Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a big 14-game main slate today, complete with a handful of late-night games and a trip to Coors Field. There’s even a double-header with some showdown games that don’t show up on the main slates, if you’re into those sort of things. Anyway, there’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
As usual, a big slate brings a nice big variety in pitching options. We have a handful of pitchers with nice low carnage ratings, a lot in the middle, and a few down low that look like they may only last an inning or two. We have quite a few with higher allowed ISO, so we could see a lot of one-offs or mini-stacks being viable to go along with the full stacks. As always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the Blue Jays and Orioles, with Manoah and Bradish on the mound. There’s a decent chance at some rain here, so perhaps a delay, but I don’t know that we’ll see this one get postponed. Do keep an eye on the weather just in case, as there are some useful bats here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Chapman/Merrifield
GPP note – Bradish has been tough on righties, so I could see him slowing these guys down for 4-5 innings. He’s much worse against lefties, so be sure to look at any that are starting.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Rutschman/Santander, Mateo
GPP note – On paper Manoah is in the same boat as Bradish: tough on righties, though a little soft to lefties. Don’t be afraid to grab a few bats here to scatter around with your full stacks.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we have Garrett and the Marlins taking on Wheeler and the Phillies. A 7.5 total, Vegas doesn’t think we’ll see a ton of action here, and I tend to agree. I think we’ll go the under here, provided they play; there are some weather concerns here as well, so keep an eye on that.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – none
GPP note – Not much to love here, especially not with a sub-3.0 IRT.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Realmuto/Hoskins, Bohm/Schwarber
GPP note – Vegas has some love for these guys, but I think Garrett can hold them down. If you do go here, I would stick to small/medium-sized stacks. Righties get the power advantage, but he’s not allowing a ton of it.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
We have some more weather concerns at our next game too, this one between Minor and the Reds and Carrasco and the Mets. The Mets are sure to be popular here, so this might be the most important game of these three to keep tabs on.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Votto, India
GPP note – A tough spot for these guys, Carrasco’s strikeout rate isn’t as high as some of the other pitchers, so you could still try a bat or two against him. His statcast numbers are about equal on each side, so batter hand doesn’t matter a whole lot here.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 4 star plays – Marte, Nimmo/Escobar
GPP note – Solid spot for the righties here, so be sure to attack him from the traditional side. Consider using some lefties too though, as they’ll get some LvR matchups later once the bullpen comes in (and should carry a little less ownership).
Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers
Bieber and the Guardians will take on Alexander and the Tigers next. There are no weather concerns here, but we do have a mild 7.5 total, so we might not get a whole lot from this one anyway (outside of using Bieber, of course).
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Rosario, Hedges
GPP note – Alexander is allowing some decent xwOBA to both sides and doesn’t get a whole lot of strikeouts. Their sub-4.5 IRT should help keep ownership down compared to other offenses, so this could be a decent place to pivot to.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Candelario, Baez
GPP note – Another offense in a bad spot, I can’t recommend much here outside of contrarian stacks.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Our next matchup features Morton and the Braves set to take on Hill and the Red Sox. Vegas gives us a healthy 9.5 total for this one, and I could certainly see that coming to fruition. The Braves will see more ownership, but there are some Boston bats that could do some damage, too.
Braves 5 star plays – Riley
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Harris/Contreras
GPP note – This is a solid spot for the righties, so be sure to roll out at least some medium-sized stacks against Hill. Try to include a lefty or two though, like Harris or Olson.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Devers/Hosmer, Verdugo/Duran
GPP note – Not a great spot, as Morton has been pretty strict and gets a fair share of strikeouts, but he does allow some power to lefties and this offense does have a few solid choices there.
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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Espino and the Nationals will take on Stroman and the Cubs next, this one with a modest 8.0 total. While I don’t know that the game will see the over, I think the Cubs can hit theirs, as they’re in a pretty good spot here. It’s too bad the wind won’t be blowing out, but at least it won’t be too strong coming in.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Voit/Cruz, Y Hernandez/Garcia
GPP note – Stroman has been holding his own and isn’t showing any glaring weaknesses right now, so perhaps large stacks aren’t the ticket here. A few of these bats are hitting righties for power though, so you could try some small/medium-sized stacks.
