Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jun 25, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray (40) pitches against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Josiah Gray O 30.5fpt
WAS vs MIA
The Nationals start a series against the Marlins today. Josiah Gray will be facing them for the fourth time this season. He has recorded 10, 7, and 6 strikeouts in those starts. Usually, a repeat matchup favors the hitting. However, Jazz Chisholm was placed on the IL recently. He is an All-Star candidate this season. Gray struggles vs LHBs. This could leave the Marlins with only one lefty in Jesus Sanchez in the lineup. Gray is going to have a much softer lineup to deal with today. Marlins are worse on the road than they are at home with a 92 wRC+ which ranks 22nd in the league. Washington should win this game against Trevor Rodgers. Gray has the strikeout stuff and both the quality start and win very well in play for him today.
Cesar Hernandez O 0.5r+rbi
WAS vs MIA
Trevor Rogers has struggled this season. He pitches a little worse on the road going back to last year. Hernandez hits for a higher average from the right side. He will be doing that against the lefty Rogers. Lane Thomas typically leads off when a lefty is on the mound. Hernandez hits behind him. He has a higher chance of batting with runners on base compared if he were to lead off and having to hit following the bottom of the lineup. The best hitters, Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Bell all follow. I like the chances of this trio doing damage against Rogers today especially in 91 degree heat and 10mph winds blowing out. Hernandez has a 7% walk rate but this number should increase as he has had a higher walk rate than this for most of his career. Rogers walks 10.7% of batters which ranks in the 19th percentile.
Corbin Burnes O 43.5fpt
MIL @ PIT
Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Pittsburgh has a pretty different lineup today than the one they started the season with. This is a pitcher’s ballpark. Burnes has had better splits on the road than at home for the past two years. This stadium suppresses right handed power. Pittsburgh has a 23.1% strikeout rate, which ranks 7th-most. Burnes ranks in the 93rd percentile for Ks, 98th in whiff, and 95th in chase rate. The Pirates will stack lefties against Burnes but he has done a good job limiting home runs to that side of the plate. Milwaukee should be able to score off of Roansy Contreras and the bullpen behind him. This will put Burnes in a position to record those 10 points from the quality start and win.
Jose Berrios O 4.5k
TOR vs TB
Berrios has been a disappointment this season. He is getting hit a ton. Some of the Toronto starters have struggled including Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. Gausman thought he was tipping pitches and used a bigger glove to hide the baseball. Kikuchi pitched extremely well on Thursday. Hopefully, Berrios figures it out too today. He will be at home where he has performed a lot better in this season. This was the case as well when he was on Cincinnati. Tampa Bay strikes out 25.6% against RHPs on the road which is 4th-most. They have a 88 wRC+ which is 25th. They continue to deal with injuries so this is not the Rays best lineup.
Jessie Winker O 1.5h+bb
SEA vs OAK
Keep an eye on if Winker is in the lineup tonight. JP Crawford started serving his suspension on Thursday. If Winker is good to go, he is in a great spot vs James Kaprielian. Kaprielian has a 11% walk rate which ranks in the 16th percentile. Winker has a 15.5% walk rate which is in the 99th percentile. Kaprielian is a flyball pitcher who actually has induced his highest groundball rate of his career this season at 40.9%. Winker continues to reduce his groundball rate which is now down to 36.7%. We do not need Winker to hit a ball into the gap or over the fence but he is in a great spot to make solid contact. Seattle does not have the best hitter’s park but Kaprielian will be forced out of pitcher friendly RingCentral Coliseum.
Just missed the cut: Jeremy Pena O 0.5r+rbi
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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