Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/20:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Reid Detmers
- Drew Rasmussen
- Joe Musgrove
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San Francisco Giants (-170) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 11. The COL bats had been pretty damn cold coming into Friday night and while they did break out, I think they might struggle. Cron and Grichuk have hit Cobb EXTREMELY well. Feltner can get knocked around by LHBs and the Giants have plenty of them.
SF 5-star plays: Lamont Wade
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .059 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-120)
Pitchers:
Reds – Justin Dunn
Pirates – Tyler Beede
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. It’s really tough to think about wanting pieces of this gigantic turd of a match-up. I don’t mind one-offs or mini-stacks because we do expect there to be runs scored. I just have a hard time wanting to click more than a name or two without dry heaving.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-190)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Mitch White
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. We are going to see the Yankees bats wake up at some point and while I do like Mitch White, I think it could be in this one. They NEED Cole to step up and be the true ace in a time when they are struggling mightily. He hasn’t had the greatest games against TOR but I am not betting against him.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-220)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. If the Rays were more trustworthy offensively, I would love the match-up for them. Rasmussen, no relation, has been absolutely rolling on the mound and he probably continues it as long as he’s able to solve the riddle that is Vinnie Pasquantino.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals (-155) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get to use the Cardinals against another LHP today. What that means is we get Goldschmidt in yet another great spot and he may end up as my Dinger Call again. Arizona has a decent team total but I don’t really feel excited about stacking them.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-120) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Freddy Peralta
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Both teams come into this one having hit a bunch of HRs over the last week so there definitely is some upside, depending on the wind at Wrigley. We know that both SPs are more than capable of shutting down the opposition so this is a game we will have to dig into a bit deeper in the notes on site.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Dodgers – Dustin May
Rundown:
We are waiting on the Vegas information. May is making his MLB return after having Tommy John surgery. He apparently has looked dominant during his rehab starts and gets an ideal opponent. He most likely tops out at about 80 pitches tonight. Garrett has flashed dominant stretches but this isn’t a spot to go to him.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jerar Encarnacion
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (-176) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Trevor Williams
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I certainly like the PHI lineup against Williams while the Mets have a few guys swinging it well to go with a couple of guys who have had success against Wheeler. We have to pay attention to lineups since it’s a doubleheader, as both teams will try to get away with sitting a guy or two for one of the two games.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information for Game 2. I do like this one to offer us more offense but that’s not really going out on a limb considering we have Wheeler going in Game 1. Alonso is in a great spot but so is Hoskins on the other side.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
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Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves (-135)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This one is really tough to narrow down. We know that both SPs have been extremely dominant this season but we also know that both offenses are great and have been swinging it pretty well of late. I lean more towards the ATL offense getting to Javier than HOU to Strider at this point in the morning.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (-178)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We probably end up seeing a pretty solid pitcher’s duel in this one. I generally want to attack Cueto but the Guardians aren’t a super dangerous offense and my Twins fandom really needs the White Sox to find a way to beat Bieber today. The top of the CLE lineup is an interesting mini-stack.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Andres Gimenez
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week
Los Angeles Angels (-165) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We probably won’t see a whole lot of offense in this one and Detmers is going to be one of my favorite/top pitchers on the slate. The return of Trout gives the LAA lineup some excitement but the overall lineup is still really damn bad at this point.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last week
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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins (-178)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Twins – Chris Archer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I realize that the overall Twins lineup has lacked the punch of late but they line up great against the reverse splits of Otto. Correa has an HR against him while Buxton and Miranda offer a TON of pop from the right side. A few of the TEX bats are in a plus spot as well, so right now I lean more to the over.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Jose Miranda, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres (-335)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Musgrove should dominate but I am shocked to see him as such a strong favorite. I realize that WSH is bad but Gray has been really good on the road. It does kind of feel like a Juan Soto spot since Gray does have HR issues and he struggles against LHBs overall.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machad0, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-190) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Athletics – James Kaprielian
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gilbert should be strong enough to be in consideration for us tonight, even if SEA has started to limit his pitch count. I am looking at J-Rod to break out a bit and he has had success against Kaprielian this season. In fact, a handful of SEA bats have hit him well.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I don’t know that I love going back to this one after 25 runs were scored on Friday as I wouldn’t be shocked by a bit of a hangover. Bradish can get hit hard but BOS lost a couple of guys last night. Wacha looked elite in his return from the IL last time out so maybe he does enough to hold back the BAL lineup.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Bobby Dalbec
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- New York Mets
- San Diego Padres
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt, STL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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