MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (7 Games)
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Aaron Nola vs ATL (DK MAIN SLATE ONLY)
This game is only on the DraftKings main slate tonight locking at 6pm est. I do like how Nola has thrown lately for the Phillies too. He has thrown over 6 innings in 6 straight starts and 11 of his last 15 starts. Nola has shown some massive upside for the Phillies of late. Facing the Braves isn’t an easy matchup for Nola, but he did just face them at the end of May and he scored 37.2 DK points in that start, throwing 8.1 innings with 10 K’s. Alot of guys on this Braves team have some good history against Nola, but they still have a 30% strikeout rate against him. Guys like Acuna, d’Arnaud, Duvall, Ozuna, and Riley all have more than 1 HR against Nola. He still has massive upside though with ATL striking out 26% of the time against RHP in the last 2 weeks. LEAN GPP, BUT DON’T MIND IN CASH
Luis Severino @ HOU (DK MAIN SLATE ONLY)
Severino just faced these Astros in his last start and he was able to strikeout 7 in 6 innings. Again, not an easy matchup here for Sevvy, but he has over 7 K’s in his last 5 starts and 7 of his last 8 starts. Houston is obvisouly a tough matchup and these teams just played a hard series in the Bronx last weekend. The strikeouts can be there as he just showed, but Houston’s offense is rolling at the plate right now so there is a ton of risk. He’s not super cheap on DK either. GPP
Graham Ashcraft @ CHC
Ashcraft had a great bounce back start last time out against the Giants after struggling in two starts against the Cards and Brewers. CHC comes into this game with a 23.9% strikeout rate against RHP. THey obviously have power, but with an ISO of just .122 over the last couple of weeks. Outside of those two rough starts, Ashcraft has looked pretty good for the Reds this season in 7 starts. We have a smaller slate here on this Thursday night, so we need some options especially on DraftKings where we need to start 2 pitchers. GPP
Logan Gilbert vs OAK
Gilbert is one guy I don’t mind using in cash games tonight. He has a good matchup with the A’s tonight at home. In 6 starts at home, Gilbert has just about a strikeout per inning and he’s allowing just a .217 batting average against. Oakland struggled in the series against the Yankees where they got swept and they come into this game with a 24.2% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .217 and still have under a .100 ISO. I like Gilbert’s upside here tonight on a small slate. ALL FORMATS
Joe Musgrove @ LAD
Tough matchup for the Padres here where they come into this series 1.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. Musgrove is ppitching like he’s going to compete for the NL Cy Young this season too. He got roughed up in his last start against the Phillies, but before that rolled off 12 straight QS to start the season. He has a quality start in all but his last start this year. LAD comes into this game with only a 22% strikeout rate and their offense is very dangerous, but Musgrove has been really good on the road, allowing just a .194 batting average against and striking out just under a batter per inning. The Dodgers roster is hitting just .193 against Musgrove in their c areer with a 22% strikeout rate, which isn’t huge, but they haven’t had much success against him outside of Freeman and Muncy (and Muncy has been terrible this year). I like Musgrove’s upside here. LEAN GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Logan Gilbert
- Joe Musgrove
- Aaron Nola (DK ONLY)
- Joe Musgrove
- Graham Ashcraft
- Luis Severino (DK ONLY)
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Miluwakee Brewers
- Cincinnati Reds
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Tampa Bay Rays
- San Diego Padres
DINGER OF THE DAY
Joey Votto
Votto has been a killer of Kyle Hendricks over his career. He is 15-38 with 5 HR and 3 doubles with 15 walks. He has such a good eye and can take walks. This season he hasn’t been amazing, but has 5 doubles over his last week. Votto hasn’t hit a HR in awhile, but the history against Hendricks is intriguing to me.
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Featured Image:
June 25, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports