DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down four fantasy football players who finished 2021 in excellent fashion… But are they “pretenders” or “ascenders” for 2022?
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Green Bay Packers wide receiver Allen Lazard (13) pulls down a long one-handed catch against Cleveland Browns cornerback Greedy Williams (26) in the first quarter during their football game Saturday, December 25, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin Apc Packvsbrowns 1225211258djp
Davis Mills (QB) Houston Texans
It feels difficult to recall but Davis Mills had a strong fantasy football finish in 2021. In the final five weeks of the season Mills maintained 17.76-FPPG and was the QB10 overall during that stretch. During weeks 15-18 he finished with the following scores: 18, 15.6, 18.1, 9.9 and 27.2, respectively.
The end to Mills’ season was certainly a step in the right direction. Looking back on previous weeks we saw flashes of his fantasy potential when he scored 24.7-fantasy points against the Patriots in Week 5. New England allowed 193.8 passing yards per-game as a defense and Mills threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns.
Again, we saw Mills’ potential flash in Week 8 against the Rams. The Texans’ quarterback finished with 310 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Mills tallied 21.4-fantasy points in that Week 8 contest. The Rams allowed 16.3-FPPG against the quarterback position in 2021, fourth best in the league.
Mills was the leader of the offense down the stretch and the whole unit began to click towards the end of the season. The Texans finished 2-2 as a team for the final four games; in that span they averaged 25.75 points per-game against the Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers and Titans.
While the Texans will struggle in 2022, Mills will continue to play from behind (which can be great for quarterbacks) and further progress as a fantasy asset. Mills should not be looked at as a QB1 option for fantasy managers but he certainly falls into play as a QB2 for SuperFlex leagues and Two-QB leagues. For Single-QB leagues he will have streaming value. Additionally, he is worth a pickup in dynasty leagues as a fill-in option or as a backup with a little upside.
Final Verdict: Ascender
Check out the Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks at WR for Best Ball
Allen Lazard (WR) Green Bay Packers
This one felt surprising to me once I found it in my research. But Allen Lazard was quietly the WR6 over the final five weeks of the fantasy football season. He scored 12.4-FPPG during the aforementioned time frame and with Devante Adams departed, Lazard looks like a great option for fantasy football in 2022.
When Lazard came into the league, his frame was going to be what carried him as an undrafted free agent. He’s 6’4” and 227-pounds. In Lazard’s first three seasons he did little for Green Bay’s offense by-way-of touchdowns, but in 2021 he scored eight touchdowns – more than his first three years combined (six total).
During weeks 14 – 18, quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw five touchdowns to Lazard, meaning Lazard only caught three touchdowns in the first 12 games. In these final five games, Lazard achieved overall finishes of WR8, WR64, WR21, WR13 and WR11.
Looking forward into 2022, Aaron Rodgers will need pass catchers he can trust now that Devante Adams’ 169 targets and 11 touchdowns have departed for Las Vegas. The upside here is that when Rodgers finds a target that he relies on, he will make plays happen for that player and look his way repeatedly. Given the void at the receiver position, Lazard immediately becomes a player of trust and familiarity for Rodgers.
Lazard is someone you should be targeting in all fantasy formats, especially in a format like Best Ball. He is likely going to be free in fantasy drafts because of how far he is dropping. On Underdog Fantasy, Lazard is currently the WR50 based on ADP. At least one receiver will be fantasy relevant for Green Bay in 2022. Lazard is a free, high-upside, bet based on his ADP.
Final Verdict: Ascender
Rashaad Penny (RB) Seattle Seahawks
Penny balled out in the final five games of the fantasy football season. In those five weeks he was the RB1 overall by a large margin and averaged 21.5-FPPG. Just like the aforementioned Amon St. Brown, Penny had an incredible run guided by injuries and his outlook for 2022 is clouded by rookie draft capital at the running back position.
Chris Carson was set to be the lead dog for Seattle’s running back group in 2021. A serious neck injury derailed his season though (and possible his career too). In Carson’s career he has averaged 15.69 carries and 0.63 touchdowns per-game with Seattle. This was a huge injury that Seattle had to fill. They experimented with several running backs for various roles: DeeJay Dallas, Alex Collins, Travis Homer and Adrian Peterson just to name a few. Ultimately Penny broke away from the crowd and really set himself apart, which allowed him to command a valuable workload for the final five games. Carson still does not have a timetable to return from his injury. The rest of the running backs are clear role/depth players or have been cut.
