Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/21:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shohei Ohtani
- Brandon Woodruff
- Luis Castillo
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San Francisco Giants (-130) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 11. Man, we get a Coors game and yet I don’t have much of a desire to attack it. I know that either team could hit 4 HRs and win the slate but I just don’t see it. I’d rather gamble for the one-off HR or two in this one.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Thairo Estrada, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .089 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-120)
Pitchers:
Reds – Mike Minor
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I won’t be fully stacking either team since they are pretty bad. I do like the idea of mini-stacking both sides with the guys that I have below. Fraley is a very solid one-off option for me as well. Reynolds and Newman are extremely hot right now.
CIN 5-star plays: Jake Fraley
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-120)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. We know that the Yankees are ice cold so I am finally willing to bypass them. That’s not saying much considering it’s a tough spot against Manoah. The TOR lineup has some plus BvP spots and I think they get to Cortes in this match-up.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .090 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-170)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This happens to be another game that I have very little interest in. Neither SP is one that I think ends up in winning GPP lineups while the offenses lack excitement for me. I think you can get away with trying a dart stack of each side but I am not going to prioritize them.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals (-130) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jose Quintana
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Cardinals have dominated the ARI pitching staff in this series but Kelly isn’t the same kind of pitcher. He has the stuff to shut down an offense but the problem for him is that STL is just, flat out, hot. I think there are a couple of ARI bats that could do damage but I also think Quintana has a shot at being in a winning build.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-160) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get a great pitching match-up with, what I assume, is very solid pitching weather. Woodruff looked great against the Dodgers last time out while Steele has been solid all year. The Brewers don’t hit LHPs very well and the Cubs aren’t going to keep hitting with power.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-165)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Dodgers – Ryan Pepiot
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. Alcantara has been lights out for a horrendous team. The big thing that stands out to me is that the Dodgers roster has had decent success against him in their careers. Pepiot has dominated RHBs and while he has control issues at times, he could be a great play in this one.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JJ Bleday
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Max Muncy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
Pitchers:
Mets – Jose Butto
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Phillies need to pick up a win here and while Gibson can be solid, I think the Mets get to him for some runs. Butto is making his debut so I do think the PHI lineup does a little damage. It’s tough to predict which part of the lineup but I have to think that Castellanos stays hot.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
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Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves (-145)
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Morton has had decent success against HOU while I think that ATL gets to Urquidy. He has been worse on the road and he has been a pretty severe reverse splits so a guy like Austin Riley is in a GREAT HR spot today.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-125) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Cease has a chance to help his Cy Young resume (he’s not the favorite) against a decent CLE team. A few of the CLE bats have hit him pretty well but I really need the White Sox to pick up the W here. Civale isn’t exactly a strong SP but the White Sox bats have been cold. They do have a few guys who have had success against Civale.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week
Los Angeles Angels (-210) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Ohtani is going to be really popular and that’s fine with me. I am going to continue to pick on the Tigers with SPs. E-Rod makes his MLB return after a lengthy “absence”. He did make 4-ish rehab starts and looked decent recently. He gets an interesting match-up and I think I want to go overweight on him in my GPP builds.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tucker Barnhart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week
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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins (-205)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Twins – Joe Ryan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Twins are in a great spot as Arihara has struggled at the MLB level. Ryan has had some struggles recently but he could turn it around a bit in this one. Lowe has been one of the hotter hitters in baseball recently. I debated a couple of MIN bats for my dinger of the day call (Correa, Buxton).
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Jose Miranda, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (-292)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Padres – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We could see a bunch of runs in this one as we know how terrible Corbin has been. Manaea hasn’t been much better for a while this season. I know the Nationals aren’t very good but they aren’t just rolling over. Machado is on my short list for Dinger calls today.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-220) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Athletics – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I know that everybody will be on Castillo, which makes a ton of sense. What I think people miss is being on Sears with how well he has thrown. I know the SEA lineup can be enticing but the total is just 6.5 which really brings a guy like Sears into play as a sneaky GPP option.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox (EVEN) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a Sunday night match-up that should have some runs put on the board. Kremer had a dominant stretch but I think BOS does enough to get to him. The Orioles could put up 8 tonight and I wouldn’t be shocked. I hope Mullins returns to the lineup.
BOS 5-star plays: Alex Verdugo
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Christian Arroyo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Minnesota Twins
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Riley, Atlanta
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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