MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (9 games Fanduel) EARLY SLATE ON DRAFTKINGS
***DraftKings and Fanduel are never on the same page with slates. Fanduel has a 9 game main slate locking at 4pm, while DraftKings has a bigger early slate and smaller 5 game main slate. This article will break down the MAIN slate on Fanduel, but EARLY on DraftKings***
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Justin Verlander vs CWS
Verlander has been great for the Astros of late. Aside from his bad start against Seattle, he’s rolled off good games in 7 of his last 8 starts. Verlander has been outstanding at home this season, with a 1.65 ERA going 4-0 and having over a K per inning. His last 2 home starts he has thrown 14 innings with 19 strikeouts and allowed just 1 ER. Chicago has a lot of power in their lineup, but I still think Verlander has another good start here. The White Sox are middle of the pack with a 21.5% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Moncada will likely miss this game after he left yesterday with hamstring issues. ALL FORMATS
Aaron Nola @ WSH
Big double header yesterday where we saw a good amount of runs. Nola is in a spot to shut down this Washington offense. He’s been better in his last 2 starts, going 15 innings but only has 12 K’s. Washington is an offense that doesn’t strikeout that much though so there is some worry here. Typically a better pitcher at home, Nola has been a bit better on the road this year. He isn’t allowing as many HR on the road either and is just over a K per inning on the road. This Washington team has just a .175 batting average against Nola in their career with only 9 XBH in 90 ABs. ALL FORMATS
Patrick Sandoval @ SEA
Seattle has been striking out a bit more against LHP in the last couple of weeks than they were earlier this year. They come into this game with a 25% strikeout rate against lefties, hitting just .202 with an ISO of .106. They have some guys who have tons of power against lefties, but they haven’t been showing it lately. Sandoval has been good on the road this year, allowing just 6 ER and not allowing a HR yet. Lefties aren’t doing much against him, and righties don’t have the greatest numbers either. He had a good bounce back start last time out against a tough Mets lineup, where he struck out 8 hitters over 6 innings and allowed just 2 ER. He did allow a ton of baserunners, but was able to keep them from scoring most of the time. GPP
Jeffrey Springs @ BAL
Springs has been solid of late for the Rays and has not allowed more than 2 ER in 7 straight starts. Baltimore is a team that can hit against lefties, but Springs has been good at limiting damage. He’s been striking out about a batter per inning in his last few starts too. We saw a low 1-0 game last night between these teams and Baltimore’s offense can struggle at times. On the road this season, he has 4 games started with 7 total appearances and he’s been really good, allowing just a .174 batting average against with 27 K’s in 25 innings. I do like his upside against Baltimore when he tossed 5.2 shutout innings against them with 7 K’s last time out. GPP
Alex Wood @ PIT
I wrote up Rodon yesterday and he had a wonderful start for the Giants. Well, right back to Giants pitching in this matchup against the Pirates who come into this game with a 27.9% strikeout rate against LHP, hitting just .204 with an ISO of .105 against lefties. Wood has had his struggles this season, but he has been much better of late. Not a big strikeout guy, but the upside for him to get a few extra K’s in this start is there. He’s also pretty cheap here on Fanduel too. ALL FORMATS
Chris Flexen vs LAA
We saw Robbie Ray no-hit these Angels for almost 7 innings yesterday. Flexen isn’t as good as Robbie Ray, but he does have some upside in this matchup, especially if he can get a few extra strikeouts. Yes, the Angels on paper are dangerous, with Ward, Trout, and Ohtani in the top 3, but they still have a 30.8% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and just 6% walk rate. Flexen isn’t a big guy that we can trust in cash games, but I don’t mind using him in GPPs with the strikeout upside that’s in this Angels lineup on a daily basis. GPP
Graham Ashcraft vs MIL
This is a strict MME type play for me today. Ashcraft has been much better at home this year in 3 starts compared to his 2 road starts. He isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he’s faced some really tough offenses in his 5 starts this year. He had to face Toronto, San Fran, Washington, and St. Louis. The one start he didn’t face a great offense he scored 40 FD points. The Brewers come into this game striking out 25.8% of the time against right-handed pitching, while hitting .232 and an ISO of .130. I like his upside here in GPPs and do think he can surpass the 30 point mark on Fanduel this afternoon. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Justin Verlander
- Alex Wood
- Aaron Nola
- Jeffrey Springs
- Patrick Sandoval
- Chris Flexen
- Graham Ashcraft
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Tampa Bay Rays
- New York Mets
- Kansas City Royals
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Houston Astros
DINGER OF THE DAY
Jun 14, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Randy Arozarena (56) prior to the start of the game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports
Randy Arozarena
The Rays should be able to explode tonight against the Orioles and Kyle Bradish. He hasn’t been great over the last few games, but against RHP this season he has 6 home-runs and has been better on the road against RHP than at home. Comes into this game with an ISO of .177 against righties this season too. I’m still not sure why Bradish is still pitching in the Majors. Bradish has allowed 9 HR this season against righties with a .388 batting average against and .488 wOBA. Arozarena has massive upside in this game here today.
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Featured Image:
Jun 15, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) watches the game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros during the third inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports