Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/23:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Ranger Suarez
- Robbie Ray
- Max Fried
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Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies (-120)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 11. The Rangers just took 3 of 4 from MIN so they come in riding the wave. I generally like to avoid teams in their first game or two in Coors so I will be underweight on TEX bats. On the other side, the COL offense isn’t exactly steamrolling with a handful of guys struggling. It might be a good night to fade the Coors.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Leody Taveras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-278) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We know that Fried will be very popular tonight and I won’t be trying to get cute. He gets a great match-up, as a massive favorite. The ATL offense has gone a little cold of late but they are so dangerous that I always want to get exposure to them as a stack.
ATL 5-star plays: Vaughn Grissom
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Ben Gamel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
New York Mets @ New York Yankees (-130)
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Yankees – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Judge woke up a bit last night, connecting on HR number 47. He takes on Walker, who he has 3 HRs in 11 PAs against. Montas hasn’t been great with the Yankees but call me hopeful, I think he comes to play tonight. With that said, I definitely will stack against him.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays (-178)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Kluber should be a very popular option as we have been picking on the LAA lineup for a while at this point. Trout has hit Kluber with some power but that’s about it. For TB, I like how the lineup comes together a bit against LHPs but they still aren’t an overly dangerous lineup. I will have a TON of mini-stacks, though.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zack Davies
Royals – Jon Heasley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Perez is 3 for 6 with 3 HR against Davies in his career. I point that out because I think we could see the KC middle wake up a bit. With that being said, this game is FAR from exciting as both offenses have been sputtering for a while at this point.
ARI 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Stone Garrett
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .047 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-190) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Cubs – Javier Assad
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wainwright has been pretty strong against the Cubs this year but I noticed he has just 4 Ks in 14 innings against them. He is a lot worse when pitching on the road and he isn’t as strong pitching in day games. The Cardinals’ offense should be popular yet again, as they are putting up numbers.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbar
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jake Woodford
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras, Rafael Ortega
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. We get a great pitching match-up (I say great but I’m not a believer in Gonsolin long term) and a low total. The MIL offense hasn’t been racking up hits but they are hitting HRs right now. The LAD get a tougher match-up but they are a whole lot better from an offensive standpoint. I don’t see much of a reason to fully stack either side.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies (-220)
Pitchers:
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am really torn in this game as I am a big Lodolo fan and think he has a bright future but the right bats on PHI are heating up and that could make it tough on him. My initial thought is that I want to stack PHI a decent amount but knowing that I will also have a 10-15% share of Lodolo in my MME build. Suarez is in a great spot and could definitely get overlooked some.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
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Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros (-355)
Pitchers:
Twins – Aaron Sanchez
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Correa makes his return to Houston but unfortunately, the Twins have to both, start Aaron freaking Sanchez and face Justin Verlander. It’s going to be an ugly night for the Twins and their fans as I think the Astros put up 10 tonight while there’s no way MIN gets to Verlander for that kind of an output.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-145) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Orioles – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Both teams have a couple of bats that are pretty hot at the plate right now but the White Sox have lacked power and the Orioles take on the guy sitting as the 2nd favorite for AL Cy Young. Abreu has been hot at the plate and Sheets has been the only CWS bat showing power. Rutschman has been every bit of the top prospect in baseball while the rest of the BAL lineup has been surprising.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .066 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week
San Francisco Giants (-225) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Tigers – Drew Hutchison
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Despite the decent team ISO recently, the Giants aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire. We definitely should be using Rodon tonight as the Tigers are just so damn weak overall. I know he’s hard to trust and with so many pitching options, I think we are fine skipping him in cash game builds.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harold Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week
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Miami Marlins (-140) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
A’s – Zach Logue
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Marlins have been so bad against LHPs this season that I might have to consider some Logue exposure, which just feels dirty at this point. Lopez has been pretty bad over his last 6 starts but he’s so much better on the road and in night games. If you take those two splits to heart and add in how weak the OAK lineup is, you get a guy that could be a really interesting GPP option for us tonight.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jerar Encarnacion, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ San Diego Padres (-155)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is a pretty good spot for the Padres bats to wake up and my Twins fandom really needs them to. Clevinger gets to take on his old team while most of their lineup is struggling. Kwan might move to a 5-Star option for this article as he has been really strong at the top of the lineup. Machado heating up is a big time thing for the Padres.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Seattle Mariners (-278)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Ray has the best match-up on the board, it’s just a matter of focus for him at this point. The Mariners bats could put up some runs tonight as I don’t think Fedde is all that strong, coming off of the IL. Winker has hit Fedde really well from a power standpoint while JRod is the most exciting player on the team. Meneses has destroyed LHPs since being called up but Ray isn’t some walk in the park LHP.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .200 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-170) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Red Sox – Josh Winckowski
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was told, right away this morning, that the weather in this game looks to be very troublesome. That part sucks because I really wanted to attack some bats in this one, mainly from the TOR side. Stripling is capable of doing great work but a few of the BOS bats are either hot or have hit him really well in their careers.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Toronto Blue Jays
- San Diego Padres
MLB Dinger of the Day – Alex Bregman, Houston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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