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MLB DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections Today September 21st | Fanduel Draftkings

Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a split day today, with 6 early games followed by 9 on the main slate. We have some interesting scenarios at play today, such as a lower-than-average Coors game, a few spots where teams are in good spots but lack Vegas love, and some where Vegas really likes a team but perhaps they face a pitching squad that could keep them in check. Days like this are fun, especially with how September baseball can be, so let’s dig in and see what hidden gems we can find!

A look at pitchers

 

Even with the day split, we have a nice range of pitching options on all slates today. On the carnage report, the early games just look like a smaller version of the main slate, as both include several pitchers in every range. We get a few with strong KSCOREs (such as Gausman and Snell), some with very low ones (like Houser and Bumgarner), and all sorts of scores in between. We have a lot who are allowing quite a bit of power to both sides (Anderson, Gray, Dunning, and Davidson, for example), but also some who are getting by with much lower ISO scores (like McCullers and Lynn). Days like these are great for DFS purposes, as those who take the time to dig in can find some gems to hoard and traps to avoid. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in!



Early games

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

We’ll kick things off with the early games, the first between then Nationals and Braves. Gray and Elder get the start here, and Vegas gives us an 8.5 total for our first game. This one looks pretty straight forward, as the home team is in a good spot here. I don’t think the visiting Nationals will go without some sort of a fight, but it might not be a very spectacular one.

Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Voit/Thomas
GPP note – A lot of these bats are hitting righties well, so don’t be afraid to try some RvR mini-stacks here.

Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays
– Riley/Harris
GPP note
– Gray allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate and comes in with a below-average strikeout rate, making this a good spot for these bats to feast.


New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

Next up we have Walker and the Mets taking on Houser and the Brewers. Another 8.5 total, Vegas likes this one to play a lot closer, as both teams are within about half a run of one another. This surprises me a little, as I think the Mets will have it by a run or two, but we’ll see if these bats can get the Houser and his lack of given up home runs.

Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Escobar/Alonso
GPP note – Houser hasn’t allowed much power recently (no homers since late June) but tends to allow homers in spurts when he does allow them. There’s not much strikeout upside in this matchup, so going heavy or going with a fade might be preferable over matching the field.

Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays
– Yelich/Adames
GPP note
– We have some bats hitting righties well going up against a pitcher who isn’t allowing a whole lot of power. This might be a good hedge spot since there’s decent upside on both sides.


Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds

Seabold and the Red Sox will take on Anderson and the Reds next, this game with a healthy 9.5 total. There could be some weather concerns here, but hopefully it may only hurt the starting pitchers. Seeing as they’ll likely go mostly unused here, it shouldn’t put too much of a damper on the game for our purposes.

Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez/Bogaerts
GPP note – Anderson allows plenty of power to both sides but does come in with a decent strikeout rate. I think I’d lean towards these bats, but I don’t hate the idea of a few hedge lineups using him as a budget bomber.

Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays
– Aquino, Fraley/India
GPP note
– A few bats are hitting well, but there’s not a ton to go off of here. I think smaller stacks are the play with these bats, but don’t overlook them.


Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays

Moving on we have McCullers and the Astros set to take on Kluber and the Rays. Vegas gives us a 7.0 total here, which is to be expected considering the talent we have in our starting pitchers. It’s interesting to think that even though this game has one of the lower totals on the slate, the individual players may have some of the highest ceilings.

Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve
GPP note – An iffy matchup for both sides, there’s some power upside here, and hopefully their low IRT will keep people off of them. I don’t know if Kluber has enough strikeout upside in this matchup to hedge, but I’d definitely have some exposure here.

Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays
– Diaz/Arozarena/Franco
GPP note
– These bats aren’t hitting righties all that well right now, so I think I’d be careful going too hard with the contrarian stacks here.


Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins

Speaking of low totals, our next game has the lowest at a 6.5. Stroman and Luzardo will face off here, as the Cubs take on the Marlins. This game looks to be a story of starting pitchers and a few key contrarian bats, so choose wisely!

Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Gomes
GPP note – Luzardo has some reverse splits working against him, so consider grabbing some LvL bats wherever possible.

Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays
– Anderson
GPP note
– Not a great matchup for these bats, but a contrarian bat or two could be useful. Stroman isn’t allowing much power to either side of the plate, so be careful here.


Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies

We’ll round out the early games with the Blue Jays and Phillies, with Gausman and Wheeler on the mound. An 8.0 total, this is another game that Vegas sees as evenly split, I will admit that this one is a tough one to choose sides with. It might just depend on which starter comes out first, so if you’re using the bats, you may have to be patient.

Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
GPP note – Wheeler had some struggles the last time he started, so attacking him here isn’t a terrible idea. He was allowing decent xwOBA to both sides of the plate, though much more power to lefties.

Phillies 4 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3.5 star plays
– Schwarber, Realmuto
GPP note
– There are some reverse splits working against Gausman, so if you go here, consider grabbing a power righty or two.


DFS MLB Weather Picks

Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a role in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.


Main slate

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

We’ll head on over to the main slate now, starting with the Tigers and Orioles led by Manning and Lyles. An 8.5 total, it’s always fun to have a bunch of budget bats in a game with a nice total, and there are plenty of them here. Will we have some budget bombers here who help take down a tournament today?

Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez
GPP note – Lyles is another pitcher with some reverse splits working against him, so you can get some budget RvR bats with next to zero ownership who offer some upside.

Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays
– Santander/Rutschman, Mountcastle/Mullins
GPP note
– Manning has been decent but these guys are hitting righties well, so both sides are worth a look. Budget hedge spot?


Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

Contreras and the Pirates will take on Severino and the Yankees next, and we have an 8.0 total for this one. Regardless of how Severino performs, surely the Yankees will take this one, but I could see an upset if things start off a little weird. It is September, after all.

Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Cruz
GPP note – Probably a bad matchup, but since this is Severino’s first game back, you could always throw a dart here and hope he’s a little rusty in his return.

Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays
– Stanton/Torres
GPP note
– Contreras doesn’t allow much power, so instead of going with big stacks, consider smaller ones or fading them as a pivot to them being a popular non-Coors choice.


Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Next up we have the Angels and Rangers, with Davidson and Dunning to start. We move back up to an 8.5 total, but this time we have some studs, so it’s not quite as interesting as the first game on this slate. That is, of course, unless we get a home run derby, so we’ll see if one of these $6k bats can keep some of the budget bombers at bay.

Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Rengifo
GPP note – Dunning allows plenty to both sides of the plate (more power to righties), so I like this spot a little better than the sub-4.0 IRT Vegas is giving them.

Rangers 5 star plays – Semien
Rangers 4 star plays
– Garcia, Lowe/Seager
GPP note
– Davidson allows plenty of contact and power to both sides and comes in with a below-average strikeout rate. It’s a solid spot for these guys, so have your shares.


Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

Moving on we have McKenzie and the Guardians set to take on Lynn and the White Sox. A 7.5 total, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see this one go the under, as both pitchers are coming in looking mighty strong. There’s a small chance of weather concerns, so keep your eye on this one as we approach lock.

Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Gonzalez
GPP note – Lynn doesn’t allow a whole lot of power and comes in with a strong strikeout rate, so I’d choose carefully if you go here.

White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays
– Abreu/Jimenez/Vaughn/Andrus
GPP note
– McKenzie allows moderate power to both sides of the plate but comes in with a strong strikeout rate like Lynn does. These bats are hitting righties well, so if you’re looking for an interesting hedge spot, here you go.


Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Ober and the Twin will take on Lynch and my Royals next, complete with an 8.0 total. There’s a much better chance of some weather upsetting this game than the previous one, so definitely stay tuned if you’re running some stacks or arms here (though I’d definitely favor the visitors).

Twins 5 star plays – Correa
Twins 4 star plays – Arraez/Miranda/Urshela
GPP note – Lynch allows plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, as does this bullpen, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them blow by their low 4’s IRT. This could be a good place to pivot to or supplement chalky Coors lineups.

Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays
– Perez/Witt
GPP note
– This seems to be an uninspiring spot, so I can’t recommend much more aside from a power bat or two.


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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Next up we have a goofy Coors game between the Giants and Rockies. Webb and Marquez will get the start here, and Vegas is (only) giving us a 9.5 total. That’s not very exciting for a game here, and to top it off, they may not even play with how the weather forecast works. This could be one of those times where it’s actually riskier to play the bats here than to fade them. What fun!

Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski/Crawford/Pederson
GPP note – It’s Coors, so do your thing – or fade them in hopes that they drop a dud.

Rockies 5 star plays – McMahon
Rockies 4 star plays
– Blackmon/Cron
GPP note
– Same as above. It’s a fairly low total for a Coors game, so perhaps it would be best to figure out how the masses will approach this one and go the other way. Perhaps Marquez and Webb will have an exciting duel and keep it well below the under/over mark?


Late slates

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

We’ll switch over to the late games next, starting with the Mariners and Athletics. A 7.0 total, we have Ray and Kaprielian getting the start here. This one looks like easy pickings for the visitors, and it’s interesting that they’re barely over a 4.0 total here. We’ll see how it plays out, but I know where my money is.

Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – France/Raleigh/Santana/Suarez
GPP note – This is a great spot for the righties, as Kaprielian gives up lots of contact and power to them. He also carries a low strikeout rate, so this is another spot I like more than Vegas does.

Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays
– none
GPP note
– Ray allows some power to lefties, but aside from a contrarian bat or two, I can’t get too excited about these guys.


St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

Next up we have the Cardinals and Padres, with Mikolas and Snell to get the start. We get a 7.5 total here, and like the Houston/Tampa Bay game, I think there’s more upside to these players than what the game total hints at. If you’re into hedging, this is the game for you.

Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Pujols/Edman/Molina
GPP note – This will be a challenge for these guys, but with how well they can (and are) hitting, and the fact that Snell does allow some power along with his high strikeout rate, this seems like the perfect hedge spot.

Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 4 star plays
– Drury
GPP note
– Mikolas allows some power to both sides and carries a rather low strikeout rate, so jumping on some of these bats might not be a bad idea. Hopefully the sub-4.0 IRT will give them less ownership than they might have otherwise.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Bumgarner and May will get the start here, and aside from the thought that perhaps May isn’t quite where he could be, I don’t think we’ll get any surprises here.

Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/McCarthy
GPP note – May looked better in his last outing but still hasn’t shown dominant strikeout stuff since his first start. I wouldn’t go crazy, but a few contrarian bats wouldn’t be a terrible idea.

Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays
– Turner/Turner, et all
GPP note
 – Seemingly the best matchup on the day, there’s not a bat here that’s not in play. The cheaper bats here could prove to be especially useful tonight.


NFL DFS


And that’s going to do it for this one.  Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.  Best of luck today!

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