Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get split slates today, along with a couple of afternoon games, so there should be something for everybody. We also don’t have to worry about last-minute trades either, so there’s another bonus for today. Anyway, there’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Though we have plenty of options spread around both slates, it seems that most of our stronger options land in the main (evening) one, with most of the early games having average or worse matchups for the pitchers. Granted, for the most part we’ll have to pick pitchers either way, but maybe tiers or paying down for pitching might be the way to go for the early slate, then paying up for them as the later comes come about. Either way, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in today!
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Early slates
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll kick things off with the Blue Jays and Rays, with Kikuchi and Beeks/Yarbrough to get the start. Vegas gives us an 8.0 total, split 50/50 down the middle. That’s pretty fair considering the questionable pitching matchups on both sides, as either side could implode. What a fun way to start the day!
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Hernandez/Chapman
GPP note – Yarbrough has favorable numbers against him in traditional RvL matchups, so focus on attacking him there. Granted, there won’t be many (if any) lefties here anyway, so if there are, you may want to take them for ownership leverage.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena, Diaz
GPP note – Kikuchi’s games seem to be a coin flip as to how he’ll perform, so if nothing else you’ll want some exposure here. You can always hedge too, since he seems to have a high ceiling when he’s on his game.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have Wheeler and the Phillies taking on Morton and the Braves. We get a 7.5 total here, and given the pitching matchup, we could very easily see the under here. Some exposure would probably be useful, but we may need to look elsewhere for big stacks.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber, Hoskins/Realmuto/Bohm
GPP note – Not a great matchup, though there are a handful of bats here who have hit for decent power against righties. If you go here, don’t be afraid of the RvR bats
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Riley, Acuna/Olson/Harris
GPP note – This isn’t the best pitcher to pick on, but I think some small/medium-sized stacks could be useful since there is plenty of power on tap here.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
Castillo will debut for his new team, the Mariners, in our next game. They’ll take on Cole and the Yankees, and given the same 7.5 total here, I don’t know that we’ll see a whole lot of offensive firepower in this one, either.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/Santana, Winker
GPP note – A bad spot for these bats, Cole is allowing power to both sides of the plate (more to lefties), so you could at least run some one-offs or mini-stacks against him. A lot of these guys are hitting for power against righties, so the contrarian approach isn’t off the table.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Rizzo
GPP note – A bad matchup for these guys too, Castillo will be making his debut for his new team and will certainly be at his best to give a good first impression, so this game’s ceiling may be suppressed.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
The Tigers and Twins are up next, with Alexander and Ryan to get the start. We get an 8.5 total, and while I think the over could be an easy target, most of it will probably come from the home team. They won’t be sneaky, so you’ll need to be a little creative with your secondary stacks.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Candelario, Baez
GPP note – There are only two bats hitting for much of anything against righties as of late (the two above), and outside of that, I have minimal interest in these guys.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Miranda, Sanchez
GPP note – Alexander should allow plenty of contact with his low strikeout rate, for as long as he’s in there, giving these bats a nice early bump. Stacks of any size are in play here.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians
Moving on, we next get Henry and the Diamondbacks taking on Bieber and the Guardians. We have another 8.5 total, and like the previous game, it’s looking like the home team will carry the burden of most of the scoring. There could be a few decent spots for the Diamondbacks though, so consider digging in a little there.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte, Rojas
GPP note – A little bit better matchup than one would assume, there are a few bats here in a decent spot, and seeing as Bieber is allowing modest power to lefties, it wouldn’t be a bad place to grab a handful of small contrarian stacks.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Gimenez
GPP note – Who knows what we’ll get here, but if Henry is to have his debut, it’s never a bad idea to stack against him given that fact. Outside of that, the two above are hitting for the most power against lefties recently.
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Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Bradish and the Orioles will take on Perez and the Rangers next, and Vegas is giving us a modest 8.0 total for this one. An okay matchup for both sides, I don’t know that this game goes off the rails, but a few bats on both sides could prosper.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander, Urias/Mateo
GPP note – Perez allows above-average power to righties, making this a decent spot to attack him. He does get his strikeouts, so maybe stick to medium-sized stacks as opposed to larger ones.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien/Garcia
GPP note – Bradish looked decent in his July return, so he might be the pushover his salary might indicate. There are still some good options here, but maybe huge stacks won’t be the answer.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Next up we have another divisional game, this one between my Royals and the White Sox. Singer and Lynn will get the start, and with them, an 8.5 total. Given how Singer has performed, that feels a little bullish to me, but we’ll see how that pans out.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Melendez, Perez
GPP note – Overall not a great matchup, but like the previous teams, some small/medium-sized stacks could prove useful. Lefties have the power advantage, though righties are hitting for better xwOBA against Lynn lately.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Anderson/Abreu, Vaughn
GPP note – Singer is pitching better than his salary (and the IRT Vegas gave these guys) would indicate, so consider hedging here if you’re hard set on stacking here. Righties have the power advantage, for what it’s worth.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
We’ll wrap up the early games with the Red Sox and Astros, with Bello and Urquidy to get the start. After a couple of duds, this feels like the game that will buck the trend. Hopefully people got burned from the last couple of games and will look elsewhere, as it’s always nice to have the lower ownership.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Martinez/Pham
GPP note – Urquidy has allowed big power to righties, so consider attacking him there for some ownership leverage.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Bello is no stranger to getting hit around, and could provide 1 to 4 innings of good opportunities for these bats. It would be a good spot to go back to them after they’ve been a little quiet these last few games.
