10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Joe Flacco – 2% – 7.4 DK pts 

Austin Ekeler – 3% –  13.3 DK pts

Drake London – 8% – 14.4 DK pts

Christian Kirk – 6% – 19.2 DK pts  

Jared Goff – 7% – 14.4 DK pts

Terry McLaurin – 1.53%  – 19.2 DK pts 

Chris Olave – 6.2% – 26.7 Dk pts 

D’Andre Swift – 10.27% – 7.6 DK pts (injured mid game)

Gerald Everett – 2.16% – 4.5 DK pts

New Orleans Saints – 1.7% – 4 DK pts

 

Well things got a little better for us this week and we had big days from Christian Kirk, Chris Olave, and Terry McLaurin! The Chargers stunk though and after a hot start, the Vikings defense played the Lions tough in the second half and D’Andre Swift going down with an injury didn’t help either.  So far what we’ve seen this season in the milly maker winners is that paying up for a solid QB seems to be the best strategy, along with paying down at RB and having at least one punt WR, so that will be our focus this week and we hopefully identify a few more guys that are in the milly maker winning lineup again this week!

Speaking of Milly Maker winners, HUGE shoutout to my boy RapidFireXD  for taking down the MILLY ON DRAFTKINGS Week 1!!!

UNREAL WIN and I couldn’t be happier for him and the entire DFS Army Community who just crushed in week 1!

RapidFireXD really took the ‘First or Last I Ain’t Here to Min Cash’ motto to heart!

Want to be the next DFS Army Millionaire? Join Today and use code NFL2022 for 20% off a VIP Membership!!

 

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Lamar Jackson QB Baltimore Ravens

Ownership: DK 7.3%/FD 10.18%

Salary: DK $8300/FD $8800

Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the league right now. And that is not a stretch. Statistically no one isn’t close. Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets aren’t necessarily world beaters on defense, but what he has done so far this season is unprecedented, even for him. Has gone over 100 yards rushing in back to back games, rushed in for a TD in back to back games and oh yeah, he’s thrown for 10 TD’s too. Thats insane.

Buffalo’s defense is solid even as they deal with injuries, but seriously, Lamar is on another level right now. If we see guys who are limited at practice right now like Jordan Poyer end up being ruled out on Sunday, then we have potential for an absolute massive game for Lamar.

Currently projected at around 7%/10% on both sites and I’ll have at least 30% ownership in my MME. He’s my favorite Single Entry QB too. Everyone is scared of the banged up Bills defense and not smashing Lamar here and I think that’s a mistake. You can play him with Mark Andrews which is a really expensive QB+1 and run it back with Stefon Diggs to make it even more expensive, but given what Lamar has been doing with his legs I actually don’t think you need the Andrews pairing. I prefer a Lamar + 1 or even 2 run backs from the Bills. Diggs will be popular so I don’t mind going to Isaiah McKenzie and a hopefully healthy Gabriel Davis. 

Geno Smith QB Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: DK 5.2%/FD 4.1%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6600

Take a second and clean up your desk. I know you probably just spit out your drink seeing Geno Freaking Smith listed here but hear me out!

Smith has been sneaky good the last two weeks and he’s been hucking it up, a ton. Increasing his pass attempts from 28 in week 1 to 30 in week 2 to 44 last week against the Falcons, a game in which he threw for 325 yards and 2 TD passes. Now gets to go up against the Lions in a dome. Was third in air yards for the week which is really promising, especially given who he has for receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, it makes me want to stack this game up six ways from Sunday.

Maybe the most important thing that the Seahawks and Smith did last week was get away from these short little passes to Metcalf and let him stretch the field a bit. This offense with both of those guys getting away from the line of scrimmage and the box is much better than the dink and dump they were using in weeks 1 and 2. DK saw his aDOT (average depth of target) go from 4.4 in week 1 to 8.1 in week 2 and now up to 12.5 in week 3. Not only is that good for this offense, it’s good for fantasy production.

I think theres potential for Smith to have a QB1 game here, the big question though is who we pair him with. Traditionally in the past we’ve seen only one of the Seahawks WR’s go off per game. I prefer Metcalf just because his TD potential is better, but Lockett’s matchup with Jeff Okudah in the slot is pretty sexy. We saw K.J. Osborn go off on him last week and Lockett is a MUCH better receiver.

Coming back from the Lions I don’t mind going with chalk Jamaal Williams or a bounce back game for Amon Ra St. Brown. Don’t sleep on my boy D.J. Chark either.

Dameon Pierce RB Houston Texans

Ownership: DK 6.6%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5600/FD $6000

Jamaal Williams will be the overwhelming chalk RB this week on both sites, but what you do with the remaining spot(s) in your lineup is likely to determine where you end up in a GPP. Pierce is going to be that guy a majority of my lineups this week and let me tell you why.

First off, some of the Dame Pierce haters out there are saying that his schedule is going to get increasingly difficult coming up and he will likely cede more work to the corpse of Rex Burkhead. Let’s start with the schedule, while it’s true that over the next 4 or 5 weeks the Texans Opponenets are better, that doesn’t start this week which is what we really care about. The Texans are at home against a bruised and battered Los Angeles Chargers in a game that I think they are absolutely live to cover the 5.5 point spread. The Chargers will be without super star Nick Bosa among others and I think this Texans team has some legitimate potential offensively and will keep this close through out, if not be leading at some point. My best projection is that Pierce sees a similar workload to what he did against the Bears in a potentially very similar matchup. 18-20 carries, 3-4 targets, probably needs a TD to 3x the salary here and is super cheap.

