Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We have plenty of games again today, though they are split into smaller slates this time. No matter what time of the day you want to play, we’ve got you covered. There’s plenty to go over, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
As usual, we have a wide range of options with a day full of games, though they are separated this time. As far as upside goes, we have five pitchers with 500+ KSCOREs in the early games and 4 of them in the main slate. We even have two with 600+ KSCOREs, and as you could probably guess, that would be Scherzer and Javier. Overall, there are plenty of good places to go, and a few landmines to avoid, so be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most (and least) interested in today.
Early games
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off with one of the two early games, this one between the Braves and Phillies. Morton and Gibson will get the start, and the 8.5 total that Vegas gave seems pretty reasonable. I do think the Braves will prevail, as Vegas is predicting.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Olson/Harris
GPP note – Another good spot for these bats, Gibson allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate, so you can go with pretty much anybody here.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Gregorious, Hoskins/Realmuto
GPP note – Morton has been tough but does allow some good power to lefties, so don’t be afraid to take a bat or two against him here. I don’t think I’d go with huge stacks, though.
San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers
Our next early game will be between Darvish and Skubal, with the Padres taking on the Tigers. I think this one is pretty self-explanatory, but if you want to get funky, you could always roll out some Detroit stacks.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Profar/Kim
GPP note – A mostly average matchup, Skubal does allow a good chunk of power to righties, so definitely take some of them in this spot. He’s pretty strict to lefties though, so going contrarian may or may not pay off.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Candelario
GPP note – A pretty bad matchup, Darvish has been on his game for the most part and I don’t see the Tigers getting to him here. He does allow the occasional power to righties, so you could try your luck there if you really wanted to.
Early slate
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
Moving on to the early slate, we’ll start with Archer and the Twins taking on Burnes and the Brewers. While Burnes doesn’t have quite as easy of a matchup as Darvish did, he is still the favorite here and carries a healthy KSCORE, so I don’t know that this game will be one to go off the rails.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays – Buxton/Polanco/Correa
GPP note – Righties get the power advantage here, though Burnes isn’t really allowing a ton. You could always take a few bats against him, but I wouldn’t go overboard.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich/Tellez, Adames/Renfroe/McCutchen
GPP note – Archer has been okay, but righties are hitting him for a lot more xwOBA than lefties are, so that might be a good place to attack him.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Junk and the Angels taking on Keller and my Royals. Though we get two cheap pitchers here, I don’t know that we’ll hit that 9.0 total that Vegas is offering, but we’ll see. Ohtani aside, I think Keller can hold his own here, and the volatile KC bats may take care of things for Junk and the Angels’ bullpen.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Stassi
GPP note – Keller has been surprisingly stingy (being a KC pitcher after all), and these guys aren’t hitting righties all that well (outside of the two above), so this might not be the best place to attack today.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Witt/Merrifield, Melendez
GPP note – A questionable of a matchup that one can ask for, these bats can be pretty questionable too. Stacking here is the same as throwing darts, but hey, at least they won’t be chalky.
Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head over to Denver for our Coors game, with Giolito and the White Sox taking on Senzatela and the Rockies. We got a nice tasty dud from both teams yesterday, so we’ll see what they can do today. If nothing else, that matchup looks mighty fine for Chicago, and they have some cheap bats, so I’m sure people will go back to them.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Vaughn/Abreu
GPP note – They were a bust yesterday, but they’ve got a tasty matchup here. All of the bats are in play here, but will they come through this time?
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon, Cron/Bryant
GPP note – Giolito can be tough, but he’s allowing plenty of power and will have to pitch at Coors. I wouldn’t be afraid to attack him here (everybody else will be, too), but perhaps some hedging could be useful, too.
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Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Moving on to our (early) late games, we first get Corbin and the Nationals taking on Heaney and the Dodgers. We haven’t seen much of Heaney this season, but what we have seen has been pretty solid, and he’ll look to keep that going here. Corbin, on the other hand, has not, so the Dodgers will look to tee off against him here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Cruz/Thomas
GPP note – Heaney looked okay in his return, though I think a few of these bats can get to him as they try to build on last night’s win (I totally called it). The four above seem to be the best options of the bunch.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman, Turner/Turner
GPP note – Corbin is allowing plenty to righties, and I’m sure they’ll be eager to jump on him here. Most of these bats are hitting for power against lefties, so pretty much the entire lineup is in play.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
Javier and the Astros take on Irvin and the Athletics next, and this is another one where I don’t think we’ll get too many surprises. Javier will probably be the chalk on this slate, though for good reason. The more interesting question could be, which Houston bats might come in at lower ownership than the others?
