up we have Espino and the Nationals taking on Quintana and the Cadinals. A 7.5 total, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals cover that by themselves, as this is a pretty nice matchup for them. Quintana hasn’t been pitching well enough to really justify the Nationals’ low total, even if they don’t have Soto/Bell anymore, so perhaps they will come through as a lower-owned pivot option.
Nationals 4 star plays – Meneses, Voit
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Thomas, Vargas, Call
GPP note – Quintana has had some not-so-great outings lately and comes in with a fairly low strikeout rate. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to take some more shots against him while the train is still rolling.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Edman/O’Neill/Nootbaar
GPP note – Espino is coming in allowing a ton of power to righties, which bodes quite well for this offense. It’s business as usual for these bats.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Moving on we have Bieber and the Guardians taking on Bubic and my Royals. Another 7.5 total, I think this one will mostly depend on if the Cleveland offense shows up or not, because they’ll certainly be in a spot to do some damage. As for KC, well…it’s not looking too great.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Gimenez/Gonzalez
GPP note – Both Bubic and these bats come in with low strikeout rates, so I expect a fair amount of fireworks here. Lefties have the power advantage.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Witt/Perez
GPP note – I can’t recommend much here outside of some contrarian mini-stacks.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
We’ll head down south for our next game, this one between the Rangers and Astros. Otto and Valdez will get the start, and what do you know, another 7.5 total. Going over will likely fall on the Astros’ shoulders, as the Rangers will have an uphill battle against Valdez.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Another bad matchup on the day, some of these bats are hitting lefties for power, so some contrarian mini-stacks could be used.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman, Mancini/Tucker
GPP note – Most of these bats are in play, though Otto does allow much more power to lefties, so that would be the better place to attack him from.
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head on over to Coors for our next game, which will be between the Brewers and Rockies. Woodruff and Kuhl will get the start here, and I don’t think there are any surprises here. All I can offer is the reminder to not focus solely on the chalk, but to also remember the budget bats and wrap-around stacks.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, Adames/Wong/McCutchen
GPP note – I don’t think you need my help here.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Cron/Grichuk
GPP note – This matchup is much more interesting and could warrant hedging some bets. Woodruff does allow more power to righties, for what it’s worth.
The MLB DFS Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 📊 DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as a part of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Late games
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with the Tigers and Angels. Rodriuez and Mayers will get the start here, and they’ll have an 8.5 total to work with. Vegas likes most of that to come from the home team, and while that’s fair, I don’t think having exposure to the Detroit offense here would be a terrible thing. Besides, if they go off, you’ll have them all to yourself!
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Greene, Candelario/Baez
GPP note – Mayers is getting his share of strikeouts but it also allowing plenty of contact and power, so some exposure here isn’t a terrible idea. You could even hedge some, especially since he’s so cheap.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher
GPP note – Rodriguez seems to still be finding his footing, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to attack him here. He allows more power to righties, though equal xwOBA to both sides.
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Next up are the White Sox and Mariners, with Cueto and Gilbert getting the start. A 7.0 total, this one doesn’t seem too interesting for either offense, but I think there’s a path for both to get some licks in here. I don’t know that a full game stack is the answer by any means, but I could see a few bats shining by the end of it.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Sheets/Jimenez
GPP note – Gilbert had himself a slump-buster, but the question will be was that enough, or will he get hit around again? This would be a great spot to hedge. Aside from that, he’s allowed much more power to righties recently.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Raleigh/Rodriguez/Haniger/Suarez
GPP note – Cueto’s strikeout rate remains low, though he has picked it up a little in his last two starts. I don’t know what he has enough of a ceiling to warrant hedging, but he does allow more power to lefties. Unfortunately, it’s the righties that are hitting righties well here, so you may have to go against the grain if you go here.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Kelly and the Diamondbacks will take on Musgrove and the Padres next, and we get another 7.0 total for this one. This one does feel like one of the games that will see a lower total, as both pitchers have been on top of things as of late. Of course, I say that now, but if they score double-digits, I guess you can blame me for jinxing them.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker/Varsho, Marte/McCarthy
GPP note – Musgrove is in a good spot here, though he has allowed some power to both sides. Contrarian stacks are in play here, as is some hedging.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Soto
GPP note – While this isn’t a great spot for either side, you can still hedge here considering the raw talent in the matchup.
Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics
We get another 7.0 total for our next game (are you noticing a trend today?), this one between the Braves and Athletics. Wright and Irvin will get the start, and while I think this total is mostly fair (thanks to the home team), I think the Braves will have a decent shot of carrying this game over all by themselves. The best thing I can say about the A’s is…at least nobody will be on them?
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Harris, Olson
GPP note – Irvin allows good power to both sides, a lot of these bats are hitting lefties well, and this implied run total isn’t off the charts. Sounds like a good place to go!
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Murphy
GPP note – Wright has been tough and most of these bats are ice cold. Sounds like a bad place to go!
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Giants and Dodgers. Rogers and Anderson will get the start here, and while I don’t have a total at the time of writing this, I’m sure it’ll be another 7.0, as that’s how this day has gone. Anyway, there’s not much that should be too surprising here. The Giants look to be in a fairly tough matchup, while the Dodgers are in one where they can thrive.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Longoria
GPP note – Anderson doesn’t come in with a huge strikeout rate, but he’s doing enough to not get blown up and keep the opposing offense in check. This doesn’t feel like a strong contrarian or hedge option.
Dodgers 5 star plays -Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner
GPP note – Rogers has a low strikeout rate and allows plenty of power to both sides (more to lefties). I don’t think he’s going to have a good night.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.