What is scarier for Penny in 2022 is the draft capital that went behind Kenneth Walker III. Walker is a tackle-shedding, early-down running back. He was the second running back picked in the rookie draft, selected at 2.09. In today’s NFL, an early second-round selection should be a day-one contributor for an NFL team and Walker is no slouch. Penny’s usage becomes convoluted due to the talent and draft capital behind Walker. Admittedly, Walker will not replace Penny outright (at least to start).
We also cannot overlook the lack of talent for Seattle’s quarterbacks. Projected starter Drew Lock is far from a long term solution for an NFL team, but he or Geno Smith will be under center in 2022. Lock’s tendency to make mistakes may allow teams to stack the box and prevent a run-first attack, Seattle’s bread and butter. Stacking the box becomes an even greater concern if Geno Smith is the starter. These quarterbacks will likely lead Seattle to a losing season.
Finally we have to bring up Penny’s clear injury history. Since being a first-round selection for the Seahawks in 2018, Penny has missed 28 games. That is an average of 7 games per-season. The injury list is extensive as well: grade-three ACL tear, several soft tissue injuries and a broken hand (and that’s not all). There is a high chance that Penny will miss games in 2022 and there is a decent chance it will be from a multi-week injury.
Penny was a lot of fun for fantasy managers who rode his 2021 finish. But in 2022, this is a player that will come back down to Earth due to his offense regressing and the depth chart. Fantasy managers should look to draft Penny as a low RB3/flex who may add depth to your team. Unless Walker gets injured, this will be a split backfield. Split backfields on bad teams can lead to disappointing fantasy outcomes.
Final Verdict: Pretender
Check out DFSArmy’s “Way Too” Early 12-Team Mock Draft
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) Detroit Lions
St. Brown’s stretch to close out 2021 was nothing short of league-winning material for fantasy stakeholders. For the first 12 weeks St. Brown was all but forgotten, then he went on a 125.6-fantasy point heater over the course of the final six weeks. During this incredible week 13 – 18 run, he averaged 20.9-FPPG and was the WR2 overall (only Cooper Kupp finished higher).
While you cannot ignore St. Brown’s dominance in 2021, there is important context to consider. First, D’Andre Swift was injured in weeks 13 – 16 and might as well have sat out in Week 17. This becomes important because Swift averaged six targets and 0.53 touchdowns per-game in 2021. Then, second, you have to exam the absence of T.J. Hockenson. The Lions’ tight end missed weeks 14 – 18 and was a valuable piece for this offense. Hockenson averaged seven targets and 0.33 touchdowns per-game. Missing crucial offensive players certainly played a role in St. Brown’s incredible usage to finish the 2021 season.
Then we have to analyze the Lions’ depth chart in 2022. The most notable player at the receiver position to challenge St. Brown is rookie Jameson Williams from Alabama. The Lions view Williams as a crucial piece from this draft. So much so, they traded up 20 spots in order to acquire him as the 12th overall pick in the draft. In addition, DJ Chark Jr. was added to Detroit as well. While Chark suffered a bad fantasy season in 2021, he has had success at the NFL level. In the end, these players are just more mouths to feed for Detroit.
With the mix of injuries, jumbled target-distribution and depth chart explained, St. Brown’s strong 2021 leaves nothing but a mirky outlook for 2022. You have to remember that these targets will be thrown by Jared Goff too, a very mediocre quarterback. It is hard to imagine more than three fantasy-relevant pass catchers on Detroit. St. Brown can be added by fantasy managers but refrain from drafting him as anything higher than a WR3/flex depth-player.
Final Verdict: Pretender
MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM
“Way Too” Early Mock Drafts:
Best Ball:
- QBs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
- RBs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
- WRs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
- TEs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
Early Redraft Rankings:
- QB rankings 1-12
- RB rankings 1-6 and RB rankings 7-12
- WR rankings 1-6 and WR rankings 7-12
- TE rankings 1-6 and TE rankings 7-12
Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter, @GarettThomas.