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MLB DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections Today Sept. 25th | Fanduel Draftkings

Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 9/25:

Sep 24, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Jean Segura (2) jumps to avoid a ball hit by Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Bryson Stott (not pictured) during the seventh inning of the game against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves won with a score of 6-3. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:

Atlanta Braves (-126) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+108)

Braves – 4.5 IRT

Phillies – 4.2 IRT

Rundown:

We’ll kick the day off with Charlie Morton and the Braves continuing a series with the Phillies who are fighting to stay in that last wild card spot in the NL. Morton has been pretty solid as of late with at least 15.5 DraftKings points in three of his last four games but is averaging just 12.8 DraftKings points per game in four starts against the Phillies this season. He’s not my favorite option on the slate simply due to the matchup, but he does have a 28.7% strikeout rate on the season. Philadelphia will send Kyle Gibson to the mound in a difficult matchup as well and is a guy who doesn’t really have the upside to outweigh the risk in this matchup, he won’t be in my pitching pool in this one.

ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson

4-star plays: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson

GPP Note: The Braves look like a nice stack on this slate.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins

GPP Note: The Phillies would be more of a mini-stack simply due to Morton being a solid pitcher.


Houston Astros (-166) @ Baltimore Orioles (+140)

Implied Run Totals:

Astros – 4.6 IRT

Orioles – 3.6 IRT

Rundown:

Starting with the Astros who will send Cristian Javier to the mound in a matchup with the Orioles who ended Valdez’s quality start streak last night. Javier has been good as well with at least 37 FanDuel points in three straight games and is a guy I think we can get to here… it is concerning looking at that box score from yesterday, but obviously, we look for things to regress back to normal. Austin Voth will start for the Orioles in a tough spot against the Astros. I don’t see myself getting to Voth here and getting cute at pitcher, we can safely exclude him.

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker

4-star plays: Alex Bregman

GPP Note: I like going right back to the Astros in this one after a nice night last night.

BAL 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson

GPP Note: I don’t want to stack against Javier.

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Toronto Blue Jays (+120) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140)

Implied Run Totals:

Blue Jays – 3.1 IRT

Rays – 3.6 IRT

Rundown:

Ross Stripling will start for the Blue Jays against the Rays who will send Shane McClanahan to the mound, so naturally, Stripling and the Jays will come in as the underdogs. Stripling is coming off of a rough start last time out against the Phillies but had at least 15 DraftKings points in his previous four starts. I think you can make a case for him as an SP2 at this price tag if you need to save some money. As mentioned, McClanahan will go for the Rays and is another guy coming off of a rocky start. He has an elite 31.7% strikeout rate on the season and is averaging 29.1 DraftKings points per game in two starts against the Jays on the season, he’s a great SP1 on this slate.

TOR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

GPP Note: Just one-offs for me against McClanahan.

TBR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena

GPP Note: This lineup is just soooo ugly right now, I don’t see myself stacking this team.

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Chicago Cubs (+100) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-120)

Implied Run Totals:

Cubs – 4.0 IRT

Pirates – 4.2 IRT

Rundown:

The Cubs will send Adrian Sampson to the mound in a nice matchup against this Pirates team in a pitcher’s ballpark. Sampson actually has a quality start in three straight games but the strikeout upside is very minimal with just a 16.6% strikeout rate on the season, I don’t see a need to get to him on this slate. Luis Ortiz will get the start for the Pirates and I had thought this was the same gas can as the Giants have in their system, but it turns out this guy is the good Luis Oritz! He has at least 27 FanDuel points in both starts on the season and has some legit strikeout upside with a 9.72 k/9 throughout the Pirates organization this season. He makes sense as a cheaper SP2 option in tournaments.

CHC 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Ian Happ, Franmil Reyes, Zach McKinstry

GPP Note: I don’t want to stack this Cubs lineup in a big ballpark.

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: Same story here, this lineup isn’t good enough for me to want to stack in Pittsburgh.


Milwaukee Brewers (-152) @ Cincinnati Reds (+130)

Implied Run Totals:

Brewers – 4.5 IRT

Reds – 3.7 IRT

Rundown:

The Brewers will get Freddy Peralta back in this one as he’s been on the IL since early September. In the past, the Brewers have been very careful with bringing Peralta back, so I would not expect a full start for him and think he probably goes around three or four innings even if he’s pitching well. For that reason, I don’t think we can confidently go to him as a pitching option on this slate. The Reds will send Nick Lodolo to the mound and is a guy that has pitched really well against the Brewers this season averaging 21.8 DraftKings points per game in two starts against them. The Brewers stink against opposing left-handed pitching, so Lodolo is a nice option in all formats here.

MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames

4-star plays: Mike Brosseau, Christian Yelich

GPP Note: More of a mini-stack team if you’re not interested in Lodolo.

CIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Jonathan India

GPP Note: This lineup isn’t good enough for me to want to stack here.


Washington Nationals (+155) @ Miami Marlins (-182)

Implied Run Totals:

Nationals – 3.3 IRT

Marlins – 4.4 IRT

Rundown:

Anibal Sanchez will get the start for the Nationals in a great matchup with the Marlins in a pitcher’s ballpark. Sanchez has his starts where he pitches well enough to set the Nationals up for a win, but with just a 15.2% strikeout rate on the season, he doesn’t have the upside that I’m looking for to roster in DFS. The Marlins will send Edward Cabrera to the mound in a great matchup as well against a weak Nats team. Cabrera is a guy I do like and has a 25.3% strikeout rate on the season while this Nats team comes in with just a 3.3 implied run total, he’s a great option in all formats on this slate.

WAS 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Joey Meneses

GPP Note: This lineup stinks and Cabrera is very solid.

MIA 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jon Berti, Garrett Cooper

GPP Note: Same deal here, this lineup just isn’t very good.

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Los Angeles Angels (-110) @ Minnesota Twins (-107)

Implied Run Totals:

Angels – 4.1 IRT

Twins – 4.1 IRT

Rundown:

The Angels will send Jose Suarez to the mound in a decent enough matchup against this banged-up Twins lineup. I’m not convinced Suarez is all that great and has been held under 10 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That being said, he does have a 22% strikeout rate on the season and makes sense as a tournament option in this price range. Minnesota will start Dylan Bundy and he’s a pretty quick exclusion for me even in a good matchup with this strikeout-happy Angels team. He has just a 16% strikeout rate and is no stranger to giving up home runs.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani

4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo

GPP Note: I think we can make a case for an Angels stack here as long as we can find a way to get both Trout and Ohtani in that stack.

MIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Jose Miranda, Carlos Correa, Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez

GPP Note: The Twins would be more of a secondary stack or a mini-stack team for me against Suarez.


Seattle Mariners (-186) @ Kansas City Royals (+155)

Implied Run Totals:

Mariners – 4.4 IRT

Royals – 3.3 IRT

Rundown:

Luis Castillo will get the start for the Mariners after signing a massive extension to stick with the team yesterday. He gets a great matchup against this Royals team that comes in with just a 3.3 implied run total. He had a rough start last time out but does have a 27.1% strikeout rate on the season and as I mentioned, I love the matchup in this one, he’s a great option in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel. We have some Castillo vs. Castillo action here as Max Castillo gets the start for the Royals. It seems like he’s finally stretched out but I want to see it from him before I go back to him against a good enough Mariners lineup. There really isn’t anything in his minor league numbers that stands out to me.

SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Ty France

4-star plays: JP Crawford, Carlos Santana, Jarred Kelenic

GPP Note: This lineup is so much different with Julio Rodriguez not in it, but I think they look solid against Castillo here.

KCR 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez

GPP Note: I don’t plan to stack against Luis Castillo in this one.


Detroit Tigers (+220) @ Chicago White Sox (-265)

Implied Run Totals:

Tigers – 3.1 IRT

White Sox – 5.1 IRT

Rundown:

The Tigers will continue their series with the White Sox as they send Tyler Alexander to the mound in this one. He’s actually coming off of a really nice start against the Orioles where he went seven innings of no-run ball. That being said, he has an xERA of 5.26 on the season and this White Sox lineup is good enough to do some damage, he’s not a guy I want in my player pool on this slate. Speaking of Chicago, they’ll send Dylan Cease to the mound who looks like one of the better pitching options on the slate. He’s cooled down a bit over his last two starts but has at least 46 FanDuel points in three starts before that. He has a 31.1% strikeout rate on the season and this Tigers team is not good.

DET 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Javier Baez

GPP Note: I don’t want to stack against Cease with this Tigers lineup.

CHW 5-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez

4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Vaughn, AJ Pollock

GPP Note: I think the White Sox are a top stack on this slate.


Cleveland Guardians (-141) @ Texas Rangers (+120)

Implied Run Totals:

Guardians – 4.4 IRT

Rangers – 3.8 IRT

Rundown:

We’ll round out the slate with Aaron Civale taking the mound for the Guardians as they continue their series with the Rangers. I’ve never really thought Civale was a good pitcher and has an ERA over five on the season. He does have a 22.4% strikeout rate on the season, so there is at least a little upside here… he’d be a deep GPP flyer at best for me. The Rangers will send Cole Ragans to the mound and is a guy who will be a very quick exclusion as well for me in this one. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season and doesn’t miss many bats.

CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez

GPP Note: I have no issue with the Guardians on this slate.

TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia

GPP Note: I don’t mind stacking against Civale here as well.


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