It was a good All-Star break, I had a busy weekend, but lets get back to it on this nice Tuesday night slate!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (8 Games)
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Shohei Ohtani vs TEX
Ohtani has been just brilliant on the mound this season for the Angels and now he has a pretty good matchup against the Rangers tonight. Texas comes into this game with a 24.9% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and Ohtani has some lights-out stuff. Ohtani has at least 10 strikeouts in 5 straight starts with the most being 13. His last start he did struggle a bit allowing 6 ER, but still managed to strike out 11 hitters in 6.1 innings. 6 of his last 7 starts have gone for more than 6 innings and I don’t really see this Rangers team doing much damage against him. At home this season pitching he has a 2.05 ERA with 70 K’s in just 48 innings and allowing hitters to hit just .184. Love him tonight and his upside. ALL FORMATS
Zack Wheeler @ PIT
Really good matchup against the Pirates here tonight for Wheeler and he has been pretty solid for the Phils all season. PIT comes into this game with a 25% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .216 and have a minisucle ISO of .085 in the last 2 weeks. Outside of his start against Toronto where he struggled, Wheeler has thrown 6+ innings in 10 of his last 12 starts. He has had some struggles on the road compared to at home, but still can manage over a strikeout per inning. I like his chances to throw another QS here. ALL FORMATS
Triston McKenzie @ BOS
Boston is in a free fall right now and a lot of it has to do with their pitching not throwing well. They did manage to score some runs last night but their bullpen and bad defense blew the game again for them. McKenzie has been pretty good in 6 home starts this year, throwing 37 innings and striking out 42 hitters while allowing a .182 batting average against. Overall, Boston’s offense has just been bad though in the last couple of weeks against RHP. They come into this game with the highest strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks in the MLB at 29.6% and are hitting just .223. They have really only hit for some power with their .182 ISO in that span. McKenzie has thrown 6+ innings in 12 of his last 14 starts and has not allowed more than 1 ER in a start so far in July. He will look to keep up with his amazing July here in this decent matchup with Boston. GPP, but can be ALL FORMATS with how Boston has been playing
Logan Gilbert @ HOU
Gilbert has a tough matchup with the Astros here, but he did just face them and pitched very well against them, striking out 8 over 6 innings and allowing just 2 ER. In 3 starts against Houston this year, Gilbert is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA, striking out 16 over 19 innings and allowing just 5 ER while limiting hitters to a .232 batting average. Houston has been striking out a little more lately, but nothing crazy high at a 22.4% clip, but are hitting just .220 as a team against RHP. Houston has lost 3 straight games against the A’s after getting swept in Oakland and now come back home where they have played very well though. This is a risky play, but I don’t mind it on a smaller Thursday slate. GPP
Jose Urquidy vs SEA
Urquidy gets the start here again against the Mariners who he just faced in his last start. He tossed 6 innings with just 1 ER, but he has thrown better at home this season so far, getting about a strikeout per inning and allowing just .237 batting average against. Seattle does have some decent numbers against Urquidy, but he has 7 straight quality starts and I don’t mind using him on a smaller slate. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Shohei Ohtani
- Zack Wheeler
- Triston McKenzie
- Logan Gilbert
- Jose Urquidy
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Los Angeles Angels
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Cleveland Guardians
DINGER OF THE DAY
Freddie Freeman
Going back to Freeman as my dinger of the day call today. He is 14-34 against Urena in his career with 4 doubles and 4 home runs. I love the Dodgers here in Coors tonight and think that he can get a Homer tonight
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Featured Image:
May 5, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Los Angeles Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) prepares to pitch against the Boston Red Sox during the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports