Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Scherzer
- Shohei Ohtani
- Lucas Giolito
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Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Pirates – Undecided (Jose Quintana is the current rumor)
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We get two offenses that just aren’t very dangerous. Quintana might be making his last PIT start so there’s some motivation to be great if he’s the one on the mound. Garrett has started to look really good out there and he’s somebody that I am really considering as my DK SP2.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .043 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Marisnick, Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .069 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Philadephia Phillies (-130)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I want to be on Gibson but there have been so many times that he’s crapped the bed for us in a great spot. I like offenses in this ballpark, even against decent pitching. Speaking of decent pitching, Steele is one of those under the radar arms that can pop up and win you some money.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .042 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-140) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Ashcraft allowed 4 runs on 9 hits in just 4.2 innings against STL earlier in the season. The game total is really interesting but it sucks that this game isn’t on the main slate. Wainwright could definitely do some damage but there are a few CIN bats with strong BvP.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
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Tampa Bay Rays (-125) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Royals – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I am seeing rumors that the Royals will go with Brad Keller but nothing official as of this morning. I am kind of interested in the Rays as they are getting healthier and finished the first half swinging it decently. Rasmussen feels like a lower-end SP2 option on DK tonight and that might be enough.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox (-155)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Giolito has some pretty severe reverse splits but he’s also a guy that’s being talked about as having a huge second half coming up. I want to believe the White Sox are going to go on a run but they weren’t that great in the first half. Moncada looked to be heating up a bit prior to the break.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-115) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I am really torn on this game because we get pitching that can dominate while we also get hitters that can beat up anybody they face. Gausman has thrown 21 innings against BOS this season and has allowed just 1 run while striking out 27 hitters. Those are some extremely dominant numbers.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Atlanta Braves (-155)
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We have two great pitching match-ups tonight and this is the sneaky one of the two. We know how dominant Ohtani has been over his last 6 starts (4 straight with 10+ Ks), but look at how much of a favorite Morton is tonight. The Angels lineup has been really weak and Trout is on the IL so they are even weaker. I am trying to not over think this one tonight.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .065 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Michael Harris
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)
Pitchers:
Giants – Logan Webb
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I actually think we see more runs in this than Vegas is thinking. Webb has been more of a contact pitcher on the road and the Dodgers are rolling at the plate so it’s tough to think he goes into LA and dominates. Anderson was just lit up in the All-Star game and there’s a handful of guys in the Giants lineup that have been swinging it well and can hit LHPs really well.
SF 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores
4-star plays: Darin Ruf, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-160) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Yankees just lost a doubleheader to the Astros yesterday and I think they come out with a little bit of urgency in this one (HOU is just a game or two behind them now). Taillon is capable of shutting anybody down but this Baltimore squad finished the first half rolling. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the total creep to 9.5 and maybe even 10 as the day goes on.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Arizona D’Backs
Pitchers:
Nationals – Undecided
D’Backs- Zac Gallen
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I am seeing some rumors that Patrick Corbin will be starting for WSH but nothing official. Gallen feels like a great play with all the uncertainty around this Washington squad. I would actually be intrigued by Corbin somewhat should he get the start since the ARI lineup is still really weak overall. Soto should come out hot after a very successful HR derby performance.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow (if Corbin pitches), Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
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Texas Rangers (-115) @ Oakland A’s
Pitchers:
Rangers – Spencer Howard
A’s – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Rangers just got to Pablo Lopez on Thursday so I am not sure that Irvin is going to be able to contain the Rangers. I know the game has a 7 total but I think there’s going to be some runs. Howard has looked decent in his last 2 starts but he has more walks than strikeouts over those 2 starts, which doesn’t really make me feel great about him being able to put up a GPP winning score.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (-278)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I want to be about the Brewers because Senzatela just is not good but the Brewers lineup hasn’t been very good and the total is still just a 7. Adames feels like a guy that probably hits a bomb tonight since Senzatela is a slight reverse splits pitcher (he gives it up to both sides). Burnes should absolutely dominate in this start with double-digit K upside.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kris Bryant or Ryan McMahon (not stacking against Burnes)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-120) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Mariners have absolutely dominated Urquidy this season, putting up 17 runs on 27 hits in just 13 innings (3 starts). There’s a lot of BvP to love in this game and it’s going to end up my favorite game to target tonight. Maybe I am a bit insane to stack a game in Seattle but I’ve never been told that I was intelligent!
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Ty France, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .179 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (-190)
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Mets – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I am a bit shocked to see Scherzer and the Mets as such a huge favorite but it actually does make sense. This is the best pitching match-up on the slate, though the total has moved to 7 since I began putting this article together. Darvish has allowed an average of .305 on the road this season to go with his ERA of 5.25 away from SD. Scherzer is just his normal, dominant self. We have learned that Scherzer will give up a solo HR or two at times.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Seattle Mariners
- Houston Astros
- San Francisco Giants
MLB Dinger of the Day – Julio Rodriguez, Seattle
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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