DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down which 2022 wide receivers are falling in best ball drafts, but can still provide incredible best ball value. ADP’s as of 05/03/2022.
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Nov 8, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson II (12) makes a catch in the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
Allen Robinson – Los Angeles Rams – Best Ball ADP (78.7)
The recently acquired Allen Robinson finally escapes Chicago. There is undeniable talent in Robinson and this move could be exactly what he needs to resurrect his fantasy stock. LA will utilize Robinson’s abilities more efficiently and consistently, when compared to the 2021 Bears.
After finishing 2019 and 2020 as the WR11 and WR12 overall, 2021 saw Robinson fall to WR86 overall. Coming into the season he was a consensus top-12 receiver. Robinson was a clear bust for his fantasy stakeholders and let me tell you, starting him was painful. It was nearly criminal if you relied on him for zero-RB draft strategies as I did in three of my five season-long leagues. But 2022 Robinson has promise.
Let’s focus on 2019 and 2020 where Robinson finished within the top-12 receivers. During this stretch he was the WR1 inside an offense with a bad quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky. This was achieved with Robinson’s talent but also Trubisky’s knack for hyper targeting. Obviously there is an upgrade at quarterback with the Rams, but there is a downgrade in his role as Robinson is the clear WR2 on roster.
Taking a look at Robert Woods, who partly occupied the WR2 spot for LA in 2021, you can see that in the weeks he was healthy (weeks 1 – 9) Woods was the WR11 overall. Additionally Woods was able to amass 12.7-FPPG over this time frame and even achieved ceiling scores of 21.2-fantasy points and 19.2-points. Odell Beckham JR was acquired once Robert Woods sustained a season-ending injury. From weeks 12 – 18, Beckham was the WR21 overall and scored 10.2-FPPG. While Cooper Kupp will be the clear WR1 for the Rams, the WR2 role in this offense has the ability to finish inside the top-20.
From an injury standpoint, Robinson is one play away from being the WR1 in this offense and we know the value in that role. While no one wishes harm to Cooper Kupp, injuries happen and if Kupp were to get hurt it would presumably boost Robinson into the top-12 group of wide receivers.
There is clear evidence the WR2 role in Los Angeles can finish as a top-20 receiver, yet Robinson is going as the WR35 in best ball drafts. Capitalize on his best ball value because Robinson has lots of upside at this price.
Check out the Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks at RB for Best Ball
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Kansas City Chiefs – Best Ball ADP (81.8)
Going off the board as the WR39, JuJu is going too low in best ball drafts. The Chiefs’ quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has perennially shown that he has the ability to carry two pass catchers into the top-12 at their position. Smith-Schuster will aim to be one of these pass catchers, although closer to the top-24 range.
Smith-Schuster was signed to make up for what was loss in Tyreek Hill’s departure. While Hill and Smith-Schuster have differing skillsets as a receiver, there will be 159 targets voided by Hill’s departure. In addition, the Chiefs throw the ball 60-percent of the time or more. Since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, the Chiefs have been a top-10 team in passing percentage (top-six in the last two seasons).
Smith-Schuster is a 25-year-old veteran and there is more to be squeezed out for fantasy in 2022. The former USC Trojan has finished inside the top-18 at his position three times and in 2018 he finished as the WR9 overall. While in Pittsburgh, Smith-Schuster seemingly regressed as a player over the last three seasons. This regression took the wind out of Smith-Schuster’s sails, but going from Ben Roethlisberger to Patrick Mahomes is a huge upgrade. One that should place Smith-Schuster into the top-24 at his position.
Looking at the other receivers in Kansas City, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling come to mind first. Neither player has shown the ability to take the next-step in the NFL. Additionally, the Chiefs selected Skyy Moore in the second-round of the NFL Draft. Moore has talent and can move around the field as a receiver. He is somewhat of a threat to Smith-Schuster, but rookie wide receivers have a rough history in the NFL during their first season.
Clearly Smith-Schuster was brought into Kansas City to sure-up the receiver room. While he is no Tyreek Hill, Smith-Schuster will get targets and will be a threat in this offense in 2022. That alone is enough to justify his best ball value at WR39.
Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos – Best Ball ADP (79.7) & (63.5)
Between one of these players there will be a clear breakout for fantasy. Right now it is extremely difficult to tell who will prevail. At a deeper discount I am targeting Courtland Sutton who is going as the WR33. Jerry Jeudy is equally talented and is a fine player to pick as well, he costs a little more than Sutton at WR26. Both players could finish inside the top-15 at their position.
Jeudy and Sutton both have been busts for fantasy thus far. Outside of Sutton’s 2019 season where he was the WR19 overall, neither receiver has finished higher than WR44 in the last two seasons. But there is no shortage of talent from Jeudy or Sutton. The biggest reason for their poor fantasy showings is because Denver hasn’t had a reliable quarterback since Peyton Manning. That is about to change now that Russell Wilson has been shipped to Denver.
In the previous two seasons Russell Wilson has carried two receivers near-or-inside the top-12 for fantasy. In 2020 and 2021, Tyler Lockett finished as the WR9 and WR13 respectively; DK Metcalf finished as the WR7 and WR12 as well. Lastly, Wilson — despite 2021 being a down-year and missing three games — finished with more touchdowns, higher yards-per-attempt, higher yards per game and less interceptions than the Denver quarterbacks a season ago. Wilson is an exciting upgrade for this Denver football team and it will carry over to Jeudy and Sutton.
The AFC West division is going to be a high scoring one too. Featuring the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders, there will be lots of points scored and teams will be forced to keep up. Back-and-forth affairs bode well for receivers in fantasy football and the ceiling games from Sutton and/or Jeudy may appear at a decent rate.
Whether you are a Jeudy believer or Sutton, both have a great chance to take a huge next-step for fantasy football. Sutton is the cheaper of the two, which makes him the preferred option for best ball value, but leaving your draft with Jeudy is still a win. It would not surprise the fantasy community if one of these players finished inside the top-12. There is upside to chase here.
Honorable Mention Best Ball Value Picks (ordered by ADPs)
- Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – ADP 67.8
- Brandin Cooks – Houston Texans – ADP 71.5
- Rashod Bateman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP 79.1
- Robert Woods – Tennessee Titans – ADP 91
MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM
Best Ball:
- QBs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
- RBs – Top-3 Best Ball Value Picks in 2022
- TEs – Top-3 Value Picks in 2022
Early Redraft Rankings:
- QB rankings 1-12
- RB rankings 1-6 and RB rankings 7-12
- WR rankings 1-6 and WR rankings 7-12
- TE rankings 1-6 and TE rankings 7-12
Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter, @GarettThomas.