Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 9/11:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Aaron Nola
- Brandon Woodruff
- Shane Bieber
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Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The PHI bats have definitely picked it up of late and a few of them have hit Sanchez really well in their careers. I wouldn’t be shocked by a 3 HR game from PHI. Nola hasn’t been as sharp at home in 2022 but this feels like a great spot for a vintage home start from him.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over the last week.
New York Mets (-145) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I don’t want to attack this one with much at this point. Luzardo has been pretty strong this season and the Mets haven’t had success against him. Walker should be in a great spot but he hasn’t exactly been a dominant pitcher over his last few starts.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (EVEN) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Giants – John Brebbia
Cubs – Wade Miley
Rundown:
Waiting on a total for the game in Wrigley (which generally means we have potential wind issues). I will be honest, this is an extremely unappealing Sunday Night Baseball game. Draftkings seems to believe that Brebbie will be followed by Shelby Miller, which would probably put me on the Cubs’ side. Villar has been hitting HRs for the Giants and makes sense.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, David Villar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-120)
Pitchers:
Rays – Luis Patino
Yankees – Domingo German
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both of the SPs in this one tend to get hit harder by RHBs and that plays into the Yankees lineup a bit more than the Rays. German hasn’t been terrible against TB but he hasn’t been great either. I thought he had more K ability but he hasn’t really shown it off this season.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Miguel Andujar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Andrew Heaney
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We know how dangerous the Dodgers are and I can guarantee you that I was not shocked when I realized they have a bunch of guys who have hit Musgrove extremely well. Machado did damage last night and he has a couple of career HRs against Heaney already.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .254 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-210) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jose Quintana
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas total. Quintana should offer a decent amount of safety but he may not provide us a big upside. Keller is very much capable of putting together a strong performance and I wouldn’t be shocked if he did today. With that being said, this game is about the STL bats for me.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-170) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 10.5. Gallen has not allowed a run since August 2nd. His streak is definitely going to be put to the test in Coors today. The obvious here is to be ALL over the D’Backs since they are the side that doesn’t have to face the dominance that has been Zac Gallen. Walker has hit Feltner hard while Varsho has roughly 76 HRs over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Michael Toglia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .253 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-292)
Pitchers:
Reds – Justin Dunn
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Dunn has allowed 9 HRs in 28 innings of work at the Major League level this season. Woodruff has allowed 4 HRs in 10 innings against CIN this season but he does have 18 Ks against them. Most of the MIL lineup has been below average for a while but I think we could see a big game from an LHB or two.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: TJ Friedl
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
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Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-160)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There are a handful of DET bats who have been swinging a hot stick lately and maybe today is the time we make a dart throw stack of the Tigers. Singer has had pretty good success against the DET roster while the KC lineup has NOT had much success against Alexander.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kerry Carpenter, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael A Taylor, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-250)
Pitchers:
Angels – Tucker Davidson
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Mike Trout has had an ISO of .833 over the last week. Yeah, that number is pretty freaking impressive as he navigates the rest of the season with a “career-threatening back injury” (not my words). While the HOU lineup has had a rough go of it lately, they are massive favorites and should show some life against Davidson.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Luis Rengifo, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .241 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-125) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Trevor Richards
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am interested in seeing what the Blue Jays plan to do at pitcher. Richards definitely isn’t stretched out at this point. There are a handful of TOR bats that have had success against Perez or are swinging it decently well. Bichette is the hottest hitter in baseball as he has 10 extra-base hits over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Danny Jansen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles (-130)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I do think that we see BOS stay on the hotter side from an offensive standpoint. Bradish can struggle mightily with RHBs while he also hasn’t been very good at home. Hill is one of those guys that shocks us when we are expecting domination against him.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-130) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Braves – Jake Odorizzi
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really think that we see double-digit runs on the scoreboard in this game. I can see Odorizzi allowing 4-5 in 4 innings while Marco could get roughed up early and often by the dangerous ATL lineup. Olson has crushed him for 6 HRs in 39 ABs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Michael Harris, Vaughn Grissom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-165) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
A’s – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Vegas is giving Irvin a TON of respect because the CWS bats have been absolutely rolling this series. Brown has an HR against Cueto and he has hit a bunch of them over the last week. It’s really hard to not think that this one is dominated by the White Sox.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-160) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Twins – Josh Winder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I want to believe that Winder can showcase his early season magic but the Guardians don’t K a lot and they walk. That’s a tough combination for pitchers to have to deal with. The big thing is that they also don’t hit a ton of HRs and Winder did shut them down earlier this season. Bieber should be fairly popular as I think he offers a great floor-ceiling combination in this match-up.
CLE 5-star plays: Josh Naylor
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Freddie Freeman, LA Dodgers
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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