MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Fanduel and DraftKings Tuesday July 26th, 2022 MAIN SLATE

It was a good All-Star break, I had a busy weekend, but lets get back to it on this nice Tuesday night slate!

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

 

The post speaks for itself! Congrats to  “johnson_j2” on taking down $100k in PGA

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (13 Games)

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Shane McClanahan @ BAL

Shane O’ Mac is making his first start after the All-Star Break here for the Rays and has a good matchup with the Orioles here. He’s faced them just 1 time this year and it was his first start of the year where he only tossed 68 pitches, so I’m throwing that one out. He has not allowed more than 2 ER since May and has been able to get good strikeout numbers all season for the Rays. I like his upside here for the QS and he can rack up 8-10 strikeouts in this matchup too. ALL FORMATS

Carlos Rodon @ ARI

Rodon is facing a nice team in Arizona tonight. They aren’t striking out that much against LHP, but Rodon is a different lefty. Since his great complete game 12 strikeout game against the Padres, he struggled a bit in his next two starts, but those were against the Dodgers and Brewers, both better offenses than the Diamondbacks. He did struggle in his start against Arizona this year too, allowing 4 ER in just 5 innings. Rodon does have at least 7 K’s in his last 4 starts. Their current roster is only 6-35 against Rodon though with 12 strikeouts. I do like the upside for Rodon though here and he should be safe for cash games. ALL FORMATS

Aaron Nola vs ATL

Very tough matchup again for Nola here against the Braves. There are some guys on the Braves that have good numbers against Nola, but he does have some massive strikeout upside. He has thrown at least 7 innings in 8 straight starts and his last time out he struck out 10 in 8.1 innings. When he last faced the Braves he did allow 4 ER, but he did strike out 8 over 7 innings. Against Atlanta this year, he has 15.1 innings pitched with 18 K’s and 4 of the 5 ER he has allowed against them were in his last start against them. Home runs have been a problem for Nola at home, and this Braves team does have 14 carer homeruns against him with Ozuna, Riley, and Acuna each having 3. I do like his upside, but there’s a ton of risk in this matchup. ATL is striking out 26.3% of the time against RHP in the last 2 weeks, so there is upside. GPP

Luis Garcia @ OAK

Garcia has been a bit better on the road this year for the Astros. He’s allowed half the amount of HR’s on the road and is limiting hitters to just a .193 batting average. Garcia has been pretty consistent, but the length is a worry for me. He does have a good matchup against the A’s here tonight, but we need him to go 6 innings with 7+ K’s. It’s not out of the question, but we need to see some better length from him. GPP

Spencer Strider @ PHI

I love this kid, he’s been really good for the Braves since getting into the rotation. He has struggled over his last couple of starts but he faced Washington and the Mets who don’t normally strike out much. Overall though, Strider has elite strikeout stuff and already has 114 K’s in 74 innings this season. On the road this year, he has 52 K’s in 35 innings over 10 appearances (5 starts) and is allowing hitters to hit just .125 against him. I love the upside for him as the Phillies come into this game striking out 30.7% against RHP in the last 2 weeks. LEAN GPP

Jordan Montgomery @ NYM

Montgomery is coming off a really good start against the Astros where he struck out 8 over 6.1 innings. He’s been up and down this season and hasn’t really gotten tons of strikeouts in starts. This matchup against the Mets is a tough one, but over the last 2 weeks, the Mets have a 26.7% strikeout rate while hitting just .192 with an ISO of .064. The Yankees need to get back-rolling again after this ASB with Toronto heating up right now. There is a risk here, but with how the Mets are hitting lefties right now I think we can take some chances in GPPs. GPP 

George Kirby vs TEX

Kirby is getting called back up to start this game against the Rangers here tonight at home. He has actually pitched fairly well for Seattle this season, pitching to a 2-3 record and a 3.78 ERA with just under a K per inning but isn’t walking many hitters at the big league level. Seattle will likely watch the innings on the young righty, but this is a decent matchup against the Rangers here. If he can get around Seager, I think he could have some success here tonight. TEX comes into this game with a 24.8% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. They do have a ton of power, but if he can limit damage he could have a decent start at a good price. GPP

Mike Clevinger @ DET

The Padres need their starters to stay healthy if they don’t want to fall further back of the Dodgers and potentially lose a WC spot. Losing Gore for the foreseeable future could hurt their pitching a bit. Clevinger has had an injury plagued first half, but he ended it on a strong note, throwing 6 innings with 8 K’s against ARI. He now faces the Tigers here who is such a plus matchup. They have a 25% strikeout rate while hitting only .181 with an ISO of .093 against RHP in the last 2 weeks. I can see another good start from Clevinger here against DET. ALL FORMATS

Jose Berrios vs STL

I wasn’t going to add him into my pitching article today, but I noticed that Goldy and Arenado are both not able to travel with the team up to Canada because of COVID vaccination status. Berrios has been a lot better at home this year and has finally started to turn around his season for the Jays. Considering the Cards could have a little watered down lineup, I don’t mind taking chances with him against the Cardinals here. GPP

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1.  Shane McClanahan
2. Carlos Rodon
3. Mike Clevinger
4. Spencer Strider
5. Luis Garcia
6. Aaron Nola
7. Jose Berrios
8. Jordan Montgomery
9. George Kirby

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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate

1. San Diego Padres
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. New York Yankees
5. Chicago White Sox

 

DINGER OF THE DAY 

Freddie Freeman

Freeman and the Dodgers have a good matchup against Gray this year who has been allowing a ton of Home-Runs this season. On the season, Gray has allowed 21 HR, but most have come at home. The way the Dodgers have been hitting it’s hard to ignore this. Gray has allowed 13 HR against lefties and Freeman has been seeing the ball well. Freeman is going to be my dinger of the day call tonight.

 

 

 

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