Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/9:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Framber Valdez
- Brandon Woodruff
- Carlos Rodon
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-178)
Pitchers:
Marlins -Braxton Garrett
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I would like to think the Mets get to Garrett but he has surprised me recently. I definitely prefer the Mets here. Carrasco can be dominant or he can get knocked around hard. This one feels like a spot where he performs pretty well for our GPP builds.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-250)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Another great spot for the potent ATL offense on Saturday. They bombarded Fedde on Friday night and might do the same to Corbin. I am not sure about using Wright but I do think that Soto is heating up and he makes a ton of sense as a one-off play.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Luis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .085 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St Louis Cardinals (-115)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We just saw a pitcher’s duel Friday night but I have a feeling we see offensive fireworks in this one. Gibson made his last start against STL and gave up 4 HRs, in the first inning. I believe that the PHI lineup will get to Hudson and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see the total get to 9+.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Juan Yepez
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-125) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get an excellent pitching match-up but we have a few bats that can do plenty of damage in this match-up. I may play mini-stacks but mainly I just want to watch this one. We know that Ray can allow walks and that can lead to crooked numbers with all the power that TOR has.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-160) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery.
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I think this game goes over again today with the Yankees being in a great spot to continue their power barrage. I normally like to use Montgomery but I won’t be doing that today. Bogaerts has dominated him and if Devers is ok and back in the lineup, he’s swinging it so well.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .260 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-267)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Kershaw probably gives up a couple of random runs but should pull through with a solid performance and W tonight. Stroman returning from the IL is not in an ideal spot as I would think the Dodgers are licking their lips. I think I could add Lamb to the list of plays below.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-178)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Garrett Hill
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Hill really impressed me in his debut and I wouldn’t be shocked if the White Sox struggle a bit against him. He didn’t give up a hit to an RHB in his first start. Cueto probably does well enough to be in our pool of pitchers but I don’t like him all that much and the Tigers are winning games right now.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-125) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We watched Trout and Ohtani do all the work on Friday and yet the Angels managed to let the O’s come back late. Kremer has surprised this season and we know the LAA lineup has been striking out a TON. Sandoval is a pretty solid play with plenty of upside. I prefer mini-stacks in this one.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-250)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Woodruff and the Brewers are in yet another great spot. I know the Pirates have messed with some of our favorite pitchers over the course of the season but Woodruff at home feels like a really strong and safe spot. I am not sure how we attack the Pirates pitchers right now but somebody from this MIL lineup should perform.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Diego Castillo, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-160) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Hunter Greene and his massive HR issues take on a team that can K a lot but can annoy him and smacks him all over the park. Rasmussen gets a really nice spot as far as the opponent goes with how cold the Reds’ bats have been. The issue that I have is that he doesn’t have big K rates and the ballpark is tiny.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-130) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Royals – Jonathan Heasley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I don’t love stacking either of these teams but both pitchers are more than capable of giving it up early and often. McKenzie is one of those GPP guys that could absolutely dominate or he could give up 3 HRs in the first two innings of action.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona D’Backs (-120)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Freeland feels like a guy who could be a sneaky play for us today. There are a few guys that can definitely hit LHPs in this game. We need to check the status of CJ Cron after he left Friday night’s game with a wrist contusion. I think this game ends up somewhat popular from a stacking perspective.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
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Houston Astros (-335) @ Oakland A’s
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
A’s – Zach Logue
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Valdez is a massive favorite and while that means we should be all about him, I do tend to worry about letdown spots. I love the Houston bats against Logue but they will be extremely popular today. Logue has given up 7 HRs in just 24 MLB innings this season.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Jake Meyers, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We get the best pitching match-up on the day with an extremely low total. I can’t decide, at first glance, as to which SP I prefer the most. I think that Rodon has a slightly stronger floor but it’s so close. When it comes to bats, I can definitely see a one-off or two being profitable for us as HRs wouldn’t shock me in this game.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Brandon Belt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers (-120)
Pitchers:
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Perez has had a strong season but I like the Twins’ bats against him. It’s not a slam dunk spot for their bats but I have to think the Twins wake up a little bit. I think the Rangers’ bats could definitely do damage to Smeltzer but I’m not quite sure who will do the damage yet.
MIN 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Riley, Atlanta
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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