Cubs 5 star plays – Contreras
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Wison, Hoerner/Happ
GPP note – A solid spot for these bats, Espino is allowing all sorts of power and contact to both sides of the plate and has a pretty low strikeout rate. Stacks of any size are in play here.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Next up we have Perez and the Rangers taking on Urquidy and the Astros. We get a 7.5 total for this one, which feels a little lower than I was expecting, but we’ll see how it goes. While I don’t think either team will go off the rails and score double-digits, I do think we’ll get a handful of bats that flourish, so don’t let the low total scare you away from some exposure.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Seager, Garcia/Lowe/Heim
GPP note – A below-average spot for these guys, though Urquidy is allowing some power to righties, so you could try a few RHBs against him.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Alvarez, Bregman/Pena
GPP note – Perez gets his strikeouts but is allowing good power to righties, so go with some traditional splits here. Lean towards those with lower strikeout rates here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers
Moving on, our next game will be between Yacabonis/Yarbrough and the Rays facing Woodruff and the Brewers. We get an 8.0 total here, mostly thanks to the Brewers’ matchup, as there probably won’t be a ton coming from the Rays. Well, maybe some strikeouts, but nothing useful from the offense for us.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Arozarena, Peralta/Lowe
GPP note – Bad spot for these guys, so contrarian stacks only.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, McCutchen/Tellez/Adames, Taylor
GPP note – Yarbrough should come in after 1-2 innings, so consider taking bats against him instead of Yacabonis (who will probably just give it up to whoever he faces anyway). In other words, don’t be afraid to go with what looks to be RvR bats here, as they’ll turn into RvL soon enough.
St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies
We get our Coors game next, this one between the Cardinals and Rockies. Mikolas and Feltner will get the start here, and it’s sure hard not to love the Cardinals here. Well, everybody will, as Coors always brings the chalk. Maybe take some bats at the bottom of these lineups?
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Gorman, Carloson
GPP note – It’s hard to imagine Arenado NOT having a good game here, coming back to Coors and all. Bombs away!!
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron/Rodgers/McMahon
GPP note – A somewhat low IRT considering they’re at home, Mikolas doesn’t have a super-high strikeout rate as it is, so don’t be shy.
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Late games
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
We’ll switch over to the late game, the first one between the Giants and Padres. Cobb and Musgrove will get the start, and Vegas has given these teams a 7.5 total. I think that’s pretty fair, as we have some good pitching here, but I don’t think we’ll go without a homer or two.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Belt/Pederson/Longoria
GPP note – Vegas doesn’t like these guys’ chances too well, but I think they can hit their over. Musgrove allows a good chunk of power to righties, so consider taking some against him.
Padres 4 star plays – Soto/Bell/Machado
Padres 3.5 star plays – Drury/Profar/Grisham
GPP note – Cobb can hold his own, though these guys are hitting righties for plenty of power. Cobb isn’t allowing a whole lot himself, so this wouldn’t be a terrible spot to hedge a little.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Next up we have Ohtani and the Angels taking on Kaprielian and the Athletics. A 6.5 total, this is the lowest of the day, but that shouldn’t really be too surprising. The Angels will probably carry most of the offensive load here, but that’s not saying much.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Stassi/Ward
GPP note – A decent spot, Kaprielian allows plenty of power to righties and has a low strikeout rate. I don’t know that huge stacks will be the play, but some smaller ones could be.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown, Murphy/Laureano
GPP note – Aside from a random one-off or mini-contrarian stack, you’ll probably want to look elsewhere.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Thompson and the Pirates will take on Henry and the Diamondbacks next, this one with an 8.5 total. Both of these pitchers have had plenty of struggles, and they get a decent park to hit at, so I could see them pushing this one close to or above this total. There are a lot of cheap options here, so why not?
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Cruz/Hayes/Newman
GPP note – Henry allows a decent chunk of contact and power to righties, so don’t be afraid to grab some bats here for supplemental one-offs and/or mini-stacks.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Varsho
GPP note – Also a good spot for traditional splits, Thompson allows plenty to lefties and has a low strikeout rate. Get some exposure here, too.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll head back to Cali for our next game, this one between the Twins and Dodgers. Ryan and Urias will get the start here, and again, an 8.5 total. I’m eyeing the under here, as both pitchers have been solid and could make this one a little slow out of the gate. I don’t think I’d say fade the Dodgers’ offense or anything, but maybe smaller stacks would be better than large ones.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays – Buxton/Correa, Sanchez/Miranda
GPP note – Though a tough spot for these guys, they are hitting lefties well, so this would be a good spot to hedge. Lefties have a slight power advantage here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Freeman, Turner/Turner
GPP note – Ryan allows a lot more power to righties than he does lefties, so try to use some of them to be a little different here. He does get his strikeouts too though, so you could hedge a little here as well.
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll cap the night off with Cole and the Yankees taking on Castillo and the Mariners. Another low total, we only get a 7.0 IRT, and that could be a struggle to reach with these two on the mound. Both pitchers will certainly be worth a look (which isn’t too shocking considering who they are), but I think taking a few key bats could pay off here, too.
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge
Yankees 3.5 star plays – LeMahieu/Donaldson
GPP note – Castillo has been pretty tough to both sides of the plate and is getting plenty of strikeouts, so this may not be the best place to go for big stacks (Vegas isn’t even giving them a 4.0 IRT, for what it’s worth). Some mini-stacks should be fine, though.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – France/Suarez
GPP note – A rough spot here as well, but Cole is allowing some power so taking a few bats against him for some contrarian mini-stacks isn’t the worst thing you could do.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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