Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/17:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Julio Urias
- Chris Bassitt
- Zac Gallen
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Braves – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. On paper, it’s tough to love the Braves against Nola but there is so much history between the two that BvP tells us we should be ok with ATL bats. I like the PHI lineup against an average pitcher in Odorizzi. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game ended up with 5+ HRs.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .259 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
Miami Marlins (-125) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Unlike yesterday, when I had an interest in both SPs (especially Luzardo), this game has zero appeal for me today. I know that we can make a case for a couple of one-off bats below or either SP because of how weak both teams are, but I would rather put my energy into better spots.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lewin Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs (-135)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Jose Urena
Cubs – Hayden Wesneski
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. We get a decent total in Wrigley and I am intrigued by a couple of the CHC LHBs against Urena. This is another game that I don’t really love attacking but we do know that the ball can jump at Wrigley, in the right conditions. I generally avoid COL bats when away from Coors.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Zach McKinstry
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
New York Yankees @ Milwaukee Brewers (-115)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Judge hits number 58 in Milwaukee, this weekend. I actually think that the MIL bats line up well against Taillon, which is really tough for me to admit! Adames is heating up at the play while a couple of MIL bats have had success against Taillon.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
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San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I will be about the Zac Gallen experience today. His ridiculous run of scoreless innings came to an end, albeit in Colorado. I can see Musgrove struggling against a couple of ARI bats as a few of them have had success against him. Soto has an HR against Gallen.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets (-320)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Bryse Wilson
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get a game that should be very one-sided. Bassitt is going to be popular as a massive favorite with a PIT IRT that is minuscule. I will be looking to the Mets bats to stay somewhat hot against Wilson.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Giants – Undecided
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Vegas information, along with the SF SP announcement. At this point, I don’t really care what SF does at pitcher. I will be all about the LAD lineup in this one. Urias is an under-the-radar NL Cy Young guy who gets a great match-up against a struggling lineup that he has had success against.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Thairo Estrada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals – Game 1
Pitchers:
Reds – Mike Minor
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The Reds have hit Hudson really well this season while we KNOW that the Cardinals can absolutely dominate LHPs. I am looking for Pujols to hit yet another HR today.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-250) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Cardinals – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I really think this match-up could play to the under. I expect Greene to be amped up to be making his return and his big-time fastball could come in handy. We know that Greene can have an HR issue which makes it a dangerous match-up for him thanks to the RH power that STL has.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox (-160)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The total tells me want bats but the bats tell me that we should be considering the SPs in this game. I call that a serious conundrum. There just aren’t enough bats that excite me in this game. Both sides have some bad recent trends from a hitting standpoint.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .079 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-25)
Pitchers:
A’s – Cole Irvin
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. It looks like Yordan has caught fire again and I love watching him hit when he’s rolling at the plate. I am debating him as my Dinger call but it kind of sucks since he hit 3 last night. Urquidy should end up on our short list of pitchers today thanks to the elite level match-up.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rays – Shawn Armstrong
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. It looks like the Rays will go their patented bullpen route. We need to pay attention to updates on projected long relievers. The game has such a low total but both sides have a few guys either swinging it well or with strong BvP history. I like the top of the TEX lineup as a sneaky stack.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .262 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. If you look below, you see a bunch of TOR RHBs and you might ask yourself why so many? Well, they have all had success against Bradish but mainly it’s because Bradish allows a lot of power to RHBs. Berrios can be elite or he could give up 3 HRs in 4 innings of work today.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-115) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I love the pitching match-up in this one so I won’t be stacking this game in any way. Kirby offers plenty of upsides and we know how great Ohtani can be on the mound. Trout just keeps hitting HRs and he does have one against Kirby so far.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .271 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-155) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I want to attack both pitchers for GPP purposes but I can see both pitchers putting up GPP winning scores. I love E-Rod’s upside but he’s capable of getting absolutely blown up. Cueto has a strong match-up but he’s still Johnny Cueto and isn’t overly dominant.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians (-190) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Twins – Louie Varland
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I can see one-offs having a strong game but I generally don’t want to pick on Bieber. Varland looked great in his debut against the Yankees and I want to see what he’s capable of in an important match-up.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians (-130) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Twins – Josh Winder
Guardians – Konn0r Pilkington
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is definitely the game we would target in this doubleheader. I expect the Twins to come out focused in this one while Winder has shown an ability to dominate for stretches.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Yordan Alvarez, Houston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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