As far as Rex Burkhead goes, it’s true that he is getting the majority of the passing down/2 minute work but I think we see Pierce start to cut into that, and soon. Pierce was a legitimately good pass catching back in college and projects as a 3 down workhorse. Burkhead is a journeyman veteran who has dealt with injuries through his career. I just don’t see that split staying what it is all year long and even if it does, there’s a clear path for Pierce to get there in a competitive game, which this likely is. The Jags pounded the ball all day on the Chargers and I expect more of the same from the Texans as they try to control the clock, even if they are down a TD. Love Pierce this week.

Najee Harris RB Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: DK 8.5%/FD 12.2%

Salary: DK $6700/FD $7700

Najee Harris is going to explode for a massive score one of these weeks and I think he has as good of a chance as anyone this week in a solid matchup against the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS! (I have to write this, it’s in my contract with Geek that anytime I write about the Jets I need to do the chant at least once in the article. Sometimes it sucks to work for a Jets fanboy).

Both teams have mediocre defensive lines that you can run on (which is why I have the next guy in my sheet below) and while Jaylen Warren has cut into his touches a bit (80/20 split last week) I still think that Harris is a smash play without a real QB under center.

Hasn’t shown the upside we know he can with multiple TD’s yet but I do think that is coming here and our ceiling projection for him is a whopping 27.5 DK points, which is 5th best on the slate, yet Harris is the 8th highest priced.

Potentially a better FD play just given his TD prop but I think we see a few more dump offs or designed RB passes plays against the Jets this week given the success that Cincinnati doing that against them last week and that would make Harris a smash play on DK.

Breece Hall RB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $5400/FD $6300

It is Breece Hall’s time to shine. Finally outsnapped Michael Carter last week and continues to get a ton of work in the passing game. Going up against a banged up Pittsburgh defense that’s been run all over, especially by pass catching back which Hall is.

Hall has seen target counts of 11-1-9 in his three games so far and with Zack Wilson coming back under center, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the number this week be closer to what it was in weeks 1 and 3 than week 2 as he will want to get the ball out quickly. That sort of target share is similar to what we would see in a WR1, yet we are getting it at RB and gives him a sneaky good floor with a massive ceiling.

Carter being there obviously limits that ceiling a bit but as Hall gets more comfortable one would assume that Robert Saleh and the Jets coaching staff start to give him more 3 down work, and that could happen as early as this week.

Weirdly we have Carter being higher owned, but Hall is the guy to own this offense and I love a low owned cheap RB with upside in showdown and we’ve seen that be the path to success in the Milly Maker so far this season.

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Allen Lazard WR Green Bay Packers

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 3.2%

Salary: DK $6200/FD $6000

I really, really like Lazard to smash this week. Dealing with a bit of ankle injury but didn’t stop him last week as he played on 90% of the snaps. Everyone’s going to chase the Romeo Doubs game from last week but lets not forget that Allen Lazard is a beast. He’s 6’4 and plays almost 40% of his snaps in the slot! He has an EIGHT INCH advantage on Pats slot DB Myles Bryant. Lazard is sitting on a huge game here and no one is talking about him. Yeah this Pats defense is good but this is still Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, they’ve started slow but will get it cranked up. I think Lazard has as good of a chance at a 2 TD game as anyone and will likely be sub 1% on DK in a home game where they are favored by 9. I think Hoyer has a decent chance to keep this close, but I don’t really like any of the run it back options here. SO CHEAP ON FD!

Mack Hollins WR Las Vegas Raiders

Ownership: DK 2.5%/FD 2.59%

Salary: DK $4200/FD $5500

Mack Hollins went OFF last week against the Titans. 11 targets, 8 catches, 158 yards, 1 TD. Was already an integral piece of this offense before Hunter Renfrow went down and now is even more involved.

The matchup is difficult but last week was not an anomaly and while he won’t likely have a ceiling game again I think 20 DK points is absolutely in the realm of possibility. The presence of Davante Adams in this offense, opens up so much for the other receivers and Hollins clearly has a connection with QB Derek Carr. 

The Raiders are -2.5 point favorites at home in a 45.5 total game which is a prime environment for a receiver. Oh and he’s going to be massively underowned while being super cheap. Makes so much in your lineups work.

Isaiah McKenzie WR Buffalo Bills

Ownership: DK 3.5%/FD 1.84%

Salary: DK $5100/FD $5900

Stefon Diggs is likely to be the highest owned WR on the slate. That makes the other three receivers in this offense a massive leverage opportunity for GPP. Mckenzie is still splitting time with Jamison Crowder in the slot but is receiving far more targets and is clearly in the #3. The Ravens secondary is a bit beat up but Marlon Humphrey played last week and my guess (and the Ravens beat writers) is that they stick him on Diggs whenever they can. That opens up McKenzie to be on someone else in the slot, likely their Nickel DB which is a PRIME matchup for him to exploit.

Super cheap and an intriguing way to get access to this game in a prime leverage spot. Love the upside.

George Pickens WR Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: DK 1.5%/FD 3.5%

Salary: DK $3800/FD $5800

I know I’m pretty high on Najee in this offense, but in our theme of getting cheap WR’s, George Pickens just makes way too much sense here. Had a season high 8 targets and continues to get more involvement in this offense.

The guy is a beast who is a matchup nightmare and his price is about 5k to cheap. There are other good options a little more expensive like Jahan Dotson and Richie James Jr. but Pickens is the best sub 4k option on DK and while this Jets secondary is improved they are still beatable.

Tennessee Titans DST (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Ownership: DK 4%/FD 6.1%

Salary: DK $3500/FD $4300

Matt Ryan has 7 fumbles this year. SEVEN. I feel like that’s all I really need to write here. He’s only lost two but the potential is there for a big day for this Titans defense. Has 4 interceptions as well. Turnovers lead to points for the defense and that’s what we’re looking for here in a defense.

 

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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