Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too.We get a nice 13 or 14 (depending on which site you’re looking at) game main slate today, with a couple of early games. Seeing that one of those two is a first of a double-header, and one of the sites isn’t using it outside of a showdown, I’m going to just tackle the main slate here today. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
As is the norm for larger slates, we get a nice range of pitching options today. Several have nice carnage ratings in solid matchups (some in riskier ones, but hey, we’ll see how that plays out), a handful are in tough matchups that will probably give up a chunk of runs, and most of the rest are somewhere in between. We also have the return of deGrom, so it’ll be nice to see him back in the mix. There are a lot of ways to go today, so as always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with the Mariners and Yankees, with Gilbert and Taillon to start. We get a healthy 8.5 total here, which isn’t too bad considering we have two competent starters. It would have been more interesting with Rodriguez, but alas, we want him to be healthy.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/Raleigh/Winker
GPP note – No Rodriguez is a bummer, and these guys aren’t hitting as well as they could be, but when they do see righties they are hitting for power (when they’re not striking out). Taillon is giving up lots of power to both sides, so this could be a good bounce-back game for them.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Rizzo/LeMahieu
GPP note – Not the best matchup of the day, but Gilbert does allow a good amount of power to righties (and moderate to lefties), so you can attack him here. Judge has had some really nice RvR numbers for most of the season.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Next up we have the return of deGrom, as the Mets will take on Washington and a selection of their bullpen pitchers. I think we’ll see a pitch count on deGrom here, though I’m not sure how high that will be, but it might be tough for him to pay off his salary if they don’t let him open up the throttle a bit.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso, Nimmo/Vogelbach
GPP note – It’s a short sample size, but when Abbott has pitched he’s allowed lots of power to both sides of the plate, so don’t be afraid to throw whoever you want at him. Statcast-wise, Vogelbach has the best recent numbers against righties.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Y. Hernandez
GPP note – Aside from the three above, this team is doing very poorly against righties. That’s good for deGrom’s return, though he’ll probably on a pitch count, so I couldn’t tell you how long we’ll see him. I’m not very interested in these bats outside of the three listed above.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Up next we have Burnes and the Brewers taking on Wilson and the Pirates. Vegas is giving us a 7.5 total here, with most of that coming from the visitors. Burnes will probably be popular with his soft matchup, so consider him for your cash games and tournaments alike.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, McCutchen/Adames
GPP note – A solid matchup for these bats, Wilson doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts and these guys are mostly all hitting righties quite well. Stacks of any size are in play here.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Cruz
GPP note – Burnes allows decent power to righties, so if you’re feeling bold you could try to take a one-off or mini-stack against him there, but otherwise I’d give these guys a hard pass.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians
The Diamondbacks and Guardians are next, with Gallen and McKenzie to get the start. Another 7.5 total, there are a few spots here that we can attack, but big stacks going off seems less likely than in other games.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte, Waker/Kelly
GPP note – A bad spot for the lefties, McKenzie does allow some decent power to righties so you could try a couple of RvR bats here if you’re feeling good about some lower-owned pivots.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Rosario
GPP note – An okay matchup for the righties, Gallen allows much more power to them than he does to lefties, so consider taking some RvR bats here to go with Ramirez.
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll head down south for our next game, this one between the Blue Jays and Rays. Gausman and Rasmussen will get the start, and Vegas must feel pretty good about both starters considering the 7.0 total they’re giving this one. Like the previous game, there are some good spots to look at here, and even with this low of a total, I don’t think you can completely count out full Toronto stacks.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Gurrero/Springer, Hernandez/Chapman
GPP note – Not a great matchup on paper, Rasmussen holds his own pretty well against righties. On the flip side, these bats are beating up RHPs, so a case could be made for using them against him, anyway. You could always hedge here, too, if you are unable to take a stand.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Lowe, Arozarena
GPP note – A tough matchup overall, Gausman does allow some power to lefties so you could try a one-off or mini-stack against him. Otherwise, there’s not a ton to love here.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Our next game will be between the Phillies and Braves, with Nelson and Strider on the hill. This one looks to be one for the Braves to walk away with, as everything is in their favor, at least on paper. You can always run some contrarian stacks, but I think Strider will prevail here.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Bohm
GPP note – A tough matchup for these guys, Strider is allowing some power to righties so you could try to attack him there, but I have a feeling he’ll be in control of this one for as long as he’s in it.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Riley/Olson/Harris
GPP note – An unexciting bullpen matchup, these bats can come to life in a flash, so I would stack here as you normally would. The three above lead the way for the most part, but guys like Arcia look interesting, too.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have Manning and the Tigers taking on Archer and the Twins. We get a 9.0 total here, which is the highest on the day (well, early in the morning at least), so both of these teams might be worth a look.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Candelario, Baez
GPP note – This would be a decent place to go if these guys were hitting righties better, as Archer does allow some power and has a low strikeout rate. You can still try it, but maybe not full stacks.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco/Buxton, Correa/Arraez
GPP note – An IRT north of 5.0 will always be worth a look, as this is no exception. Hand vs hand matchup doesn’t really matter here, and you can try some wrap-around stacks to leverage ownership some.