Afternoon games
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Our first afternoon game will feature Bassitt and the Mets taking on Sanchez and the recently gutted Nationals. We get a 9.0 total, which is (as of early morning) the biggest on the day, so it’s a shame this game isn’t on a larger slate.
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso/McNeil/Nimmo/Vogelbach
GPP note – Sanchez allows plenty of power to both sides, though much more to righties. Be sure to include some RvR bats in any lineups you take against him.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Y. Hernandez, Cruz
GPP note – There’s not a ton to love here after this team was just recently gutted, but Bassitt does at least allow good power to both sides of the plate.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
Our other afternoon game will be between Minor and Alcantara, as the Reds take on the Marlins. We drop down to a 7.0 total, and I could see this game being a dud considering most of the runs were given to a not-so-exciting Marlins offense. Alcantara will probably be just fine, but if Minor has one of his good games, we could see a 1-0 snoozer.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Votto/Moustakas
GPP note – A tough matchup, Alcantara doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses in this matchup, though you could try some contrarian stacks since these bats are having success against righties.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas
GPP note – Minor has allowed plenty of contact and power to lefties, putting these bats in a good spot to come to life. This would be a good hedge spot since Minor can rack up some strikeouts on occasion.
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Main slate
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll switch over to the main slate now, starting with Peralta and the Brewers taking on Beede and the Pirates. We get an 8.0 total for this one, and like a lot of other games today, most of them are soaked up by one side. That would be the Brewers in this one, as they’re in a pretty good spot here. The Pirates, well, there are always contrarian stacks.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, Adames/McCutchen
GPP note – A strong spot for these bats, they’re mostly all hitting righties well and Beede is allowing good contact and power to both sides of the plate. You can pick and choose pretty much anybody here, from top to bottom.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Gamel/Cruz
GPP note – It’s hard knowing exactly where Peralta will be in his return, but seeing how it’s these guys, I wouldn’t get too excited about stacking against him. There are a couple of bats hitting decently, but not much else.
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Next up we have Steele and the Cubs taking on Mikolas and the Cardinals. We have some potential weather concerns with this one, so keep your eye on the sky as the day moves on, as the weather can quickly change here in the midwest. If we see them play, they do have a healthy 8.5 total to work with, so let’s cross our fingers.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki, Morel
GPP note – A matchup split down the middle, these bats haven’t been overly exciting, but Mikolas has allowed plenty of contact and his strikeout rate is well below average. This wouldn’t be a bad place to take a few stacks or consider hedging a little.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt
Cardinals 4 star plays – Arenado, O’Neill/Pujols
GPP note – Although Steele isn’t allowing a lot of power to righties, these guys are blistering lefties, so I would certainly have my exposure here.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Kaprielian and the Athletics will take on Ohtani and the Angels next. Aside from Ohtani pitching, this one doesn’t look overly exciting, so it might just be another game where we only want to take some bits and pieces from it.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown/Murphy/Laureano
GPP note – It’s Ohtani, so stack at your own risk.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Stassi, Rengifo
GPP note – Kaprielian is allowing modest contact and power to both sides to go along with his lower-than-average strikeout rate, so you could try some small/medium-sized stacks here, even if most of these guys are stinking it up against righties.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Next up we have Kuhl and the Rockies taking on Snell and the recently (and massively) upgraded Padres. We’ll see how well this loaded offense can mesh together, though I’m guessing they will do so quite well. They’ll be plenty popular, especially against Kuhl, so you’ll want to work in some wrap-around stacks or other shenanigans to leverage some ownership.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Cron/Grichuk, Blackmon
GPP note – Probably not the best place to go, but you can always try to roll out some contrarian stacks. If you do, traditional splits are the way to go.
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Machado/Bell, Cronenworth
GPP note – The Padres have some hot new bats, and I’m sure they’ll be eager to flex on the rest of the league. Kuhl probably won’t slow them down much, so feel free to go nuts here. Consider using the bottom of the lineup to help with ownership.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Urias and the Dodgers taking on Cobb and the Giants. A 7.5 total, I could see this one playing the under, as both pitchers can hold their own quite well. It’ll mostly depend on how Cobb can navigate through the Dodger’s strong lineup, as is normally the case for opposing pitchers.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Freeman, Turner
GPP note – Cobb has been fairly stingy but doesn’t have a high strikeout rate, so there should be some contact here. These guys can score against just about anyone, so stacking is an option here, as usual.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Yastrzemski, Flores
GPP note – Urias has some reverse splits against him in terms of power, so consider taking a lefty or two here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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