Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/4:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Fried
- Carlos Carrasco
- Nick Lodolo
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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-320)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. We are always picking on the Nationals with the opposing pitching and today is no different. The Mets really let me down on Saturday but I plan on going back to them quite a bit. They have a lot of plus BvP in their favor against Fedde.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Starling Marte
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-267)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. On the surface, this is a really strong pitching match-up. Lopez hasn’t been as dominant but he’s very capable. Fried should end up one of our favorite plays. The ATL lineup has picked it up recently and they actually have some plus BvP against Lopez.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .087 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals (-190)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. If you are a fan of BvP (like I am), you have to absolutely LOVE the way the Cardinals have hit Stroman in their careers and this season. Mikolas could be a strong GPP option but there are a few Cubs who have either hit him well or are swinging it well at the moment.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Twins – Dylan Bundy
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Twins looked atrocious last night (Cease is damn good) so I don’t have a ton of confidence in them. I have been picking on Giolito much of the season but that might not be the case today. A few of the CWS bats have hit Bundy decently well in their careers.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Nick Gordon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants (-125)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I really like this SP match-up but its one that can see a bunch of walks happen. Rodon is going to offer us one of the highest ceilings today. Suarez is always capable and he gets to take on a lineup that generally has a ton of LHBs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-220) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I want to be on the TOR lineup to wake up but I don’t want to bank on it right now. Stripling has been sneaky excellent for TOR this season so he is somebody who will be on my radar as an SP2 on DK today.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
Pitchers:
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Dodgers – Caleb Ferguson (bullpen game)
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. The Dodgers got to Manaea and made me look smart last night. I think they can get to Clevinger as well in the Sunday night game. The bullpen of the Dodgers has been pretty good but they haven’t had much for bullpen games this season so I do think the SD lineup could do some damage.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-160)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Jason Alexander
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I point it out all the time but Gallen always makes my pool because I think he’s very underrated. The MIL lineup can struggle quite a bit, even though they did wake up late last night. I like the ARI lineup quite a bit against Alexander but they aren’t some lock and load stack option.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Jake McCarthy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners (-130) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Guardians have hit just 1 HR over the last week. With how much the lineup has struggled, that puts Kirby near the top of my SP list. The only thing holding him back is the fact that SEA is cutting back his pitch counts to help save on his young arm. France is red hot again at the plate.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Cal Raleigh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .037 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-120)
Pitchers:
Royals – Max Castillo
Tigers – Matt Manning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Royals lineup has picked up some steam over the last week and that has me intrigued as a low-owned GPP stack today. There isn’t much to like about the Tigers right now but you can use one of the two guys below as a cheaper one-off in your builds.
KC 5-star plays: Nick Pratto
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .241 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-165) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Angels – Tucker Davidson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am a bit shocked at the total in this game. We know that the LAA lineup is pretty weak overall while the Astros are ice cold at the plate, overall. I do think targeting this game with one-offs is a great idea because there might be a couple of HRs hit.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
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Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Red Sox – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We are waiting on BOS to announce an official SP for today. Right now, I don’t think it really matters in this one. I will, again, be all about this game from an offensive standpoint. As you can see below, I really love bats from both sides and think we see 10+ runs today.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Bubba Thompson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-125) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Frankie Montas
Rays – Shawn Armstrong/Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I know the Yankees are struggling but to see a total of just 7 is insane. A handful of the NYY bats have hit Armstrong/Yarbrough pretty well in their careers. I have this weird feeling that Stanton goes deep today. Montas hasn’t been great with the Yankees so it’s tough to go to him in our builds.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (-190)
Pitchers:
A’s – Adrian Martinez
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The BAL lineup hasn’t been racking up the hits of late but they are still hitting HRs and Martinez has been pretty bad on the road. Watkins is going to be a decent SP2 option since the OAK lineup is so damn bad overall.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds (-125) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Lodolo has been extremely impressive at home. I think he has what it takes to be a top option today, against a struggling COL offense. Marquez is a tough one to figure out and while CIN shouldn’t be a worrisome match-up, he probably gives up 2-3 HRs in this park.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Bouchard
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds – Game 2
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jose Urena
Reds – Chase Anderson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We definitely could see a bunch of runs in game 2 thanks to the weaker SP options. Every time I pick on Urena when he’s on the road, he makes me cry. India is rolling at the plate and a few of the CIN LHBs could make for a nice stack.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Mets
- St Louis Cardinals
- Kansas City Royals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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