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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 9/15:
Sep 14, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the second inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Chicago White Sox (-155) @ Cleveland Guardians (+135)
Rundown:
We’ll kick the day off with two early games that aren’t on the main slate. Lance Lynn will get the start for the White Sox in a fine matchup with the Guardians. Lynn has been really good as of late with at least 23.9 DraftKings points in four straight games and just feels too cheap here. He has a 26.4% strikeout rate on the season as well, he’s a great play on the early slate or the all-day slate if you’re playing it. The Guardians will send Hunter Gaddis to the mound who is coming off his MLB debut last time out which didn’t go too well against the Astros. I think we can safely avoid him again here and look at these Chicago bats.
CHW 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: The White Sox are certainly in play on the early slate.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: I’ll have a good amount of Lance Lynn on the other side of this one.
Tampa Bay Rays (+125) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-143)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out these early games as Shane McClanahan returns from the IL to take on the Blue Jays in this one. I can’t imagine the Rays want to push him all that much so I would expect he’s on some sort of pitch count in this one in his first game back. That said, he does have a 32.5% strikeout rate on the season if you do want to take a flyer on him. I’d rather go to Kevin Gausman who is getting the start for the Jays on the other side of this one. He has at least 22.8 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and is averaging 23.3 DraftKings points per start in three starts against the Rays, he’s a great option in all formats as well.
TBR 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Due to the size of the slate there will be some bats I like here, but I still don’t want to stack against Gausman.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Same deal here, generally I wouldn’t target against McClanahan, but I don’t think he’ll go too far in this game and we can find some opportunities here.
Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Oakland Athletics (+275) @ Houston Astros (-345)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Onto the main slate where James Kaprielian will get the start in a tough matchup with this Houston team on the road. Kaprielian hasn’t been good this season and with just a 15.9% strikeout rate, he won’t be a guy I want to target a good lineup with. Lance McCullers will get the start on the other side of this one and is a guy I will want to get some exposure to due to the matchup. McCullers has been good lately and is giving you a really nice floor at the very least. He made his debut this season against the A’s and dropped 43 FanDuel points on them, so he’s a guy I’ll go right back to here on both DraftKings and FanDuel due to the floor/ceiling potential.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: McCullers is a high-end pitching option on this slate and this lineup is not good.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Love the Astros here against Kaprielian and this A’s bullpen.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) @ New York Mets (-275)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Pirates will send JT Brubaker to the mound in a tough matchup with this Mets lineup. Brubaker doesn’t give me enough upside to want to target him against a good lineup like the Mets. I do like getting to the other side of this one with Carlos Carrasco, however. He’s coming off a nice start last time out against the Marlins but is noteworthy that he hasn’t gone over 75 pitches in three straight starts. He has a 23.3% strikeout rate on the season though, and with how bad this Pirates lineup is, he makes a ton of sense in all formats on DraftKings and FanDuel.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Just one-offs here against Carrasco.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: I like going right back to the Mets in a good matchup against Brubaker.
Kansas City Royals (+145) @ Minnesota Twins (-170)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Royals will send Daniel Lynch to the mound against this Twins lineup that still just doesn’t look right with Luis Arraez and Byron Buxton out of it. Lynch is not a guy I’ll want to get to here as he carries a 5.14 ERA on the season and this Twins lineup still has enough firepower to take advantage of a weak lefty. Dylan Bundy will get the start for the Twins after Gray and Ryan excelled in back-to-back days in this matchup. However, I don’t think I want to go here for a third straight day simply because I don’t think Bundy is that good. If you’re desperate and you need a cheap SP2, I guess you can make a case for him but he has just a 16.3% strikeout rate on the season.
KCR 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr.
GPP Note: I like the top of this lineup quite a bit which makes a mini-stack in play, the bottom is too ugly for me to want to full-stack them.
MIN 5-star plays: Jose Miranda, Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: This lineup just looks so different without Buxton in there, but Lynch is not good, so we can go right back to them here.
Cincinnati Reds (+235) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-278)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Reds will head into St. Louis to take on the Cardinals as they send Chase Anderson to the mound. Anderson will be a pretty quick exclude from my player pool due to his production in a small sample size this season. He has a 9.00 ERA and the Cardinals will take advantage of that in a hurry. Miles Mikolas will start for the Cardinals and is a guy that looks like a great option in all formats on DraftKings and FanDuel. He has some nice win equity as they come in as -278 favorites against a bad Reds lineup. He’s been somewhat volatile as of late, but the matchup is too good to ignore on a short slate.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jake Fraley, Aristides Aquino
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs from the Reds for me.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar
GPP Note: Fire up any and all Cardinals, they’re the top stack on the slate for me.
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San Diego Padres (-175) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+145)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with Sean Manaea taking the mound in a matchup with this Diamondbacks team. Manaea is having a greatly disappointing season but still has a 23.7% strikeout rate on the season if you want to take a shot at him in tournaments. That being said, this Dbacks lineup is very sneaky to me and I like the upside they bring with all their young talent so Manaea likely won’t be a guy I get to with much consistency here. Then the Dbacks will start Drey Jameson who has struggled in the minors this season, so likely a guy I’m not going to get to against a Padres lineup. That being said, he’s pitching in the Coors Field of the Pacific Coast League which doesn’t help, but still, I won’t be getting to him here.
SDP 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: The Padres are right there with the Cardinals as a top stack on this slate.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker, Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Alek Thomas, Emmanuel Rivera
GPP Note: I like the Dbacks as a secondary stack a good deal, many people won’t be on them due to the name recognition of Sean Manaea.
