Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/3:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer (this is obvious)
- Adam Wainwright
- Nick Lodolo
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Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-456)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Mets – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. I don’t think we need to cover this game with too many words. Scherzer and the Mets are MASSIVE home favorites. Their bats are in a great spot against the ghost of Patrick Corbin. Don’t overthink it, just attack the Nationals from ALL the angles.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves (-205)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Braves – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Odorizzi hasn’t been great for ATL but he hasn’t been terrible either. He gets a very plus match-up against a struggling MIA lineup. Cabrera has an incredible arm but we just saw ATL knock around Sandy Alcantara on Friday night. That will probably give the ATL stack some ownership.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Michael Harris
4-star plays: Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals (-220)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a couple of scenarios that I love to jump on in this game. First, we get Wainwright pitching at home as a favorite. He is one of my favorite SPs whenever he gets to pitch at home. The other scenario is the Cardinals getting to face a mediocre LHP. They have a handful of bats that can absolutely destroy LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Albert Pujols
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-135)
Pitchers:
Twins – Tyler Mahle
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Mahle is returning from the IL so we will need to monitor the news as far as potential pitch limit, etc. Cease is battling for the AL Cy Young and has a chance to put up an impressive performance with Verlander and McClanahan on the IL right now. I’d like to see a pitcher’s duel in this one.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
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Philadelphia Phillies (-130) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Phillies – Noah Syndergaard
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I want to believe we will see some offense from PHI but they aren’t swinging it well, at all. The Giants woke up last night and Syndergaard is a pitcher who could allow them to keep it rolling. Unfortunately, I just don’t know who to go with on SF right now, aside from Big Joc.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Brandon Marsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-165) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Trevor Richards
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We are going to see a bullpen game out of TOR which is frustrating given how we like to use pitchers against PIT. Contreras is a young and electric arm who has flashed great stuff. He is certainly capable of putting up an impressive performance but the one thing to watch out for is that he’s been a bit of reverse splits pitcher and the Blue Jays are loaded with powerful RHBs.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. The current LAD roster has a combined OPS of 1.066 against Manaea in their careers. After they were embarrassed a bit last night, I would NOT be shocked if they come out tonight and put up 7+ runs. Machado keeps hitting HRs and he has hit LHPs extremely well.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-178) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I do expect Burnes to bounce back a bit but the ARI lineup has been really pesky and annoying for opposing pitchers. I do think that Bumgarner gives up a couple of Bombs, even though the MIL lineup tends to struggle against LHPs. Renfroe has hit him extremely well.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners (-120) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Guardians – Xzavion Curry
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Ray should dominate a struggling CLE lineup. Curry has shown some upside but he was hit hard by LHBs in his debut. I think SEA stays hot at the plate in this one.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Cal Raleigh, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Team ISO of .257 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Amed Rosario
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .058 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jon Heasley
Tigers – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really have no desire to look at this crappy match-up. With that being said, I do believe that both sides have a one-off or two that could lead us to a GPP victory. Dozier and Perez have had success against Pineda. I might make Kerry Carpenter the main GPP target today, based on his power upside.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Houston Astros (EVEN) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Ohtani has been throwing it extremely well and gets HOU at a time when they aren’t swinging it with much power. He’s definitely worth a look in your GPPs. I have this weird feeling that Trout has a big game and LAA pulls this one out but Garcia has been good in his own right.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Mike Ford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
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Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rangers – Undecided
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information and the Rangers to make an SP announcement. I expect there to be plenty of runs between these two teams again. Bello has started to look better but I love the way the top of the TEX lineup is swinging it. Boston bats helped us out last night and I like to ride them when they are in Fenway.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (-135)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Schmidt might be stretched out enough but he gets the Rays at a time when their offense has awoken. Kluber is always capable of strong performances but do we really want to use a veteran SP against this NYY team?
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (-225)
Pitchers:
A’s – Adam Oller
Orioles – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really have no desire to look at the OAK side. Voth could be an interesting SP2 option on DK but I wouldn’t consider him for more than a dart share on FD. The BAL lineup hasn’t been great recently but they should put up some runs against Oller.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Gunnar Henderson
4-star plays: Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds (-120)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Lodolo has been extremely impressive at home. I think he has what it takes to be a top option today, against a struggling COL offense. Marquez is a tough one to figure out and while CIN shouldn’t be a worrisome match-up, he probably gives up 2-3 HRs in this park.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Bouchard
GPP Note: Team ISO of .067 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Jonathan India
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Spencer Steer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Mets
- St Louis Cardinals
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Pete Alonso, Mets
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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