Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/19:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Chris Bassitt
- Brady Singer
- Logan Gilbert
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Tampa Bay Rays (-145) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Corey Kluber
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I realize that Kluber is the favorite in this one but BAL’s offense has been better than TB’s over the last week+. I like the way a few of BAL’s bats are swinging it plus they have some sneaky solid BvP. Lyles is a guy that has frustrated us because he seems to put up a strong outing when we try to stack against him.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Rougned Odor, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-160) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Luis Severino
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Taillon and the Yankees shut down the Jays’ bats yesterday and that bodes well for a guy like Severino. He has 14 Ks in 9.2 innings against TOR this season. Kikuchi should get hit around a little bit but he seems to be similar to Lyles this season.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-185) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Nationals – Jackson Tetreault
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This is the early game on “Peacock”, which drives me absolutely nuts every Sunday. I would LOVE for this game to be on the main slate because of the offensive spot for both teams. If Soto wasn’t struggling, I would feel like he’s a near-lock to hit an HR in this match-up.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-135)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Lindor has an HR in back-to-back games and he has had success against Alcantara. I want to focus on both of the SPs in my builds as this feels like a game that will end 2-1, or something along those lines. Bassitt broke out of a rough stretch by dominating the Brewers in his last start.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
Texas Rangers (-160) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Tigers – Drew Hutchison
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Riley Greene looked very good in his debut yesterday, even picking up his two hits in LvL match-ups. It wouldn’t shock me if he picks up his first HR today. With that being said, I much prefer Dunning and the Rangers side in this game today. Garcia has been rolling at the plate.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Ezequiel Duran, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals (-150) @ Oakland A’s
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
A’s – Jared Koenig
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I have no real desire to attack this game outside of Singer thanks to his great match-up. The A’s are struggling mightily at this point. Koenig has been hit hard so there probably is a bit of upside in a KC stack, I just don’t really trust them with how they haven’t been performing.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros (-180)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a great Sunday night game as a couple of young, promising pitchers square off against dangerous offenses. Kopech left his last start early so there’s an injury risk while the White Sox just beat up Verlander yesterday. The White Sox RHBs intrigues me the most in this game.
CWS 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox (-150)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Andre Pallante
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a match-up of a couple of revers-splits pitchers. Pallante has been more extreme this season which doesn’t bode well for him against BOS. On the other side, Pivetta could be in some trouble as he traditionally has given up more power to RHBs and Arenado/Goldschmidt have hit him well and are showcasing plenty of power.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-160) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Braves – Ian Anderson
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Braves bats have been rolling from a power standpoint and the total makes me believe the weather is decent for bats. Anderson has plenty of upside but I do worry a little bit because he’s been more of reverse splits guy and the Cubs do have right-handed power.
ATL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .287 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (-120) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Twins – Chris Archer
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Kelly has been solid and is somebody I use fairly often but I don’t think I want to go there today. Archer has been respectable but he isn’t going deeper than 5 innings. I think this game has game-stack upside for our GPP builds this afternoon.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alek Thomas, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-135) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Reds – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I always feel like Houser is better than he actually is and maybe that’s just a product of being in the Brewers’ rotation. Overall, Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t been great but they should put up some runs. My gut feeling is that we see 12+ runs in this game.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-170)
Pitchers:
Angels – Kenny Rosenberg
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gilbert is in a very high-upside spot, especially if he finds a way to keep Mike Trout in the ballpark. Ohtani has 6 walks in 9 PAs against Gilbert. The Mariners’ bats have been cool but this could be a spot for them to wake up. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rodriguez hits an HR or steals multiple bases.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-140) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12.5. We get a Coors game with a TON of positive BvP spots to attack today. No wonder we are seeing a total approaching 13 runs. I am always stacking against Snell as I just don’t think he’s “right”. I think that the Rockies bats go overlooked compared to SDs and that’s purely based on the opposing SP.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Austin Nola, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (-185) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. If we hear that Cobb is considered a full-go, he becomes a really solid option against a struggling PIT squad. Keller has a big arm but he just can’t seem to put it all together. I could see him starting out strong here but then running into trouble the 2nd time through the lineup.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Dodgers – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Bieber gets to face the Dodgers without Betts and that’s a big plus. Heaney returning from the IL is a big question mark but he does get a plus match-up. I think the game ends up more of a pitcher’s duel but I can see a few runs being scored in certain match-ups.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- St Louis Cardinals
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt, STL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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