Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/20:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Dylan Cease
- Nestor Cortes
- Luis Castillo
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Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-335)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. All aboard the Braves’ train in this match-up. We like to pick on the artist formerly known as Patrick Corbin. Ok, Ok, he’s still known as Patrick Corbin but he certainly doesn’t pitch like Patrick Corbin used to. I think Morton will end up making plenty of sense in a spot where he’s an extreme home favorite.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Abrams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, William Contreras
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins (-155)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Well, we have a game that shouldn’t be very exciting. I do want to see how Lopez finishes out the season. He was spectacular to begin the 2022 campaign but then hit some road blocks. I want to see him finish it out strong, heading into an offseason where he could be traded (hopefully to the Twins).
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (-160) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 10. Guess which one of us was EXTREMELY wrong about yesterday’s game in Coors? Yeah, that would be me! I do stand by my take because neither offense had been able to hit themselves out of a wet paper bag prior to yesterday. Game 1 saw 17 runs by the end of the game (took em 10 innings tho!). Vegas thinks this one is even lower scoring! But in all seriousness, while it is Coors, I still prefer the SPs in this one more than stacks.
SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria
4-star plays: Thairo Estrada, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Connor Joe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
New York Mets (EVEN) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Both pitchers are capable of getting blown up but they are also capable of putting up strong K performances. I am not sure what to do with Ashby yet as we need an update on potential limitations. I do like a few bats in this game as one-off HR options, mainly Alonso and Adames.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Darin Ruf, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (-120)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. What an interesting match-up we have going on here. Neither offense has been doing a whole lot of great things recently so I think the pitchers make for interesting GPP options. We know that both offenses are capable of putting up runs but which side wakes up first? I have a lean to the Padres in this one.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees (-350)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Undecided
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We don’t know who the Pirates will run out to the mound but Vegas seems to believe it does not matter. I am with them as I think Judge hits #60 tonight while Cortes throws a strong game as the Yankees try to close out the season on a roll. Castro intrigues me from PIT with his power against LHPs.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rodolfo Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) – Game 1
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Dodgers – Michael Grove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Game 1 is expected to be the higher scoring game, according to Vegas. I tend to agree with them in this one as I think the Dodgers can wake up a little bit against Davies while the D’Backs did hit 2 solo HRs against Grove earlier.
ARI 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-335) – Game 2
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Drey Jameson
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. While I don’t think the Dodgers bats are about to be ice cold, they do have a few guys who have cooled off recently. Jameson looked great in his MLB debut but this is a tough spot for him. Anderson has been on the W side of things a TON and is a HUGE favorite. He has been beaten up badly by Marte in the past.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Lodolo has 11 Ks in each of his last 2 starts and 31 over his last 3. He’s been absolutely great at home which is crazy since he can have an HR issue at times and this ballpark is the opposite of a pitcher’s park. Bello has allowed 3 earned or less in 4 straight and he is yet to allow an HR at the MLB level. Both guys are extremely talented with live arms. I much prefer the pitching in Cincinnati today. When is the last time you heard that?
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
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Minnesota Twins (-130) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Twins – Dylan Bundy
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Royals come into this home series, pretty damn cold at the plate. This should be a great spot for the Twins to get back onto the winning wagon as their playoffs hopes are nearly gone. The Twins have a few guys who are swinging it well AND who have hit Greinke really well in previous match-ups. Bundy has had success against KC but he hasn’t solved Salvador just yet.
MIN 5-star plays: Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .085 over the last week.
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays (-155)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I love this pitching match-up as you know how much I love Shane McClanahan. I’ve been calling him a future Cy Young winner since the season began and it could have been this year but it looks like he’s faded a bit in the race. He looked strong in his return from the IL. Javier has big K upside but he’s a HR risk as he loves to pitch up in the zone. If the total ever creeps to 7, I want the under.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .243 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-130) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rangers – Cole Ragans
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The big thing to notice about Ragans is that he allows HRs and he walks a ton of guys. Those combine to create a great GPP storm for an Angels stack tonight. I normally love Sandoval and while I might get myself some shares, I like the way some of the TEX RHBs have been swinging it. This could be a sneaky game stack option tonight.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Mark Mathias, Sam Huff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .244 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-125) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get another game that I would slide into my game stack pile. I think this one is a little more obvious than the LAA-TEX game. We know how dangerous both teams are and this ballpark is inviting for the Home Run. Both sides have guys that I am considering as my dinger call for tonight.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-220) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mariners – Luis Castillo
A’s – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We should be all about the Mariners in this game. I just hope that J-Rod makes his return because it strengthens our SEA stack quite a bit. Castillo should be extremely popular tonight and I can’t argue it. Santana just keeps hitting HRs but overall, he’s still not a very good hitter.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles (-205)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Joey Wentz
Orioles – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Wentz has actually looked solid over his last 3 games and he gets the O’s during a rougher stretch. Voth can certainly do enough to be solid, especially against the weak DET lineup. He just needs to avoid the scorching hot Javy Baez.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox (-170)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The White Sox need to sweep this series something fierce. Cease can cement his Cy Young candidacy with a great performance, in an extremely important spot. He is 2-1 against CLE this season but he hasn’t been overly sharp, allowing 26 baserunners in 17 innings while striking out 16. We do know the Guardians do not strike out a ton but Cease is one of those guys that can strike out just about anybody. I think this game goes over, with the White Sox making a bit of a statement to begin this series.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Riley, Atlanta
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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