Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/31:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Drew Rasmussen
- Kyle Wright
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (-135)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Mets – Jacob deGrom
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. We get a very strong pitching match-up in this one. What I am really excited to see is the Dodgers’ lineup taking on deGrom. I don’t mind a little Mets stack because I still don’t think that Anderson is all that good of a pitcher (at least not THIS good overall).
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves (-335)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wright is a massive favorite against a scuffling offense in this one. This definitely feels like another spot to be ALL about the Braves, at home. I know Olson let me down a bit last night but he could end up at the top of my Dinger list again tonight. He’s definitely in the top 5 for me right now, as I debate it.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .058 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Cubs – Undecided
Blue Jays – Mitch White
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Cubs to announce a starter. As it sits right now, the Cubs don’t exactly have some dominant guy waiting in the wings. We should be considering a lot of TOR bats, even if they aren’t overly hot at the plate right now. I like White’s ability to get outs but I don’t think this is a spot to use him, even against a weaker CHC lineup.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-135)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Twins need Ryan to be a stabilizer at the front of the rotation down the stretch. The Red Sox need to figure things out as an organization right now. A few of the bats on BOS have been swinging it decently well but I don’t really want to stack again Ryan at home.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Jake Cave
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last week.
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San Diego Padres (-135) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Musgrove feels like a strong play on the surface and while he might end up being very good, I think there are a few SF bats who have had plenty of success against him. I do like a SD stack against Wood, centered around Machado and Bell right now.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .070 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-267)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Pirates continue to play the Brewers decently tough as Cruz seems to be really happy when he gets to face MIL pitching. Reynolds has hit Peralta extremely well. I do think this game goes over the initial Vegas run total as the Brewers have a few guys swinging it with power and who have hit Thompson pretty well overall.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneal Cruz, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-178) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Marlins – Undecided
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. We aren’t sure who MIA will send to the mound today but the Rays are swinging it so well right now, that I don’t think it matters. I will be putting together a few TB stacks on this slate. Rasmussen has been dominant of late and I expect that to continue in this match-up, to be honest.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Jose Siri
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Phillies – Bailey Falter
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Despite this park turning into a pitcher’s park over the last couple of seasons, I think we see runs put up in this game. I know that Henry has looked strong at the MLB level but the Phillies have a few guys who can do damage to LHPs. Falter gives up a lot of HRs to RHBs right now, so ARI could be a sneaky stack or mini-stack candidate for our GPP builds.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Matt Vierling
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Guardians (-178)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Orioles offense has cooled down considerably so I think that makes McKenzie a very interesting GPP option for us. I think the top part of the CLE lineup is in a pretty solid spot and a Kwan-Ramirez mini-stack might be one of my favorites on the day. I don’t mind looking for a one-off HR from the BAL lineup against McKenzie since he can be prone to them.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Kyle Stowers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox (-190)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I like the way that some of the KC bats have hit Lynn and are swinging it right now while the White Sox haven’t hit Bubic all that well. Seeing those numbers makes me really question how I should attack this game, given that the White Sox are such a strong home favorite. My initial thought is that I will have more KC mini-stacks than CWS ones.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Nick Pratto, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-140) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I can’t believe that Javier is under .500 given how strong he has been this season and how the Astros are 36 games over .500. He could be one of the top GPP plays on the early slate but a few of the Rangers’ bats have either hit him well or are hot at the plate right now. Perez is always a steady option despite my belief that he should get knocked around. He has had some struggles with a handful of guys in the HOU lineup.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Martin Maldonado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .250 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-195) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Cole should be pretty popular against an LAA team that can strike out a ton. A couple of the Angels bats are swinging the power while the Yankees lineup isn’t flashing a ton of power right now. With that said, Judge probably hits another today. Cabrera has a very small sample at the MLB level against LHPs but he’s had plenty of success.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Oswaldo Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Mike Ford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-165) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This game really doesn’t excite me, at all. I know the Mariners should be able to put up some runs but they aren’t exactly rolling at the plate right now. I like to use bats against Gonzales but it’s the damn Tigers. A few of the hotter Tigers bats are LH’d so that kind of takes them out of play in my mind. Baez has had success against him and it wouldn’t shock me if he hits an HR today.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Victor Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Washington Nationals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kaprielian
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am shocked to see this game as a pick em. I think that Kaprielian could be a sneaky good option in a game between two terrible teams. Normally, I love picking on Sanchez but the issue is that the A’s are atrocious at the plate. Sean Murphy could be a great one-off play with his power against RHPs. Meneses has been pretty impressive and could take advantage of Kaprielian’s reverse splits.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-235) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jose Quintana
Reds – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Vegas seems to think that CIN puts up a few runs against Quintana. While I don’t necessarily agree, I can see why that might be the thinking. The main part of this game is the STL side against Minor. They have a TON of plus BvP in their favor and when you add in the hitting atmosphere at this ballpark, you get an elite spot for an elite offense against LHPs.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt, STL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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