Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/22:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shohei Ohtani
- George Kirby
- Michael Wacha
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Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles (-140)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We have a pretty high total between two not-so-great teams. I continually pick on Corbin so I can’t stop now, especially with Baltimore having a healthy IRT. I can see the WAS lineup doing damage, especially the top half. We keep waiting for Soto to wake up and get hot.
WAS 5-star plays: Luis Garcia
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Robinson Chirinos
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-140) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rays – Shane Baz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The Rays certainly got to the overachieving Cortes last night but I don’t think they do the same kind of damage to Montgomery. The Yankees lineup has started to struggle a bit, which is expected with power. I like the way that Rizzo and Torres are swinging it and Judge is always in play.
NYY 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .231 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rangers – Jonathan Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get one of my favorite fantasy pitchers facing off with one of my least favorite pitchers. The Phillies were shut out in a spot that I thought they might have upside in last night. I look for them to put up some runs against Gray and hopefully, that comes with Bryce being back in the lineup.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
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Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins (-175)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Lopez hasn’t been AS dominant recently but he’s so good overall. I think this is a great spot for him and it looks like Vegas agrees with me. Kuhl has been a bit of a surprise and might be worth some attention against the Marlins. Outside of Coors, I’m just not interested in Colorado.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Migel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox (-145)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wacha feels like he should be a decent play at what I expect to be a decent price point. We could be seeing Baez wake up a bit and I think he’s a solid one-off option. I don’t necessarily want to stack against Skubal but I don’t mind having a few mini-stacks of BOS. Games at Fenway have started to have totaled around 10 much of the time, so to see an 8.5 gives me some pause.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-120) @ Oakland A’s
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I read some early All-Star roster predictions and Blackburn was on the AL squad. He has been more than just decent for OAK and while the Mariners did wake up a bit last night, they’ve been very underwhelming. Kirby is a big-time prospect with huge upside against such a weak squad.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Houston Astros (-130)
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have a hard time trying to figure out both of these teams. Both are capable of putting up 7+ in nearly any game but they also have offenses that disappear. Yordan is absolutely rolling at the plate and I like Canha from a cheaper bat standpoint thanks to his familiarity with HOU.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wainwright hasn’t been amazing against MIL but he’s also just good at limiting the damage when he doesn’t have his stuff. Lauer started the season out as an extreme overachiever but he hasn’t fallen apart yet. I like the Cardinals bats against LHPs generally but O’Neill is a big loss right now.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Luis Urias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Pirates – Jerrad Eickhoff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I know we are looking at a 9 total but I just don’t have a ton of interest in this game. I can see a few one-offs or even a mini-stack but neither offense is one that we HAVE to get pieces of. Cruz is still probably too cheap for his pedigree as a prospect.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The big thing will be the status of Machado as he gives the lineup a ton of depth against LHPs. Cronenworth is rolling at the plate and there are a handful of other Padres who have had strong stretches during June. Clevinger is appealing to me but I just don’t know where he’s at in terms of length etc due to all of his injuries/illness situations.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alek Thomas, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Is this the day that Anderson wakes up and realizes he’s just Tyler Anderson? I really don’t know what the answer is but I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives up a few runs in this ballpark. I think the Dodgers can get to Castillo but we know that he’s capable of dominating just about anybody.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Albert Almora
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels (-210)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am more interested in the pitching in this game than anything else. Ohtani had a huge game last night at the plate and now he should carry that over to the mound tonight. We probably should always have a mini-stack of the Angels centered around Trout.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-130) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Cease dominated the TOR lineup last night but I don’t think that Giolito manages to do the same. He’s a different pitcher and I worry about HRs. I think both offenses are squarely in play and so does Vegas with such an aggressive total. Vaughn has been absolutely rolling at the plate.
TOR 5-star plays: Alejandro Kirk
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves (-120)
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I was really shocked to see a total of 9 between these two SPs. I know that Morton hasn’t been dominant but he’s still good. Rodon went thru a bit of a rough stretch but he looked like he figured it out last time out. I can see why there could be some offense in this game but I honestly can see this game ending up 4-2 and being more of a pitcher’s duel.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (-145)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gray has been strong when he’s not on the IL. McKenzie always has impressive upside but he can get hit around too. I don’t think I need to fully stack either side but I wouldn’t mind a few different mini-stacks. I will be using both SPs but more Gray than McKenzie.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- Baltimore Orioles
- Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB Dinger of the Day – Freddie Freeman, LAD
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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