MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (11 games)
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Carlos Rodon @ PIT
Rodon had a good bounce-back game against the Dodgers, but this matchup is much easier for Rodon against the Pirates. PIT comes into this game with a 27.7% strikeout rate against LHP in the last 2 weeks. They are hitting just .193 in that span. Rodon has struggled a bit more on the road this season, but he’s still at about a strikeout per inning and has massive upside in this matchup tonight. ALL FORMATS
Zack Thompson vs SFG
This is a strict GPP/MME type play for me tonight. He’s been decent at times this year for the Pirates. The worry is that the Giants have a ton of upside and ton of power. Thompson has only made it 6 innings in 1 of his starts this year, but had some outings out of the bullpen. His last 3 starts against LAD, ARI, and ATL he has allowed just 4 ER in 15.2 innings. Thompson isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but he’s dirt cheap and if he can go 5 innings with a few strikeouts he could still score well. SFG comes into this game with a 24% strikeout rate against RHP and the bottom of their lineup has a ton of K’s in it.GPP ONLY
Carlos Carrasco vs MIA
Carrasco is coming off a tough start against the Angels, but still was able to manage 7 strikeouts in that start over 4.2 innings. His strikeout numbers have been up over his last few starts which is something that I do really like. His home/road splits are also pretty notable. At home, he has allowed just 1 HR in 35.2 innings and is at about a strikeout per inning while allowing a .233 batting average against. The Marlins come into this game with a bunch of power against RHP, but they are striking out at a 24.4% rate to righties in the last 2 weeks. The Marlins roster only has 2 HR off Carrasco in their careers with a 30% strikeout rate. ALL FORMATS
Adam Wainwright @ BOS
Waino has had an up and down season at times, but his ups have been really good. He has thrown 7 innings in 5 of his last 7 starts too. HIs strikeout numbers aren’t really going to be there, but he has done a decent job in limiting damage, despite allowing a bunch of hits. Boston isn’t an easy matchup either but he’s cheaper and I don’t mind taking some risks with the veteran in tournaments. GPP
Tarik Skubal vs TEX
Skubal has been pretty good at home this year so far and has a decent matchup tonight against the Rangers. The Rangers do have some power against lefties, but Skubal has been good for most of the season for the Tigers. He had a very tough matchup against Toronto last time out where he struggled, but before that he was extremely good. Skubal has thrown 7+ innings in 4 of his last 7 starts and the strikeout numbers have been there. Over the last 2 weeks, the Rangers have a 23% strikeout rate against LHP. LEAN GPP
Jon Gray @ DET
On the other side of this game is Jon Gray. I like him more in all formats given his price and this matchup with Detroit. The Tigers have been so bad of late and they have a 28% strikeout rate against RHP with a .185 batting average and .056 ISO. The upside for Gray is definitely there and he has shown that he can rack up the strikeouts at times. I will be using Gray in cash games tonight too at his cheaper price tag. ALL FORMATS
MacKenzie Gore @ COL
Tough matchup in Coors here for Gore, but ma he has so much upside against Colorado. COL comes into this game with just a 21% strikeout rate against LHP, but they are hitting just .210 and have an ISO of .093. He really struggled against the Rockies in his last start, allowing 6 ER in just 2.1 innings. But before that he had some really good starts and has only allowed 3 ER or more in 2 starts on the season. I do like his upside here with the strikeout numbers he has shown this season at times too. GPP
Frankie Montas vs KCR
Montas has some big home/road splits so far on the season. He also has been better pitching at night too. At home, Montas has allowed just 18 ER in 57.2 innings as apposed to 11 ER in 19 innings. He’s allowing a .206 batting average against at home and has 64 strikeouts over 57.2 innings. I like the matchup with the Royals here as they have been struggling at the plate this season. He is a bit expensive, but I do like the matchup here for him at home. ALL FORMATS
Robbie Ray vs LAA
Even though the Angels are getting healthy, I still don’t mind using Ray in tournaments here tonight. Coming into this game, the Angels still have a 29.5% strikeout rate against LHP in the last 2 weeks and are hitting just .128 as a team. They obviously have some dangerous hitters against left-handed pitching in Ward and Trout, but outside of those 2, I’m not too worried about the rest of their offense. Ray hasn’t been too bad against RHB so far this year and has been striking out guys a little more of late nad is over a K per inning this year. He also has been better at home this season too, allowing a .204 batting average against with a K per inning and only 4 HR at home compared to 10 HR on the road. LEAN GPP, but don’t mind in ALL FORMATS
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Carlos Rodon
- Carlos Carrasco
- Jon Gray
- Frankie Montas
- Robbie Ray
- Tarik Skubal
- MacKenzie Gore
- Adam Wainwright
- Zack Thompson
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- San Diego Padres
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Oakland Athletics
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Los Angeles Dodgers
DINGER OF THE DAY
May 8, 2022; San Francisco, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) swings and misses for strike three, the final out against the San Francisco Giants during the ninth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
Nolan Arenado
Arenado has good numbers against Wacha in his career, going 6-13 with 3 HR. The Cards have been a lot better against RHP this season and have so much power. I do think this game could be a high scoring game here tonight.
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Featured Image:
Jun 7, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jon Gray (22) reacts in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports