Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/30:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Framber Valdez
- Ranger Suarez
- Carlos Carrasco
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Philadelphia Phillies (-160) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I am interested in Suarez against the weak PIT lineup while I think there are a few PHI bats with strong BvP against Keller. It’s not a game that I am overly excited about attacking but the PHI lineup can certainly win us money today.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-130)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We have to pay attention to the Cubs lineup as a handful of guys could be dealt over the next couple of days. The Giants lineup has struggled so we really should be considering both SPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .250 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Yermin Mercedes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .079 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds (-115)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. I know that the Reds are favored but I prefer the Orioles’ side in this one. Kremer has impressed me enough this season while Mahle has had his struggles at home. I always use bats playing in Cincinnati.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees (-285)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jonathan Heasley
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I don’t think Cortes keeps up All-Star form but he could be serviceable in this one. The problem is Perez and Merrifield have had plenty of success against him. The Yankees are in a GREAT spot and Judge probably hits yet another HR today.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
Oakland A’s @ Chicago White Sox (-178)
Pitchers:
A’s – Paul Blackburn
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The A’s are swinging it really well right now (something I never expected to write this season). Blackburn was an All-Star so he definitely could make it tough on the White Sox. The CWS lineup should be performing SOOO much better but I just can’t figure out what their problem is.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 10. We get a double-digit total in BOS with a couple of pitchers that can give up some HRs. This feels like a great spot to get multiple versions of a game stack and hope you pick up 6 HRs like the MIN-SD game on Friday night.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (-125)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. As a Twins fan, I need the Rays and Kluber to come out and dominate. Kluber is certainly a better pitcher than Plesac is but the TB lineup isn’t better than CLE’s, for some reason. I have no desire to stack either side and will only be using guys as one-off options.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
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Arizona D’Backs @ Atlanta Braves (-235)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Corbin Martin
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Anderson flashes dominant stuff but the issues come when teams are patient and he racks up a pitch count while walking guys. He’s in a great spot to pick up a win behind his offense and Austin Riley.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. I would guess we see some runs in this one and I hate predicting that Kershaw is going to give some up. I like the Rockies against LHPs and a few of them have had success against Kershaw. On the other side, Freeland can surprise but I love the way most of LA is swinging it.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Gavin Lux, Trayce Thompson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-155) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The baseball world is waiting on Soto to be dealt but I have a feeling it won’t happen in the season. I definitely want STL stack exposure against Fedde tonight. Hudson could be a sneaky SP2 on DK tonight.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
New York Mets (-125) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Marlins- Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information and the Marlins’ pitching plans. Carrasco could be a GPP winner tonight as we know how weak the overall MIA lineup is. I want to be on the Mets after they did some damage to Alcantara on Friday.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-120)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Angels – Chase Silseth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am shocked to see a total of just 8 in this one. Both of the pitchers are capable of getting knocked around but they have also shown flashes of positive performances. I want the TEX LHBs against Silseth, far more than the RHBs at this point. I think both teams offer interesting mini-stack combos.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-267)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Drew Hutchison
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The TOR bats let us down on Friday but I think they bounce back and win people money today. Baez has dominated Stripling but Ross should be in a great spot. Matt Chapman just keeps hitting HRs right now.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-195)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I love the BvP in HOU’s favor and Alvarez is definitely going deep tonight. The Mariners have some buzz with the acquisition of Luis Castillo but Framber has been very strong against the SEA roster.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres (-135)
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. After the HR fest last night (mainly SD), I think we see far less offense tonight. Machado has owned Gray in their careers while guys like Buxton and Hosmer could be surprises in GPP winning lineups.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Yordan Alvarez, Houston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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