Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/29:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Alek Manoah
- Gerrit Cole
- Shane Bieber
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Philadelphia Phillies (-125) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Phillies – Bailey Falter
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. We should pay attention to the trade winds today as Quintana is a name that could get scratched. Alec Bohm is absolutely rolling right now, finding himself in the 3 spot last night. He’s going to be one of my favorite one-offs on the slate, no matter who takes the mound for PIT tonight.
PHI 5-star plays: Alec Bohm
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-140)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Cubs have swung the power bats recently but they shouldn’t do a ton of damage in SF. The Giants lineup has struggled and that could continue with a decent Stroman outing. I keep waiting for Joc Pederson to get hot at the plate so I will continue to add him to my one-off pool.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .250 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Luis Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .079 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Orioles – Undecided
Reds – Mike Minor
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Minor hasn’t been good but the Orioles aren’t the greatest against LHPs. The ballpark will help as far as offense goes in this game and if the Orioles go with an LHP, then I could see CIN being a sneaky spot for some runs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees (-365)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cole lines up in a GREAT spot, especially if Witt continues to be out for KC. Judge just keeps hitting HRs and I have to think that continues tonight against Bubic. Donaldson has been struggling but he’s had some power success against Bubic in his career.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: MJ Melendez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
Oakland A’s @ Chicago White Sox (-205)
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kaprielian
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The White Sox return home after a series in Coors so I want to play the wait and see game with them at this point. Grandal has returned from the IL and been pretty strong at the plate so he makes a great one-off C play. Lynn hasn’t been great but he gets a weak opponent, despite the fact that OAK has been swinging it really well recently.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Stephen Piscotty, Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-170) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Bello has been terrible at the MLB level despite dominating in the minors this season. He gets a MIL team that I don’t think is very strong overall but has been really swinging the power bat over the last week. Boston’s lineup has been pretty blah and Woodruff is a top tier type SP but I am always afraid of using SPs against Boston when they are at home.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (-115)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We get a strong SP match-up, which is weird to write considering TB has Springs taking the mound. Since I started this article, the total has moved to 7 but that’s not a ringing endorsement of bats in this game. The pitchers will have my attention and that’s basically it from this one.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
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Arizona D’Backs @ Atlanta Braves (-220)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am shocking myself with my interest in the D’Backs bats, mainly just the 3 guys listed below. They all come in swinging it well with some mild success against Wright, in limited at-bats. The majority of the ATL lineup hasn’t had much for success against Bumgarner but I really love them against LHPs. This feels like a game to stack on DK with 5 ATL bats and 2-3 ARI bats.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: William Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Speaking of game stacks, we get another Coors game after the Dodgers put up 13 last night. I am a huge Urias fan but a handful of the COL bats have hit him well and are very solid against LHPs. Kuhl has had some success against LA but they are just rolling at the plate right now.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-190) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Nationals – Anibal Sanchez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Cardinals get Goldschmidt and Arenado back and they are both in great spots against the artist formerly known as Anibal Sanchez (same name, different pitcher these days). Soto feels like somebody who might show off a bit but I still am not sure if he gets traded over the next few days.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
New York Mets (-125) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Marlins- Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I definitely don’t want to pick on Alcantara but Alonso is absolutely scorching hot at the plate and Lindor has had success against him. They are two guys that might be worth a GPP share or two to be different. Bassitt is in a great spot against the Marlins lineup but I don’t consider him to be safe at this point. He made 3 straight starts against MIA and gave up 8 runs in those 3 starts.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels (-115)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I think this is a game that definitely can play to the under tonight. I don’t have a ton of confidence in either side in terms of a full stack but there are a few bats that make sense to me. Adolis Garcia is swinging it pretty well so I am tempted to move him to a 5-Star play. Ohtani is ALWAYS dangerous, even against an LHP.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-400)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Undecided
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Toronto bats are rolling while the Tigers offer one of the lowest IRT’s on the slate against Manoah. At this point, I don’t think it matters who DET rolls out to the mound as the Blue Jays should be a very popular option again tonight.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-178)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Despite the match-up between 2 Cy Young winners, we get some favorable BvP from some guys tonight. With that said, I have no desire to stack this game much but I do think there will be a few HRs hit. Altuve has absolutely dominated Robbie Ray so far.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres (-120)
Pitchers:
Twins – Joe Ryan
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gary Sanchez is 6 for 20 against Snell with 5 HRs. Those numbers seem very attractive to me but Sanchez is so hard to trust especially while slumping a bit. I actually think that Ryan is a decent play against a struggle SD lineup while the Twins bats could be a sneaky spot for upside tonight.
MIN 5-star plays: Jose Miranda
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Esteury Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Toronto Blue Jays
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jose Miranda, Minnesota
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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