Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a couple of early games, followed by a 13-game main slate. As we roll into September baseball, we’ll start to see more and more new names and late scratches, so be sure you’re paying extra attention to starting lineups as we approach lock. Until then, there’s a lot to cover for today, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get our usual wide range of options today, but at first glance the stats are a little interesting. Though we only have a few pitchers who top the 500 KSCORE mark, nearly half of the starters today have fairly low ISO given up over the past month or so. This may make it little trickier than usual to find the best top-end pitchers, as well as pinpoint where the big bats might come from. If you don’t have the time to figure it out yourself, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!
Early games
Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with one of the early games, starting with the Blue Jays and Pirates. Manoah and Oviedo will get the start, and with them, an 8.0 total. I think Toronto will carry most of the load here, and this one looks pretty straight forward, considering the matchup.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Hernandez/Chapman
GPP note – Oviedo has no problem giving up power to righties, which works out pretty well for this team. It’s business as usual for these bats.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Gamel
GPP note – Manoah has looked solid again as of late, but is still allowing a good chunk of xwOBA and power to lefties, so don’t be afraid to take some swings at him here.
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have Freeland and the Rockies taking on Cessa and the Reds. We get a healthy 9.5 total here, and again, this one looks to be pretty straight forward. It’s a shame this one isn’t on the main slate, but that’s how these things go.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Cron
GPP note – Cessa hasn’t looked fantastic as he’s picked up more innings, allowing plenty of power to both sides (like those three homers given up in the last two games). You can attack him from either side here but be warned that these guys haven’t been hitting righties very well as of late, so maybe medium-sized stacks might be best.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – India, Farmer/Solano
GPP note – Picking on Freeland is always fun and in play, and today is no different. Stacks of any size are in play here, and hand selection doesn’t really matter that much against him.
Main slate
Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll move on to the main slate now, starting with the Athletics and Orioles. They’ll have Sears and Kremer on the hill, and Vegas gives us an 8.0 total for this one. While I don’t see this game being a scorcher for fantasy points, I do think there will be a few bats that have some good days, so be sure to dig in a little to find a gem or two.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Murphy/Garcia/Langeliers
GPP note – Kremer has reverse splits working against him, so if you go here, grab some righties to take advantage of the .230+ ISO he’s allowed to them over the past month or so.
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander/Mountcastle
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Urias/Aguilar
GPP note – A decent traditional splits matchup for the righties, Sears has allowed above-average power to them as of late and doesn’t exactly have a threatening strikeout rate.
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have Lynch and my Royals taking on Hutchison and the Tigers. We get an 8.5 total for this one, and I always get excited when we’re facing a team that we might be able to beat (that’s the sub-.500 life for you). Anyway, this seems like another game where we’ll get a few decent bats, but I don’t know that full stacks will win the day.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Witt, Melendez/Pratto
GPP note – A plus matchup for these guys, Hutchison allows good power to lefties and xwOBA to righties, so if you do go here, you can attack him from either side.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Reyes/Baez, Castro
GPP note – Lynch allows good xwOBA to both sides, but quite a bit of power to lefties. If you go here, give them a look for some super low-owned options in a good spot.
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians
Castillo and the Mariners will take on Plesac and the Guardians next, and Vegas has a 7.5 total as an opening mark for them. If both pitchers show up I think we could see the under here, and I think that’s more likely than one of these teams going off the rails. Perhaps a bat or two could hit a homer, and with such a low total, they won’t be too highly owned.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Suarez/Rodriguez, Raleigh
GPP note – An average or so matchup for the Mariners, Plesac does have a decent strikeout rate but also is allowing some power to both sides, as well as a lot of wOBA to lefties. I don’t think huge stacks are the play here, but some one-offs or mini-stacks could be useful.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Gimenez
GPP note – Castillo is a tough target, so I can’t recommend heavy contrarian stacks here. However, he does allow moderate power to both sides, so a one-off or mini-stack in a big tournament isn’t off the table.
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Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Moving on, we next have Keuchel and the Rangers taking on Pivetta and the Red Sox. A hearty 10.0 total, we get what will probably be a chalk offense going up against a gas can on one side. On the other, we have a capable offense going up against Pivetta who can certainly be hit-or-miss. This one has a decent chance to go the over, so be sure you’ve got your shares.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager/Lowe
GPP note – Traditional splits are the flavor here, though this is mostly just an average (or slightly below) matchup.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Martinez/Bogaerts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Pham, Verdugo/Dalbec
GPP note – Keuchel looked like hot garbage against the Tigers in his return, so there’s a pretty good chance he’ll do that again here. Feel free to attack him from any angle here, but with an IRT approaching 6.0, they won’t be sneaky. Consider some wrap-around or lower-owned secondary stacks to deal with that.
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Gray and the Nationals are set to take on Peterson and the Nationals next, and this looks to be one of the lopsided games on the day. The Mets shouldn’t have much problem here, unless they just forget to show up. That’s not to say none of the Nationals are useful, as some might be, but probably not big groups of them.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Cruz, Ruiz
GPP note – Though this isn’t a good matchup for these bats, Peterson does have some solid xwOBA and ISO numbers against him coming from righties. There are plenty of them here, and a few are hitting lefties for power, so this is another source of a few super low-owned, but potentially useful, pivots.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Nimmo/McNeil/Vogelbach, Marte
GPP note – Speaking of juicy statcast numbers, Gray has lots working against him, but unfortunately for him, they are coming from both sides of the plate. In other words, everybody is in play here, so keep that in mind as people will flock here today.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll head down south for our next game, which will be between the Yankees and Rays. German and Springs will get the start here, and with them, a 7.0 total. With German seemingly coming back to form, that seems like a fair total, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the under here.
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3 star plays – Stanton, Benintendi
GPP note – Springs has been tough but does allow moderate contact and power to lefties. You can always grab Judge, but maybe a lefty could be useful here, too.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena, Diaz
GPP note – German looks as though he may be getting his feet back under him, so I’d be cautious with big stacks here. He was allowing good power to righties before that though, so that could be an option if you wanted to go here.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
We get some weather concerns with our next game, which is between the Marlins and Braves. Alcantara and Morton will get the start, and they have the same 7.0 total as the previous game. As long as the starters can stay in it, I don’t see either offense going bonkers here, so let’s hope mother nature cooperates.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Anderson
GPP note – Though this is a tough matchup against Morton, the only saving grace here is that there might be some weather concerns. If they start and get a rain delay, there’s a chance they may get to avoid facing him, so if you’re feeling bold, here’s a dart for you to throw.
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna
Braves 3.5 star plays – Olson/Harris, Riley
GPP note – Not a great matchup for either side, but there’s certainly a high ceiling for both parties involved. Consider hedging if you go here, and if you do, lefties have the advantage in power.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Next up we have Gray and the Twins taking on Martin and the White Sox. This one seems a little closer than what I was expecting, seeing how well Gray has been and all. I guess we’ll see how it goes, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one stay under the 8.0 total, either.
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco/Buxton
Twins 3.5 star plays – Correa, Gordon
GPP note – Martin allows big power to lefties and carries a below-average strikeout rate, so feel free to grab some medium, or even large, sized stacks.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Sheets, Abreu/Vaughn
GPP note – Gray can hold his own here, so I’d be careful trying to stack too hard. A few one-offs or mini-stacks should be okay, as he does allow moderate power to righties, and there are plenty of them here.
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Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
We get a rivalry game next, this one between the Cubs and Cardinals. Sampson and Montgomery will get the start here, and with that, an 8.0 total. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see the home team drag this game across the over all by themselves, but others will see that too I’m sure, so this one is bound to be chalky. Perhaps there will be some lower-owned bats deeper in the lineup to help with that?
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras/Happ, Suzuki
Cubs 3 star plays – Reyes/Morel
GPP note – This is a pretty unfavorable matchup, though a few of these bats are hitting lefties for some power. It might not be a bad idea to hedge here, though I’d probably favor having more exposure to Montgomery than to these bats.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Nootbaar, Edman/O’Neill
GPP note – This was already a juicy matchup, but add in the fact that Sampson’s RvR numbers are much worse than his RvL ones, and we have a very enticing spot for some fantasy goodness. Be sure to grab non-chalky RvR bats and those near the bottom of the lineup to be a little different.
Late games
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll move on to the late games next, starting with the Astros and Angels. McCullers and Detmers get the start here, complete with an 8.0 total. This one has hedging written all over it, at least in my eyes, but do with that what you will.
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve
Astros 3.5 star plays – Bregman/Mancini
GPP note – These guys are always in play to some extent, though this isn’t a great matchup by any means. Hedging is certainly an option, as there could be a high ceiling on both sides.
Angels 4 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Ward/Rengifo
GPP note – Similar idea as above, though Lance isn’t performing as well as Detmers is right now. The righties get the power advantage here, though there’s plenty of xwOBA being allowed to lefties.
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Lauer and the Brewers will take on Davies and the Diamondbacks next, and Vegas has them down for an 8.5 total. I was really surprised that they had these teams split down the middle, as I would have thought the Brewers would have been favored, but maybe they see something I don’t see. Or hey, maybe I see something they don’t see…maybe you see it, too?
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, Renfroe/Adames
GPP note – This feels like a spot that’s better than the 4.25 IRT they opened with, so hopefully their ownership won’t be too high. Righties have the power advantage here, for what it’s worth.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Rojas/Walker, McCarthy
GPP note – This isn’t really the spot you’d think to look, but Lauer’s strikeout rate has dropped and he’s allowing some power to righties while allowing a lot of xwOBA to lefties. I wouldn’t take full contrarian stacks here, but perhaps some one-offs or mini-stacks could be useful.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up we have the Padres and Dodgers, with Darvish and May on the mound. Another game that has hedging written all over it, there’s a ton of firepower here to choose from, even if the matchup is going to be difficult for all parties involved. What better way to have a game go into the night?
Padres 4 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 3 star plays – Bell/Drury, Profar
GPP note – This may or may not be a good spot, but we’ll see how May does against a team better than the Marlins. This feels like a good hedge spot with such high ceilings on both sides.
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 3 star plays – Turner/Turner, Muncy/Gallo
GPP note – Same idea as above, though the Dodgers seem to have a decent feel for how to approach Darvish. Hedging is certainly an option, as both sides offer high ceilings.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Phillies and Giants, with Gibson and Cobb on the mound. We move down to a 7.5 total to finish out the day, and for the most part I think that’s pretty fair. It’ll probably get overshadowed by the previous game, but there still might be some useful pieces here, so don’t forget about them.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber, Realmuto/Hoskins
GPP note – Cobb has been tough to both sides and has a strikeout rate that is well above average, so I can’t tell you to go crazy with stacks here. I think a few pieces would be fine, but there’s no glaring advantage here.
Giants 4 star plays – Pederson, Crawford
Giants 3.5 star plays – Yastrzemski
GPP note – Gibson allows decent contact and power to lefties, and I think these bats will have a better chance of producing some fantasy goodness for us.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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