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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jun 14, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning (33) pitches against the Houston Astros during the second inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Dane Dunning O 4k / O 29.5fpt
TEX vs WAS
Dunning gets a matchup against the Nationals who are implied for only 4 runs. Washington does not strike out at a high rate ranking 26th with a 20.2% strikeout rate against RHPs this season. Dunning relies on a sinker, slider, and changeup. The Nationals rank the 2nd worst against the slider and 4th worst against the changeup in average runs produced per 100 of that specific pitch type thrown. This should lead to more strikeouts for Dunning as utilizes these two pitches heavily. A 21.2% k rate should get the job done today. It would be even better of a spot if Jonah Heim does the catching as opposed to Mitch Garver or Meibrys Viloria. Heim ranks 2nd in the league in pitch framing. Dunning has significant home/road splits pitching better when he is at home.
Michael Lorenzen O 3.5k
LAA vs SEA
There are a lot of similarities to the Dunning play. This is not the best matchup against the Mariners who rank 18th in k rate at 22.1%. However, Lorenzen has some noticeable home/road splits as well. Seattle is implied for 4.1 runs. Lorenzen sports only a 17.2% k rate but has put up some high k totals against teams that do not strike out much including the Nationals. His xERA is better than his actual which indicates he should have better luck going forward. He is utilizing his sinker a lot more this season. It has more drop and break this season which has led to a 10% increase in his groundball rate. Hopefully, the sinker can also improve his strikeout rate. This line just seems to be low.
Dylan Bundy O 18.5fpt / O 3.5k
MIN vs COL
Bundy is coming off of a masterpiece against Arizona. Previously, he had struggled for three consecutive starts. He gets another great matchup today against Colorado. The Rockies are a completely different team when they are on the road. Overall, Colorado ranks 20th with a 21.5% k rate and a 83 wRC+. When they are away, they have a 22% k rate and only a 66 wRC+. Bundy is only 29 years old. Yet somehow his strikeout rate has dropped to 18.8% this season. He had been at least a 21.2% k pitcher throughout his career. His ERA is 5.17 while xERA is 3.83. He gets into a lot of 2 strike counts. I think 4 strikeouts is easily achievable but the fantasy point line is great due to the Rockies struggles on the road.
Merrill Kelly O 4.5k
ARI vs DET
Kelly is another pitcher that gets to enjoy the friendly confines of his home stadium. Arizona will be taking on Detroit. The Tigers have the 3rd-highest strikeout rate against RHPs at 26.8%. Kelly improved his changeup during the offseason which is averaging 221 more revolutions than last season. He is throwing this pitch a lot more and has good results to show for it. The hitting stats allowed on his changeup are down across the board and it is delivering a higher put away %. Detroit struggles to make contact, let alone score runs. Kelly has been able to hit 5 strikeouts several times this season in much tougher spots. This seems very doable for him against Detroit tonight.
Marcus Semien O 6fpt
TEX vs WAS
Texas is taking on Washington and Pablo Espino. Espino has a 2.29 ERA this season but do not be fooled. He has worked out of the bullpen mostly and now has to transition to starter. He is a veteran and has done this in the past but a lot of pitchers struggle when they have to pitch extended innings. His xERA is much higher at 3.57. The Rangers hitters are projected a bit low against Espino. I like Seager and Calhoun as well but Semien is my favorite. He is the only one with stolen base upside. If he swipes one, he is hitting this as long as he reached base with a walk, HBP, or hit. He has had reverse splits which fit with Espino as he also has reverse splits. The leadoff hitter for a team with a 5.2 run total should be projected higher.
Just missed the cut: NYM/MIA NRFI, Corey Seager O 7fpt, Kole Calhoun O 5fpt, Mike Yastrzemski O 6fpt, Goldy O 1.5tb
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
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