Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/31:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Dylan Cease
- Shane McClanahan
- Aaron Nola
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Philadelphia Phillies (-190) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. Nola is in an absolutely dominant spot today. The Pirates’ offense has become ridiculously weak which means my only worry is Nola being focused. The Phillies lineup let me down yesterday but I am not afraid to go back to them but maybe not quite as heavy.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-195)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Rodon could be making his last start for the Giants so I am really curious to see what he does. This game is the Sunday night one so make sure you check out our single game notes. I would NOT be shocked by a Wisdom HR while the Giants win 3-1.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Austin Voth
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. I really like Lodolo’s future but I am not sold on him against a few of the Orioles today. I realize that BAL actually hasn’t been that good against LHPs but their power in this park is intriguing. Voth is an interesting option against CIN today but one that I probably won’t gamble on.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees (-267)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I want to bet the over on HRs in this game. The Yankees roster has had decent success against Greinke and Judge just keeps hitting HRs. I could see a couple of Royals bats finding success against Montgomery but the overall lineup is rather weak.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
Oakland A’s @ Chicago White Sox (-285)
Pitchers:
A’s – Adam Oller
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I know the A’s have been surprising with plenty of power recently but that’s not going to continue against Cease. The big question is can the White Sox offense wake up and take advantage of Oller’s inability to get outs at the MLB level? I want to say yes but they haven’t looked great.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .296 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-135) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Red Sox – Josh Winckowski
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. The Brewers have a dangerous offense from a power perspective and we know that runs can happen in bunches at Fenway. I want to be on the Red Sox bats while at home, against an LHP who has struggled on the road but they aren’t performing very well at all.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .257 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (-225)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Bryan Shaw (bullpen)
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. My dude McClanahan taking the mound in a great spot. I want this guy to dominate every time he takes the mound as he has really sold me on winning a Cy Young or three in his career. The Guardians will apparently be going with some sort of a bullpen game so we need to monitor the rumblings as far as a long reliever.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
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Arizona D’Backs @ Atlanta Braves (-240)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total move down to 7.5 as the morning progresses. I am really intrigued by the pitching match-up. Kelly is coming off of an impressive start while we know how dominant Fried can be. There is definitely some power upside from bats in this one but I like the pitchers more.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I was initially thinking that we could pick on Gonsolin since I expect second-half regression but the Rockies’ bats aren’t exactly tearing it up, even at home. The Dodgers’ bats should be very popular and I can’t argue against it, even if they have been below-average the last couple.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-115) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Andre Pallante
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. While I do think there are runs scored in this one, I could see either pitcher being strong enough from a GPP perspective. We know that Gray can pick up K’s but he’s pretty volatile. Right now, I am leaning towards mini-stacks of both sides but also paying attention to trade rumors.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Yadiel Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
New York Mets (-155) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Marlins- Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7. I know that there are a handful of guys on the Mets who are rolling right now but I don’t want to pick on Lopez a whole lot. Walker is in a very good spot and he has had plenty of success against this Miami squad. If you want to ride the hot Mets bats, look at Alonso, Marte, and Lindor.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .260 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Angels – Reid Detmers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I cannot figure out what to do with this game. Both of the SPs are guys that flash being dominant but they also have been prone to get blown up. There are a few guys who have solid BvP in this one so maybe we end up relying on mini-stacks.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-292)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Garrett Hill
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am not sure how I feel about this game being the one flexed to an earlier start time. The Blue Jays are in a great spot today and they would have been extremely popular. Berrios has what it takes to be absolutely dominant but he also is the kind of pitcher to give up 6 runs to the Tigers.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harold Castro, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-140)
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is really interesting as the Mariners are nearing a point where they plan to shut down Kirby and for a young guy, he might not be totally focused. The Astros are discussing a number of trades and some involve Odorizzi because of their SP depth. I love the way HOU is swinging it but we need to pay attention to trade news too.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Pitchers:
Twins – Dylan Bundy
Padres – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think we see more offense in SD today. I know that Manaea can be dominant but I really like the MIN lineup against LHPs while we know that Bundy can get hit hard as well. Both pitchers are capable of being great but I just think today’s an offensive day.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees (sorry, it’s obvious)
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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