Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/18:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Justin Verlander
- Julio Urias
- Kyle Bradish (Bold GPP!)
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Tampa Bay Rays (-160) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Rays – Jeffery Springs
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think I am going to go overweight on Bradish today. He offers impressive K ability and the TB lineup is really weak. He did struggle against them in one start but that was mainly Arozarena doing damage. Springs has been impressive as an SP but the Orioles have been swinging it decently.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last week.
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really want to take a stand and play Manoah for his upside in such a dangerous match-up. I think the TOR bats can get to Taillon but they might not be able to blow up and win us GPPs as the main stack. Let’s hope Bichette is back today as he has hit Taillon extremely well.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .243 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-240) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Nola and the Phillies should end up being fairly popular. I love the PHI LHBs against Gray. The Nationals have a hot Josh Bell and an always-dangerous Juan Soto. I was a little shocked to see a total of 9 but Friday saw some runs put up between these two.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last week.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-210)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I wonder if people are going to chase Walker’s K performance from last Sunday night. I think that was a perfect storm with LAA’s K rates and the shadows messing with the eyesight of the hitters. The Mets should be popular against Garrett as he hasn’t looked all that strong at the MLB level.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Texas Rangers (-135) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rangers – Taylor Hearn
Tigers – Ronny Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I keep jumping on the Rangers, expecting them to wake up and go on a stretch of putting up runs. They put up some runs against a tough Skubal so why not against Garcia? I don’t love the Tigers’ but Hearn tends to give up a few runs in every outing.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harold Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .053 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Oakland A’s (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brad Keller
A’s – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This game does not intrigue me one bit at this point. We have a low total with two very blah pitchers on the hill. We can definitely use guys as one-offs but they aren’t guys I’m in a hurry to jam in at any point. The A’s have flashed some power recently but that should regress a bit.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Christian Bethancourt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros (-190)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Verlander has been spectacular during his age-39 season. The Astros’ bats got to Giolito last night and I think they get to Cueto today. One big thing that I noticed was that Abreu has 6 HRs against Verlander in his career, which is damn impressive.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ Boston Red Sox (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Red Sox – Kutter Crawford
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. When you see a double-digit game total outside of Coors, you really need to take notice. Both teams have been pretty dangerous all season. I think it’s safe to predict that both of these teams end up in my top-5 stacks.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-170) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Braves – Kyle Wright
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. With the total being low, I would guess that winds are expected to be blowing in during the game. I normally try to sneak some Steele shares into my build but that’s tough to do with how hot Atlanta has been. Wright feels like one of the best pitchers for the day action.
ATL 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Orland Arcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .335 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)
Pitchers:
Twins – Dylan Bundy
D’Backs – Luke Weaver
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Buxton and the Twins started out hot last night but faded. I think they come back out today and swing it really well. The big question is which Dylan Bundy will show up? If Ketel Marte ends up in the lineup, he definitely becomes an option with the guys below.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alek Thomas, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds (-120)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Jason Alexander
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Alexander allows plenty of contact but he has such an extreme groundball rate that I can see him being respectable in CIN. Ashcraft hasn’t been very bad at all but the MIL lineup can be dangerous but they also can disappear. Normally I love stacking action in CIN but I might have to skip that today.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels (-130) @ Seattle Mariners – Game 1
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I feel like game 1 is the Angels’ game for the taking against Flexen. I really do like Sandoval but the match-up isn’t 100% ideal for him. The overall LAA lineup is pretty weak but the top part is so dangerous. Ty France is an excellent one-off from the SEA side.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Luis Torrens
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners – Game 2
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Mariners – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on Vegas and for Seattle to announce an SP.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-140) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Padres – Nick Martinez
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. Another game at Coors and another favorable spot for both teams. The Padres let us down a TON on Friday so it feels like a great spot to attack again. I think that the Rockies’ side will be overlooked again, even after they put up double-digits on Friday night.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Team ISO of .072 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (-180) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Wood
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am interested in both SPs in this match-up. I don’t really like either side against LHPs but there are a few guys who can be used as one-offs. Reynolds is rolling at the plate and he has hit Wood very well in his career.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-215)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Dodgers let us down on Friday and they happen to be a team that I love going back to after failing. I want to be all about Urias but I am also a little nervous because he can show some struggles randomly. Mookie has turned ice cold so look for Freeman and the Turners to heat up.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .335 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- Colorado Rockies
- Boston Red Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bryce Harper, Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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