Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Julio Urias
- Max Scherzer
- Justin Verlander
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Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (-365)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Mets – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Max should do some dominating in this one. He is going to be one of the top options today. The Mets could put up 6 or 7 today and I wouldn’t bat an eye. McNeil keeps hitting while guys like Nimmo and Canha are getting it done as well. Blackmon has had success against Scherzer.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals (-130)
Pitchers:
Braves – Jake Odorizzi
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love this Sunday night game as we get to see Wainwright at home. On the surface, the Cardinals are in a far better spot than the Braves but the ATL lineup is about as dangerous as they come. I do think that there are a couple of HRs hit in this game.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays (-240)
Pitchers:
Angels – Tucker Davidson
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Trout has absolutely owned Stripling in their meetings. The TOR lineup has cooled down a bit but I think a guy like Davidson could get them ignited, at home. I want to believe that the over is the likely outcome here.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ Minnesota Twins (-115)
Pitchers:
Giants – Jakob Junis
Twins – Aaron Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Minnesota picked up a late win last night after being non-existent over the first 8 innings. Correa and Kepler have hit Junis extremely well in their careers. Sanchez isn’t a very good pitcher at this point but he gets to face a struggling SF lineup.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
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San Diego Padres (-190) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Royals – Jon Heasley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The total in KC is HUGE considering the ballpark is such a solid pitcher’s park. The Padres really need Manaea to figure it out at some point. A handful of the SD bats have started to show some life. Heasley has struggled the most with LHBs.
SD 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Ha Seong Kim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-150)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Brewers are in a decent spot but a lot of their lineup has had some struggles. I won’t argue against getting a MIL stack or two in your builds but I might just go one-off hunting in this game as there probably ends up being 2 or so HRs hit.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-292) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. This is the stand-alone, Sunday morning game. The Dodgers’ lineup has been rolling but Cabrera has an elite arm. Urias is in an absolutely GREAT spot as this MIA squad is struggling quite a bit.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jerar Encarnacion
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies (-267)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Roansy Contreras
Phillies – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually might not want to stack in this game. It’s tough right now because I like the way a lot of the PHI lineup is swinging it but I really like Contreras’ upside. The more that I think about it, the more likely I am to get a couple of PHI stacks for upside purposes.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros (-267)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Austin Voth
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Verlander, the AL Cy Young leader, gets BAL at a pretty good time. I like the HOU side quite a bit and think there’s a chance their run total increases as the morning moves along. I wouldn’t be shocked if a HOU stack gets you 3 HRs today as their power can pop up out of nowhere at home.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago White Sox (-190)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zach Davies
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I think we see a bit of wake-up from the CWS bats against Davies. He has long been a reverse splits guy and that plays into the main Chicago hitters’ hands. Cease has a shot at a massive performance and should carry plenty of ownership today.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (-165)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Drew Hutchison
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a game with weak pitching but one of the offenses is terrible and the other hasn’t been as potent as they envisioned. With that being said, Lowe has been absolutely rolling at the plate the last couple of weeks and makes an excellent one-off bat.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-225) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Yankees – Clarke Schmidt
A’s – Adrian Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I want to see the Yankees wake up more as DFS baseball is better when the top teams are putting up runs. It allows us to play match-ups and ownership more and creates strategies. Judge is going to get to 50 in the next couple of days so why not today?
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners (-155)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I actually like to pick on Civale but the Mariners lineup isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Ray is definitely a high upside arm as the reigning Cy Young in the AL. Rosario has dominated Ray in their match-ups while I think more of the SEA lineup has upside in this game.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds (-115) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We have been picking on Corbin all year long but can we do with Reds? Lodolo has a big-time arm and he has flashed a ton of DFS upside. I really have no desire to use multiple bats in this one, so it’s really going to be Lodolo and maybe a one-off bat from either side.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-120) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Corey Kluber
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Rays have a bunch of bats who have hit Pivetta really well in their careers and a few of them happen to be swinging it pretty well at the moment. I think that Kluber could be a surprise GPP play but I also think that a BOS stack could get you somewhere in GPPs.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe
4-star plays: Harold Ramirez, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Mets
- San Diego Padres
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Mike Trout, LAA
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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