Astros 5 star plays -Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Alvarez
GPP note – A good matchup for these bats, traditional splits seem to be the way to go against Irvin, though I wouldn’t shy away from the power lefties.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Pinder
GPP note – A pretty crappy matchup (perhaps the worst on the day), Javier does allow some power to righties, so if you’re running any contrarian stacks, be sure to include some of those.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
We get the Giants and Diamondbacks next, with Webb and Gallen to get the start. We have a lowly 7.5 total here, and even that might be a bit high. Whatever it winds up being, I think we’ll see the under, so do with that what you will.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Flores
GPP note – Most of these bats (sans the two above) are hitting for low power against righties, but Gallen is allowing some to both sides. I’d probably stick to smaller stacks, but you could always try your luck with a larger stack to leverage some ownership.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte
GPP note – A worse matchup for these bats, at best I would treat them the same as above, but I’d probably just look elsewhere today.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
We’ll wrap up the early slate with the Rangers and Mariners, with Gray and Gonzales on the mound. Both teams share a 4.0 total to start, though I think the Texas one is a touch lower than it should be. I guess we’ll see how that goes, but I see them having some fun in this one.
Rangers 5 star plays – Seager
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien, Taveras/Heim
GPP note – A nice matchup for these bats, I suspect they’ll go over the 4.0 IRT that Vegas gave them to start off the day with. Gonzales allows equal power to both sides, so it doesn’t matter where you go here in terms of hand matchup.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Santana/Rodriguez
GPP note – Gray has been pitching pretty well, so I think their 4.0 IRT is a bit more reasonable. He allows moderate power to lefties, but not much else, so I’d be a little more careful here.
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Main slate
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Moving on to the main slate, we’ll start with Garrett and the Marlins taking on Castillo and the Reds. If they play (it looks like a coin flip at this point, so keep an eye on the weather), I don’t think there will be much coming from the Marlins’ camp, so maybe they’re hoping a postponement.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Wendle
GPP note – Not a very exciting matchup to start off this slate, so I’d probably look elsewhere unless you want some really low-owned bats.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Drury, Votto
GPP note – While not the best matchup we have on the day, Garrett does allow some decent power to righties, so you can attack him there.
New York Yankees at New York Mets
Next up we get our New York game, featuring German and the Yankees set to take on Scherzer and the Mets. This one has hedging written all over it, or perhaps some deep-diving will be necessary to find the best place to take a stand. Why not let our coaches do that for you?
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 3.5 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Carpenter/Rizzo
GPP note – We get some power bats against a power arm. This is a golden hedge opportunity if I ever saw one, as there’s a good chance one side of this matchup will put up some solid numbers.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 3.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso, Vogelbach/Nimmo/Escobar
GPP note – These bats can get it done too, but since we don’t know where German is as of yet, it’s hard to know exactly what to do here. Why not consider hedging here, too?
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Rasmussen and the Rays will take on Wells and the Orioles next, another game with a not-so-exciting 7.5 total. That’s certainly not due to overpowering pitchers, as neither one of them are, so perhaps Vegas thinks these bats will be a bit sleepy.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena
GPP note – Wells is a decent target to attack, but he’s actually allowing much more to righties than he is lefties. Use some RvR bats here to gain some ownership leverage.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Rutschman, Hays/Mateo/Odor
GPP note – There are certainly better places to stack today, but I don’t mind a few mini-stacks here due to the modest xwOBA Rasmussen is allowing to lefties.
St Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll head across the border for our next matchup, this one between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. Wainwright and Gausman will get the start here, and I think Vegas has this one set the same way I (and probably most of us) see it playing out. Maybe things would look a little different in St Louis, but it is what it is.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Pujols
GPP note – This wouldn’t be a bad place to attack if they had their normal lineup, but alas, they do not. Consider some mini-stacks, but probably not much more.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman/Gurriel
GPP note – Wainwright allows a lot to righties, and wouldn’t you know it, we have an entire lineup of them here. Feel free to grab stacks of any size here.
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Quantrill and the Guardians taking on Eovaldi and the Red Sox. We get a 9 total here, and while I’m not sure how I feel about that just yet, I’m leaning towards seeing the under here. I think that’ll mostly depend on which Eovaldi shows up – or the Boston offense, for that matter.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Rosario/Ramirez
GPP note – Eovaldi has had a rough July thus far, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to attack him again here as he sometimes has troubles coming out of his funks.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Martinez
GPP note – These guys need a pick-me-up, and perhaps Quantrill’s low strikeout rate and decent amount of power given up to lefties will get them going.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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