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MLB DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections Today August 26th | Fanduel Draftkings

Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get our usual big slate Friday, this time in the 14-game variety.  There’s a nice variety of pitching options and plenty of offenses to consider, so let’s dig and see what the day has to offer!

A look at pitchers

We have wide range of pitching options today: everything from studs against soft offenses to gas cans against strong offenses, and everything in between. Six pitchers top the 500 KSCORE mark (one even breaks 600), four are in the 300 range (yikes), and the rest somewhere in the 400s. With such a wide range of matchups, it’ll be important as always to grab the stars and avoid the traps, so as always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.



Main slate

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

We’ll kick things off with the Pirates and Phillies, with Wilson and Falter to get the start. Harper is scheduled to return, so we’ll see if he and the Phillies offense gives the home crowd a good show to go along with that. They have one of the higher IRTs on the slate, so Vegas seems to think that they will.

Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Reynolds/Newman
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting lefties very well, though Falter is allowing lots to righties. Nobody will be on these bats (probably), so that could be reason enough to take a mini-stack or two here.

Phillies 5 star plays – Harper?
Phillies 4 star plays
– Schwarber, Realmuto/Hoskins
GPP note
– This offense will get a spark with the return of Harper, as well as having a good matchup against Wilson. He offers a low strikeout rate and plenty of contact and power to both sides, so stacks of any size are in play here.


Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

Next up we have Minor and the Reds taking on Cavalli and the Nationals. This will be the latter’s 2022 debut, so we’ll see how he handles himself. His offense shouldn’t have much problem providing some run support, so maybe that’ll give him a little more confidence.

Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Fraley/India/Moustakas/Romine
GPP note – An unknown matchup against Cavalli, a few of these guys are hitting righties for power, so you can always take some swings here.

Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays
– Meneses/Cruz
GPP note
– Sort of like the Pirates, most of these bats (aside from the two above) are hitting poorly against their opposing pitcher’s hand (lefties in this case), but Minor is allowing plenty of power to both sides. This could be a spot for them to have a big bounce back, and Minor’s low strikeout rate could help facilitate that.


Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

Detmers and the Angels will take on White and the Blue Jays next. An 8.5 total, I could see this one going under, as both pitchers can hold their own. That might put both of these pitchers in play as mid-range SP2s. I don’t think both offenses will be useless by any means, but perhaps other games will have better stacking options.

Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Ward/Rengifo
GPP note – White has been tough to both sides of the plate, but there are enough bats hitting righties for power that you could make a mini-stack (or just an Ohtani one-off).

Blue Jays 4 star plays – Springer/Guerrero
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays
– Hernandez/Merrifield/Kirk/Chapman
GPP note
– Detmers will look to have a strong rebound performance here, after getting smacked around by the Tigers last week. That game aside, he’s been solid with a strong strikeout rate, so consider hedging if you grab some Toronto stacks.


Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

Moving on, we have Yarbrough and the Rays taking on Wacha and the Red Sox. We get some slight weather concerns here, as well as another modest 8.5 total, so that might make this one uninteresting to a lot of players. Perhaps some lower-owned players can be found here?

Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Arozarena/Diaz
GPP note – Wacha has been solid in his return and will look to keep that going. I’d be cautious taking huge stacks against him in his current form, though a few RvR bats here could be useful in small groups.

Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays
– Devers/Bogaerts/Martinez, Pham
GPP note
– There are good numbers against lefties here, but beware of Yarbrough’s above-average strikeout rate. I’d opt for bats with lower strikeout rates here if at all possible.


Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Another game with some weather concerns, we have the Rockies and Mets facing off with Kuhl and Bassitt on the mound. Should they play as scheduled, this one looks pretty heavily favored towards the home team, and I can’t really argue against how Vegas has this one marked down.

Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Blackmon, Cron/Diaz
GPP note – Not exactly a great matchup against Bassitt, though his strikeout rate is a bit lower than his salary would indicate. A lot of these bats are doing a good job of making contact, so some contrarian stacks aren’t out of the question.

Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets4 star plays
– Alonso/Marte/Vogelbacg/Canha/Nimmo
GPP note
– This is a spicy matchup for these guys, so stack away however you see fit. The RvR bats are in just as good of a spot as the LvR ones, so don’t let that keep you off of them.


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Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

We’ll head down south next, with the Tigers taking on the Rangers. Alexander and Otto will get the start here, and with only an 8.0 total, it doesn’t seem too exciting at first glance. However, I do think there’s more to this game than what first meets the eye, so be sure to do some digging around here.

Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Greene/Baez, Castro
GPP note – There’s not a ton to love here, though Otto does have a low strikeout rate and has decent reverse splits against him.

Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays
– Seager/Lowe, Taveras/Heim/Heim
GPP note
– Alexander has a very low strikeout rate, so for however long he’s in this game, these Texas bats will be in a good spot to do some damage. This could be a good place to go to pivot from the 5+ IRT offenses.


San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals

Next up we have Musgrove and the Padres taking on Bubic and my Royals. Another modest 8.5 total, I just have one of those feelings that the visitors are going to beat up on my guys here. I think we’ll see their total creep up as the day goes on, and perhaps their ownership, too.

Padres 5 star plays – Soto/Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Bell/Drury
GPP note – While Bubic isn’t allowing a ton of power, Vegas has this offense under 5 implied runs, and The K isn’t exactly a batter’s ballpark, there’s too much talent on this team to not want to play them. They need the offense to really start clicking heading into September, and the KC bullpen would be a good source of some raw current for them.

Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays
– Witt/Perez/Melendez
GPP note
– This isn’t a great spot against Musgrove, but he does allow decent power to both sides of the plate. Some mini-stacks or one-offs can be used here.


San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins

Wood and the Giants will face Ryan and the Twins next, and we have another total that feels a little lower than expected. While both of these pitchers can hold their own, neither are exactly studs, so I could see these offenses getting a little less love than they might deserve.

Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Pederson/Longoria
GPP note – Ryan is allowing plenty of power to both sides, but more actually to righties. He does have a solid strikeout rate too though, so be a little careful here and consider hedging if you use these bats.

Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa
Twins 3 star plays
– Arraez/Miranda, Urshela
GPP note
– Wood has some decent traditional splits working against him, so some righties are in play here (fortunately there are a good number of them to choose from).


Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

We’ll head back south for our next game, this one between the Orioles and Astros. Bradish and McCullers will get the start here, and this one just has Houston written all over it. I don’t think that Bradish and the Baltimore bullpen will have much for them, so perhaps Houston will go the over all by themselves.

Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3 star plays – Rutschman/Santander/Mullins/Mateo
GPP note – McCullers has looked okay in his return but righties have had the upper hand against him more than lefties have, so consider taking one or two of them here if you’re looking for some lower-owned bats.

Astros 5 star plays – Altuve/Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays
– Bregman/Mancini/Pena
GPP note
– Bradish is allowing more power to righties than to lefties, so consider taking some extra RvR bats here. A hot summer Friday evening will probably lead to some scoring, so stack away!


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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

We’ll head back north once again (this really isn’t an efficient path, is it?) for our next game, this one between the Cubs and Brewers. Steele and Peralta will get the start, and with that, a 7.5 total. This one is pretty believable, though I do think one of these teams will have a little more luck than Vegas is hinting at.

Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras
Cubs 3 star plays -Suzuki/Happ, Reyes/Wisdom
GPP note – Peralta hasn’t been pitching quite as well as his salary would indicate, so I think some stacks here could be useful. He’s allowing plenty of power to both sides (slightly more to lefties), so don’t be afraid to try your luck here.

Brewers 4 star plays – McCutchen/Yelich
Brewers 3 star plays
– Renfroe/Tellez
GPP note
– Steele has been tough and is getting plenty of strikeouts, so I’d be careful here. If you do stack these guys, do consider hedging.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox

Henry and the Diamondbacks will take on Cueto and the White Sox next, and we go back up to an 8.5 total for this one. Once again, it’s mostly from the home team, and they’re in a pretty nice spot here to do some scoring. Cueto seems to be playing with fire here and there, but I don’t think this is the game he gets burned.

Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker
Diamondbacks 3 star plays – Marte/Varsho
GPP note
– Cueto isn’t getting his strikeouts but he’s also not allowing very much hard contact or power. I think his day to get blown up is coming, but I’m not sure it’s today.

White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays
– Robert/Abreu/Pollock, Vaughn/Andrus
GPP note
– Henry has been holding his own but is allowing a lot of power to righties. There are plenty of them here, and while they haven’t been hitting lefties as well as they could be, this is a spot where they could do some damage.


Atlanta Braves at St Louis Cardinals

Next up we have the Braves taking on the Cardinals, with Strider and Quintana getting the start. A 7.0 total, Vegas seems to like their chances, and for the most part, I do too. However, I do think that the Braves got a little low-balled here, but we’ll see how things play out.

Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Riley, Harris
GPP note – Statcast-wise, Quintana has been pretty tough to both sides of the plate. However, he’s been allowing some hits again and his strikeout rate has dropped some. The Braves have a sub-4 IRT, so they might not be as popular as they could be otherwise, so this could be a good spot to go for some lower-than-usual exposure.

Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 3 star plays
– Gorman/DeJong
GPP note
– This is a tough matchup against Strider who is, for the most part, having a great season. However, he’s not invincible, so a few contrarian stacks here aren’t off the table.


Late games

New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics

We’ll switch over to our late games, the first between the Yankees and Athletics. Cole and Sears will get the start here, and I think we all know how this one is going to play out. I’d throw out some hot take, but I don’t really think we’ll see anything outside the norm happen here.

Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Stanton (?), LeMahieu/Donaldson
GPP note – Sears is allowing some power to righties, lots of xwOBA to lefties, and isn’t getting many strikeouts. It’s a good spot for these guys to do some late-night damage, so be sure to grab some bats as they seem to be heating back up.

Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays
– Brown /Murphy
GPP note
– A bad matchup against Cole, but he is allowing some power to righties. You can grab a contrarian mini-stack or one-off, but I’d be careful using much more than that.


Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners

And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Bieber and the Guardians set to take on Gilbert and the Mariners. Another 7.0 total, this game looks a little more balanced than the previous, but there’s still not much love for these offenses. We’ll see how that goes, but again, I think the visitors’ total is a little too low.

Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Kwan/Gimenez/Gonzalez/Maile
GPP note – Gilbert continues to struggle and has been allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate to go along with his low strikeout rate (that correlates well with this offense’s low strikeout rate overall). I don’t see these guys getting a ton of ownership with such a low IRT, so consider running some stacks of your own here.

Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays
– Rodriguez
GPP note
– Another tough matchup to cap off the night, Bieber has been tough and has a solid above-average strikeout rate. This low IRT seems more logical for this offense, so be careful stacking here.


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And that’s going to do it for this one.  Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.  Best of luck today!

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