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
We get a rivalry game next, with Thompson and the Cubs taking on Wainwright and the Cardinals. This game looks a little uninspiring at first, but I think there will be a few gems here, so don’t be afraid to take some shots with these, or at least do some digging to see if you can find anything useful.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Suzuki/Contreras, Morel
GPP note – Wainwright has strong reverse splits against him, so if you’re going here, be sure to include some righties.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Gorman/Dickerson
GPP note – Similar to above, Thompson has a higher xwOBA allowed to righties, so that would be a good place to attack.
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Lyles and the Orioles will take on Howard and the Rangers next, this one with an 8.5 total. Lyles can be decent from time to time, which is probably why we didn’t get a 9.0 total (yet, I think it may reach that point though), but I would not be the least bit surprised to see some fireworks here.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutschman, Urias/Mateo
GPP note – A good matchup, Howard allows power to both sides (though more to lefties) and has a low strikeout rate. This could be a good source of some budget bats.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Lowe, Garcia/Semien
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go here, as Lyles has been tough on righties but very soft to lefties.
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Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Next up we have Crawford and the Red Sox taking on Javier and the Astros. Another modest 8.0 total, my gut tells me we will get another final like we did yesterday, which isn’t overly exciting for fantasy purposes. Maybe they’ll prove me wrong, but I’m just feeling that under.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Devers, Martinez
GPP note – Overall a tough matchup for these guys, Javier is allowing some power to both sides, with much more given up to righties. I wouldn’t go with full stacks, but some one-offs or mini-stacks wouldn’t be a terrible idea.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker
GPP note – Though not a stud, Crawford has been decent in his appearances and might be able to keep things calm here for 4-5 innings, which could hamper their ceiling. I’m not saying you should fade them, but don’t auto-stack here just because he’s cheap, assuming he’s a gas can. If you do attack him, go with lefties, as he’s been tough on righties.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Keller and my Royals take on Giolito and the White Sox next, and we move up to an 8.5 total for this one. I think we have the same story on both sides of this one: we have two offenses that can be pretty hit-or-miss, facing two starters that have their share of struggles but are a threat to have the random 8+ strikeout performance. There are certainly more interesting spots to hedge, but if you’re running enough lineups today, don’t forget about these guys.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Witt/Merrifield/Melendez/Perez/Pasquantino
GPP note – Giolito has been struggling, but it’s hard to fault him considering his last start was at Coors. Some exposure here should be fine but consider hedging since his salary has tanked.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Vaughn/Anderson
GPP note – Keller is pretty hit-or-miss, so it’s never a terrible idea to stack against him. He allows more power to righties, which there are plenty of here, so don’t be shy.
Late games
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll switch over to the late-night west coast games, starting with the Athletics and Angels. Irvin and Syndergaard will get the start here, and with them we move down to another 7.0 total. That’s pretty low considering their salaries, so we’ll want to be sure and have our exposure to them. I wouldn’t be against taking some bats against either of them though, as they have shown some weaknesses to go along with their success.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Laureano/Kemp, Murphy/Brown
GPP note – Not the best name to attack, but Syndergaard is allowing decent power to righties and high xwOBA to lefties, so you could stack (or hedge) here.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani
GPP note – Traditional splits are the play here, as Irvin allows much more power to righties than he does to lefties. These guys do like to strikeout though, so don’t be afraid to hedge a little.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Anderson and the Dodgers will take on Wood and the Giants next, and with them, a starting total of 8.0. This one is a bit closer than I expected, but perhaps Vegas sees how well the Giants are hitting lefties right now. Will that be enough for them to take the W from the Dodgers? Maybe, just maybe.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman, Turner/Turner
GPP note – These guys are always in play, though Wood is allowing a good chunk of power to righties, so that might be the way to go here.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski, Flores/Belt
GPP note – Anderson is holding his own quite well, allowing only a moderate amount of power to righties while being pretty strict everywhere else. However, these guys are hitting lefties for power, so it could be a coin flip – another hedge spot, perhaps?
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Urena and the Rockies taking on Darvish and the Padres. At least, I think that’s who we’ll get here, though things are a little unclear with the double-header. If it winds up being somebody else (Feltner vs Knehr, perhaps?), my apologies, but this is my best guess at 5:00 AM CST. Either way, this should be a fine spot for the Padres, and I suspect they’ll walk away with the win here.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Blackmon, Cron/McMahon/Iglesias/Diaz
GPP note – Coors would have made this more enticing, but it’s hard to want to stack against Darvish away from Denver. He allows some power to righties, so you could go with them, should you decide to stack here.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Cronenworth/Profar/Voit/Hosmer
GPP note – Urena is allowing a lot of xwOBA to lefties, making that the better place to attack him from. He’s been strict on righties, but I wouldn’t shy away from the power righties here. Stack away, carnage is on their side!
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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